Poll: It Would Be A Fallin-Watts Horse Race
A new statewide poll to be released today shows that if former Congressman J. C. Watts joins Congresswoman Mary Fallin and Senator Randy Brogdon in the race for the Republican nomination for governor, Fallin and Watts would be in a horse race.
The poll, conducted by Wilson Research Strategies of 500 likely GOP primary voters from May 7th to May 9th, "indicates a very tight race for the Republican nomination for Governor," the analysis reports. "Former Congressman and Corporation Commissioner J.C. Watts leads Congresswoman Mary Fallin 39% to 36% if the Republican primary election for Governor were held today. Randy Brogdon receives five percent (5%) support."
Fallin, the poll shows, leads Watts in three of the state's five congressional districts, including the one Watts previously represented in Congress.
The poll shows Watts leading Fallin in "Congressional District 1 (52% for Watts to 19% for Fallin), CD 2 (41% to 17%) and in the Tulsa Media Market overall (50% to 17%). Fallin does lead in CD 4 (43% versus 34%) and CD 5 (53% to 29%). In CD 3, Fallin narrowly leads Watts 42% to 37%."
The poll was not taken for any of the candidates, a WRS spokesman said.
The WRS findings conflict with a previous poll by Fallin's pollster, The Tarrance Group of Washington. That poll found Fallin leading Watts 45.3 percent 25.9 percent. Brogdon, of Owasso, got 5 percent. The poll found Fallin leading Watts by about 18 percent in the 4th District and by more than 20 percent in Oklahoma City's 5th District. The WRS poll analysis notes the previous poll by The Tarrance Group: "Early trends in a primary campaign like this one can also give us important information about the course of the race. In this case we can examine trend between our results and the results of a survey conducted by the Tarrance Group on behalf of the Fallin campaign which was released publicly on April 28. The Tarrance Group survey showed Fallin leading Watts 48% to 36% despite J.C. Watts having higher favorable ratings than Mary Fallin (79% favorable for Watts versus 77% for Fallin). This discrepancy between the ballot and the candidates’ relative favorable ratings was unusual. A 46% vote conversion rate in the Tarrance survey for J.C. Watts may indicate that many Republican primary voters had not yet begun to consider him as a gubernatorial candidate. His personal popularity was not translated into votes among an electorate who had not thought of him as a candidate before the
survey. On the other hand, Mary Fallin’s 62% vote conversion rate is more indicative
of being the only well-known candidate in a primary, reinforcing the idea that voters had not yet considered J.C. Watts a candidate. As Republican primary voters have become acquainted with the idea of J.C. Watts running for Governor, his support has grown to 39% and Fallin’s has declined to 36%. This fifteen point swing is consistent with J.C. Watts’ edge in favorable ratings and shows that this is now a two-candidate race in the minds of most voters." One pro-Fallin analyst, given the district-by-district results of the WRS poll, said the two most important districts are the 4th and the 5th, where Fallin and Watts are about equal in name identification. He said that if the results in the 4th and 5th Districts are accurate, "JC needs to be given a reality check on his 'Republicans not happy with the candidates' quote because they may very well have been talking about him and not her." A Watts supporter and veteran GOP official said the Tulsa area results "should trouble Mary and her troops. That's a scary number in the state's second-largest media market."
Other previous polls have found Fallin with a substantial lead over Watts, who has not yet announced if he'll get into the race. Sources told The McCarville Report Online on Monday that he will announce this week.
The poll, conducted by Wilson Research Strategies of 500 likely GOP primary voters from May 7th to May 9th, "indicates a very tight race for the Republican nomination for Governor," the analysis reports. "Former Congressman and Corporation Commissioner J.C. Watts leads Congresswoman Mary Fallin 39% to 36% if the Republican primary election for Governor were held today. Randy Brogdon receives five percent (5%) support."
Fallin, the poll shows, leads Watts in three of the state's five congressional districts, including the one Watts previously represented in Congress.
The poll shows Watts leading Fallin in "Congressional District 1 (52% for Watts to 19% for Fallin), CD 2 (41% to 17%) and in the Tulsa Media Market overall (50% to 17%). Fallin does lead in CD 4 (43% versus 34%) and CD 5 (53% to 29%). In CD 3, Fallin narrowly leads Watts 42% to 37%."
The poll was not taken for any of the candidates, a WRS spokesman said.
The WRS findings conflict with a previous poll by Fallin's pollster, The Tarrance Group of Washington. That poll found Fallin leading Watts 45.3 percent 25.9 percent. Brogdon, of Owasso, got 5 percent. The poll found Fallin leading Watts by about 18 percent in the 4th District and by more than 20 percent in Oklahoma City's 5th District. The WRS poll analysis notes the previous poll by The Tarrance Group: "Early trends in a primary campaign like this one can also give us important information about the course of the race. In this case we can examine trend between our results and the results of a survey conducted by the Tarrance Group on behalf of the Fallin campaign which was released publicly on April 28. The Tarrance Group survey showed Fallin leading Watts 48% to 36% despite J.C. Watts having higher favorable ratings than Mary Fallin (79% favorable for Watts versus 77% for Fallin). This discrepancy between the ballot and the candidates’ relative favorable ratings was unusual. A 46% vote conversion rate in the Tarrance survey for J.C. Watts may indicate that many Republican primary voters had not yet begun to consider him as a gubernatorial candidate. His personal popularity was not translated into votes among an electorate who had not thought of him as a candidate before the
survey. On the other hand, Mary Fallin’s 62% vote conversion rate is more indicative
of being the only well-known candidate in a primary, reinforcing the idea that voters had not yet considered J.C. Watts a candidate. As Republican primary voters have become acquainted with the idea of J.C. Watts running for Governor, his support has grown to 39% and Fallin’s has declined to 36%. This fifteen point swing is consistent with J.C. Watts’ edge in favorable ratings and shows that this is now a two-candidate race in the minds of most voters." One pro-Fallin analyst, given the district-by-district results of the WRS poll, said the two most important districts are the 4th and the 5th, where Fallin and Watts are about equal in name identification. He said that if the results in the 4th and 5th Districts are accurate, "JC needs to be given a reality check on his 'Republicans not happy with the candidates' quote because they may very well have been talking about him and not her." A Watts supporter and veteran GOP official said the Tulsa area results "should trouble Mary and her troops. That's a scary number in the state's second-largest media market."
Other previous polls have found Fallin with a substantial lead over Watts, who has not yet announced if he'll get into the race. Sources told The McCarville Report Online on Monday that he will announce this week.
Labels: 2010 Governor's Race, Polls, The Tarrance Group, Wilson Research Strategies
posted by Mike McCarville @ 8:07 AM
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