Fallin's Pollster Claims Clear Leader Mantle

Mary Fallin is the clear leader in the 2010 race for governor of Oklahoma, her pollster and chief strategist claims.

Ed Goeas, president and CEO of The Tarrance Group in Alexandria, VA, told those listening in on a Fallin conference call that his firm's survey was taken in June of 600 likely voters.

He said it showed three out of four were unfamiliar with Fallin’s Republican challenger, Senator Randy Brogdon of Owasso.

Goeas said Fallin leads Democatic Attorney General Drew Edmonson, 53 percent to 37 percent, and Democratic Lt. Governor Jari Askins, 54 percent to 35 percent, in head-to-head matchups.

"At this point in the campaign she has somewhat higher name ID than either of the two of them,” Goeas said.

The survey showed 75 percent had never heard of Brogdon.

Goeas said the survey showed 62 percent had a favorable opinion of Fallin while 20 percent had an unfavorable view. Brogdon had 6 percent favorable, 6 percent unfavorable.

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Wade Aims For Hat Trick, Endorses Askins

Elk City Daily News Publisher Larry Wade is trying for a hat trick: The veteran newspaperman was the first to endorse David Boren and Brad Henry in their campaigns for governor and now, he's out with an endorsement of Jari Askins.

Wade wrote, "Having looked at the field, we believe she is clearly the person in the position to serve the people of Oklahoma as a strong governor for the next term…"

Noting that Askins "has the broadest range of experience of any of the candidates of either party," the newspaper said, "Her mind is keen. Her integrity is spotless. Her heart is good. She is the kind of leader who brings people together to deal with problems and who has proved that she works to build consensus."

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Edmondson Makes Governor's Race Official

Attorney General Drew Edmondson confirmed today that he will seek the Democratic nomination for governor, a seat once held by his uncle, the late J. Howard Edmondson.

Edmondson, the son of the late Congressman Ed Edmondson, joins Lt. Governor Jari Askins in the race, which is expected to see a record sum spent in a Democratic primary for the office.

Edmondson said his advisers believe the race will cost between $5 million and $6 million: "It is going to be a very expensive race," he said.

Republicans Mary Fallin, 5th District congresswoman, and Randy Brogdon, state senator from Owasso, have announced as candidates for their party's nomination.

Edmondson said the biggest issue facing the next governor will be the state's economy and budget, which this year experienced a $900 million shortfall due to declining energy prices and the faltering economy.

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Edmondson To Announce He's Running

Attorney General Drew Edmondson will announce he's a candidate for the Democratic nomination for governor tomorrow, sources say.

Edmondson's entry into the race sets the stage for what most believe will be one of the most interesting, and contested, Democratic primaries for governor, pitting two statewide office holders with access to huge warchests battling over the airwaves and everywhere else.

Edmondson has scheduled press conferences in Oklahoma City, Tulsa and Muskogee. He's already created a campaign fund and initiated an "Edmondson 2010" Internet site.

The press conferences are scheduled for 10 a.m. at the Capitol, 2 p.m. at the Tulsa Press Club and 4:30 p.m. at the Muskogee County Courthouse.

Democrat Askins, of Duncan, Republican Congresswoman Mary Fallin of Oklahoma City and Senator Randy Brogdon of Owasso have already entered the race.

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J. C. Watts Says He Won't Run For Governor

J. C. Watts announced today that because of business and contractural obligations in Washington, he will not seek the Republican nomination for governor next year.

The announcement followed 24 hours of speculation he would opt not to make the race. The former 4th District congressman has built a thriving lobbying business and is in demand as a public speaker at conservative and business events.

Watts issued this statement: "After much prayer and deliberation with my family and friends. It is with a heavy heart that my wife and I have decided not to run for governor in 2010. I have observed with great interest and pride the progress my state is making under the bold and innovative leadership of the state legislature. Nothing would give me greater joy and satisfaction than to go work with these leaders to grow and prosper Oklahoma. However, my current business and contractual obligations create hurdles that I cannot overcome at this time. Oklahoma has much to offer both nationally and internationally. I would challenge the candidates running for governor to put their best foot forward to advocate for us on both stages. The new Governor must aggressively pursue and promote the virtues of our state. I would cherish that opportunity, but unfortunately that will not be in 2010. Many Oklahomans, Republican and Democrat, red, yellow, black, brown and white, from all walks of life encouraged me to make the race. I am deeply honored, humbled and grateful for the confidence they have shown in me.
I'm sorry we won't fulfill our goals together. I will continue to work for a prosperous and thriving Oklahoma, this glorious place we call home and the rest of the world calls America."

Congresswoman Mary Fallin, an announced candidate for the GOP nomination for governor, said, "J. C. Watts has been a great friend and a great asset to the people of Oklahoma. He is a popular figure both here and nationally and I am sure he will continue to find success in or out of politics. Decisions like this are never easy but at the end of the day I am sure he did what he felt was best for him and his family."

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Poll: 80 Percent Believe Watts Is Out

If J. C. Watts announces he's a candidate for governor, it will surprise many who have voted in today's online poll on The McCarville Report Online.

Thus far, about 80 percent believe Watts will announce he's not running. The poll can be found on the top right side of this page; if you've not yet voted, please do so.

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Pollster Suggests Watts May Eye Senate Race

A North Carolina-based pollster, Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling, suggested today in a KTOK interview that former Congressman J. C. Watts may be eyeing the U. S. Senate seat now held by Tom Coburn as well as the governor's race.

Jensen's comment came in an interview with the station's Reid Mullins. Jensen was discussing a new poll by his firm that shows Congresswoman Mary Fallin leading the field of candidates for governor next year. Watts, who has indicated he's considering the race, was included in the poll. Also included were Lt. Governor Jari Askins and Attorney General Drew Edmondson. Senator Randy Brogdon, a declared Republican candidate, apparently was not included in the poll.

Coburn has not yet announced if he'll seek reelection; he said on Monday he will announce his decision on June 1st. Former Governor Frank Keating reportedly has his eye on the seat if Coburn opts not to seek reelection.

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SPR Tracks Oklahoma Governor's Race

By Hastings Wyman/Southern Political Report ~ While at least two earlier surveys have shown US Rep. Mary Fallin (R-OK) ahead of unannounced-but-probable contender J. C. Watts (R), a former congressman, the latest poll for next year’s GOP gubernatorial primary, taken by Wilson Research Strategies, gives Watts 39% to Fallin’s 36%, with 5% for state Sen. Randy Brogdon (R), a social conservative. Watts is expected to announce any day now. In media interviews, analysts of the Wilson poll suggest Watts gained as it began to sink in that he was likely to run. Once the only African-American Republican in Congress, Watts had high approval ratings in all the recent surveys. Meanwhile, The McCarville Report says that the records show Watts did not vote in the 2006 gubernatorial election. Watts says he sent in an absentee ballot with his wife’s ballot and doesn’t know why hers was recorded but his was not.

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McIntosh County: No Record Of Watts' Vote In 2006 Governor's Race But He Says He Voted Absentee

Examination of the voting records of the five announced and potential candidates for governor next year shows that one of them, former Congressman J. C. Watts, apparently did not vote in the 2006 general election for governor.

At least that's what the record shows. However, Watts insists through spokesman Chad Alexander that he did vote, and he and his wife, Frankie, completed their absentee ballots and mailed them together. Her ballot is shown as having been received, while his is not.

Watts, who registered to vote in McIntosh County on June 28, 2004, listing a rural address a few miles outside his hometown of Eufaula, always votes by absentee ballot, county election board records show.

The records show he voted once in 2006, in the July 25th Republican primary. But there's no record that he voted in the general election, in which Congressman Ernest Istook was pitted against incumbent Governor Brad Henry, a race Henry easily won. Two calls were made to the McIntosh County Election Board to confirm that no record exists of a Watts vote in the general election and Alexander said today he also spoke with the election board and confirms there's no record of Watts' absentee ballot having been received.

Watts has not yet announced he's a candidate for the Republican nomination for governor, but he is expected to do so soon. He is now a Washington lobbyist.

Records in Stephens County show that Democrat Jari Askins, lieutenant governor who is an announced candidate for her party's nomination for governor, registered to vote at her current address in Duncan on October 20, 1971. She has voted at least 67 times. In 2006, the record shows, she voted on February 14th, April 4th, July 25th, August 22nd and November 7th.

Records in Tulsa County show that Republican Randy Brogdon, state senator who is an announced candidate for his party's nomination for governor, registered to vote at his current address in Owasso on August 13th, 1980. He has voted at least 38 times. In 2006, the record shows, he voted on July 25th, August 22nd and November 7th.

Records in Oklahoma County show that Democrat Drew Edmondson, attorney general who has not yet announced he is a candidate for his party's nomination for governor but is expected to do so, registered to vote at his current address on December 18th, 2005. He has voted at least 10 times; he was a regular voter at his previous address as well. In 2006, the record shows, he voted on March 7th, May 9th, July 25th, August 22nd and November 7th.

Records in Oklahoma County show that Republican Mary Fallin, congresswoman who is an announced candidate for her party's nomination for governor, registered to vote at her current address on October 24th, 1986. She has voted at least 63 times. In 2006, the record shows, she voted on March 7th, July 25th, August 22nd and November 7th.

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Soon: Vote History Of Gubernatorial Hopefuls

How often have the announced and potential candidates for governor voted in elections? Soon, The McCarville Report Online examines the voting histories of Jari Askins, Randy Brogdon, Drew Edmondson, Mary Fallin and J. C. Watts.

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Brogdon? Fallin? Watts? Take Your Pick!

The McCarville Report Online's new poll, this one of the Republican primary for governor next year, includes former Congressman J. C. Watts, who has not yet announced he's a candidate but is expected to do so soon. You'll find the poll near the bottom of this page on the right side.

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Poll: It Would Be A Fallin-Watts Horse Race

A new statewide poll to be released today shows that if former Congressman J. C. Watts joins Congresswoman Mary Fallin and Senator Randy Brogdon in the race for the Republican nomination for governor, Fallin and Watts would be in a horse race.

The poll, conducted by Wilson Research Strategies of 500 likely GOP primary voters from May 7th to May 9th, "indicates a very tight race for the Republican nomination for Governor," the analysis reports. "Former Congressman and Corporation Commissioner J.C. Watts leads Congresswoman Mary Fallin 39% to 36% if the Republican primary election for Governor were held today. Randy Brogdon receives five percent (5%) support."

Fallin, the poll shows, leads Watts in three of the state's five congressional districts, including the one Watts previously represented in Congress.

The poll shows Watts leading Fallin in "Congressional District 1 (52% for Watts to 19% for Fallin), CD 2 (41% to 17%) and in the Tulsa Media Market overall (50% to 17%). Fallin does lead in CD 4 (43% versus 34%) and CD 5 (53% to 29%). In CD 3, Fallin narrowly leads Watts 42% to 37%."

The poll was not taken for any of the candidates, a WRS spokesman said.

The WRS findings conflict with a previous poll by Fallin's pollster, The Tarrance Group of Washington. That poll found Fallin leading Watts 45.3 percent 25.9 percent. Brogdon, of Owasso, got 5 percent. The poll found Fallin leading Watts by about 18 percent in the 4th District and by more than 20 percent in Oklahoma City's 5th District.

The WRS poll analysis notes the previous poll by The Tarrance Group: "Early trends in a primary campaign like this one can also give us important information about the course of the race. In this case we can examine trend between our results and the results of a survey conducted by the Tarrance Group on behalf of the Fallin campaign which was released publicly on April 28. The Tarrance Group survey showed Fallin leading Watts 48% to 36% despite J.C. Watts having higher favorable ratings than Mary Fallin (79% favorable for Watts versus 77% for Fallin). This discrepancy between the ballot and the candidates’ relative favorable ratings was unusual. A 46% vote conversion rate in the Tarrance survey for J.C. Watts may indicate that many Republican primary voters had not yet begun to consider him as a gubernatorial candidate. His personal popularity was not translated into votes among an electorate who had not thought of him as a candidate before the
survey. On the other hand, Mary Fallin’s 62% vote conversion rate is more indicative
of being the only well-known candidate in a primary, reinforcing the idea that voters had not yet considered J.C. Watts a candidate. As Republican primary voters have become acquainted with the idea of J.C. Watts running for Governor, his support has grown to 39% and Fallin’s has declined to 36%. This fifteen point swing is consistent with J.C. Watts’ edge in favorable ratings and shows that this is now a two-candidate race in the minds of most voters."

One pro-Fallin analyst, given the district-by-district results of the WRS poll, said the two most important districts are the 4th and the 5th, where Fallin and Watts are about equal in name identification. He said that if the results in the 4th and 5th Districts are accurate, "JC needs to be given a reality check on his 'Republicans not happy with the candidates' quote because they may very well have been talking about him and not her."

A Watts supporter and veteran GOP official said the Tulsa area results "should trouble Mary and her troops. That's a scary number in the state's second-largest media market."

Other previous polls have found Fallin with a substantial lead over Watts, who has not yet announced if he'll get into the race. Sources told The McCarville Report Online on Monday that he will announce this week.

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Is Watts About To Announce In Governor's Race?

There's word today from multiple sources that former 4th District Congressman J. C. Watts, now a Washington lobbyist, is about to enter the 2010 governor's race.

Watts has said for weeks he'll make a decision by Memorial Day. If he gets into the race for the Republican nomination, he'll join Congresswoman Mary Fallin and State Senator Randy Brogdon of Owasso, both of whom already have announced.

In what appears to be a coincidence, word that Watts may be about to enter the race comes at the same time as word there's a new statewide poll that will be released on Tuesday showing that if Watts does enter the race, he will be in a competitive position with Fallin, considered the front-runner for the nomination.

"He's at 95 percent (to run)," said one source in a position to know.

Fallin's pollster, The Tarrance Group in Washington, earlier distributed a memo to supporters showing Fallin in the lead. The late April poll showed Fallin preferred among registered Republicans with 45.3 percent of the vote to 25.9 percent for Watts. Brogdon, of Owasso, got 5 percent.

A SoonerPoll released earlier this month showed Fallin at 48 percent, Watts at 34 percent.

Democrats Jari Askins, lieutenant governor, and Drew Edmondson, attorney general, are the top Democrats. Askins has announced, Edmondson has not.

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Online Poll: Brogdon Takes The Lead

Senator Randy Brogdon has surged ahead in The McCarville Report Online's unscientific poll of the governor's race.

Congresswoman Mary Fallin was ahead in the early voting, with 58 percent; she has fallen to 24 percent while Brogdon has surged from 20 percent to 62 percent with about 330 total votes cast thus far.

Brogdon's surge followed posts on several pro-Brogdon blogs about the poll. Our poll's analytics show most of Brogdon's votes are coming from a handful of addresses.

Lt. Governor Jari Askins was at 17 percent and is now at 10 percent. Attorney General Drew Edmondson was at 5 percent and has the same percentage today.

The poll asks, "If the candidates for governor are Askins, Brogdon, Edmondson and Fallin, who wins?" The still-active poll can be found by scrolling down on the right side of this page.

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Poll: If The Candidates For Governor Are...

Our totally unscientific online poll of candidates in the 2010 gubernatorial race continues as Congresswoman Mary Fallin leads in the early voting.

Our poll asks, "If the candidates for governor are Jari Askins, Randy Brogdon, Drew Edmondson and Mary Fallin, who wins?"

Thus far, Fallin leads with 58 percent. Brogdon, the second Republican in the poll, has 20 percent. Democrats Askins and Edmondson have 17 percent and 5 percent, respectively.

The poll is on the right side of this page; scroll down to find it and cast your vote.

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Fallin: 'Little bit insulted' By Watts' Comments

By Jerry Bohnen/NewsRadio 1000 KTOK ~ As an already-announced candidate for the Republican nomination for Governor, U.S. Representative Mary Fallin indicated Thursday she didn't like what former Congressman J.C. Watts said about the field of candidates to date.

"I was a little bit insulted when he said there were no quality candidates in the race for governor," said Fallin in an interview on KTOK's First News with Reid Mullins.

"I spent a lot of time, investing my time and effort to represent the state, but he's a great friend." Fallin laughed as she made the reference to the insult.

It was Wednesday when reporters interviewed Watts, who is exploring the possibility of running against Fallin and Owasso State Senator Randy Brogdon in the bid for the GOP nomination.

When pressed about his "quality" comment, Watts said it's what voters have told him. "I think that's their concern. Does that mean that we don't have good candidates? I'm not saying that."

Watts went on to say he didn't mean to be "ungracious to anybody" or "disrespectful or anything."

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Poll: Fallin With Huge Lead Over Brogdon, Watts; Askins Leads Edmondson By Slight Margin

The SoonerPoll reports that Congresswoman Mary Fallin has a huge lead over possible gubernatorial primary opponent J. C. Watts and announced opponent Senator Randy Brogdon.

The late April poll shows Fallin preferred among registered Republicans with 45.3 percent of the vote to 25.9 percent for Watts, who has not announced his candidacy. Brogdon, of Owasso, got 5 percent.

In a two-way race for the Democratic nomination Lt. Governor Jari Askins had 33.9 percent and Attorney General Drew Edmondson had 28.6 percent.

The sampling was of 168 registered Democrats, 139 registered Republicans and 11 independents. It was conducted April 23-26 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.5 percentage points.

Of the Republicans surveyed, 23.7 percent indicated they did not have a preference or declined to answer.

"I think J.C. not having been on the ballot since 2002 is having an impact on his numbers. Memories are short in politics," said Bill Shapard of The SoonerPoll, which he heads with political science professor, author and pollster Keith Gaddie.

"I think if J.C. is going to run and be a viable candidate, he's almost going to have to reintroduce himself to the electorate. We've had a few more football stars since he last ran," Shapard told The Associated Press.

Shapard said the poll shows Askins and Edmondson "are well known among the Democratic electorate, which is evidently divided between the two. I think that is going to be a dogfight primary if Edmondson finally commits to the race."

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Edmondson Has Money Lead In Governor's Race

The Associated Press reports that Democratic Attorney General Drew Edmondson has taken the early lead in fundraising in the 2010 governor's race.

A report prepared for filing with the Oklahoma Ethics Commission on Thursday shows Edmondson, who has not yet officially announced as a candidate, had raised more than $289,000 and had almost $473,000 in the bank.

Edmondson's quarterly total was more than twice as much as other major figures in the race, Democratic Lt. Governor Jari Askins and Republican Congresswoman Mary Fallin.

Fallin's report showed she has raised $108,565. Askins has not yet filed her report, but spokesman Don Hoover said she's raised more than $116,000.

Republican Senator Randy Brogdon, an announced candidate, has raised about $27,000.

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Watts Refers Questions To Former Manager

Former Congressman J. C. Watts, who has said he is "looking at" the 2010 governor's race, today issued a memo telling recipients that his former campaign manager, Chad Alexander, is the contact for questions about the governor's race.

Alexander, also a former Republican Party chairman, sent the memo:

"To: Political Reporters, Editors & Producers. Re: J.C. Watts, Jr. Contact Information. Former Congressman J.C. Watts, Jr., requests all media seeking comments concerning the possible 2010 gubernatorial campaign or any inquiries into the 2010 governor's race be directed to Chad Alexander. Alexander is a former Watts' campaign manager and a longtime friend and associate. He also is former Republican party state chairman."

Alexander served as Oklahoma co-coordinator of John McCain's presidential race last year. Ironically, Democrats pounced, and Republicans recoiled, after statements by Watts last year that seemed to indicate he favored Barack Obama in the race; The Associated Press circulated a story saying Watts was considering casting his vote for Obama. Watts sought to clear the air following publication of those remarks, saying he had not endorsed Obama. But those remarks, and more recent comments criticial of Republicans in Congress, have stirred considerable discussion about him in GOP circles.

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Fallin Poll: She Leads Watts, Brogdon

Supporters of Congresswoman Mary Fallin are touting the results of an in-house poll by The Tarrance Group that measures her strength against former Congressman J. C. Watts as speculation swirls that he may enter the Republican primary for governor.

Fallin and Senator Randy Brogdon of Owasso have announced they are running. Watts has said he's thinking about it and may make a decision in a few weeks.

The poll reports, "In a trial ballot with Mary Fallin, J.C. Watts, and Randy Brogdon, Fallin has 48% support, including 23% 'definite' support. Watts has 34% support, including 15% 'definite' support and Brogdon receives 4% support, including 2% 'definite' support. The remaining 13% of the Republican electorate is undecided."

The poll also reports that Fallin has a 77 percent favorable rating and Watts has a 79 percent favorable rating.

Fallin, the poll shows, "has majority support from key regions like the Oklahoma City DMA (64%) and from key GOP primary electorate demographic groups like seniors (53%), weekly church attendees (54%), and veterans (54%)...Fallin and Watts are well known and well liked by Republican primary voters. However, on a trial ballot, GOP primary voters prefer Mary Fallin to J.C. Watts by a double digit margin."

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