THOMPSON ENDORSES LANKFORD

Mike Thompson today endorsed James Lankford in his 5th District runoff with Kevin Calvey, thus giving Lankford a boost that some had suspected was coming.

The state representative finished third in the GOP congressional primary.

Said Thompson: “On August 24th, voters in Central Oklahoma will have the opportunity to make a critical decision. I ran for Congress because the federal government is out of control. From failed bailouts, the disastrous healthcare takeover, crippling debt and their assault on our economy, Washington politicians have our country on a crash course. If we’re going to stand up for our freedoms, it’s critical we send leaders to Washington who will focus on reform.

"Oklahomans have an opportunity to send a genuine Conservative to Congress. James Lankford is the transformative leader we need. James comes from outside politics and brings a perspective desperately needed in Washington. He doesn’t claim to know how Washington works because, like me, he doesn’t believe it does. He’s honest, straightforward and unlike many politicians, his conservative values won’t change with the environment.

"While I have respect for all of the Republican candidates who ran for the 5th district, I respectfully ask you to join me in voting for James Lankford on August 24th.”

The development is certain to further shake Calvey, who had been perceived as the clear leader in the race until the votes were counted and political novice and former Falls Creek Youth Camp director Lankford eeked out a first-place finish, 33 to 32 percent, in the seven-man primary.

Thompson got about 18 percent, or 10,000, of the votes cast in the primary.

Political Realities: Is Brogdon A Sore Loser?

A blogger who supported Randy Brogdon in the Republican primary for governor this morning asks why Brogdon has not yet endorsed winner Mary Fallin.

www.ldjackson.net

Lankford Says Calvey Initiates 'Deceptive' Attack

James Lankford says that his 5th District Republican primary opponent, Kevin Calvey, has undertaken a "deceptive" attack on him in their runoff for the congressional seat.

Writing on Facebook, Lankford relates, "It has already begun... I have reports tonight that my opponent has already begun deceptive phone 'push' polling. Brace yourself for a phone call that will sound like politics as usual negative campaigning. Yet another example of why we must change the status quo."

The McCarville Report Online has asked the Calvey campaign about the calls Lankford describes.

This Fox Isn't Crazy...

Sarah Palin will be out with a new book this November. It's America by Heart: Reflections on Family, Faith and Flag.

The new book will give Palin a new reason to tour the country, meet voters and make money all at the same time.

HarperCollins, which also published Palin's million-selling Going Rogue, revealed the cover design Thursday.

Noted Quote: About Those Spy Cameras...

The 76 cameras in Arizona didn't produce the revenue stream politicians had anticipated. According to the state, less than a third of the 1.2 million tickets mailed out were ever paid, which meant the government received just $78 million in fine payments -- not the $120 million it projected. Add political pressure to the equation and the disincentives to keep the cameras grew. Dilip Sarangan, security analyst with Frost and Sullivan, agrees that red-light cameras aren't useful for generating revenue. "If you're just looking to get more money into a state, that's not the best idea: It's really too easy for people to contest the charges," he told FoxNews.com. ~ From an analysis on www.foxnews.com

Rasmussen: Fallin Leads Askins 57-36%

From Rasmussen Reports ~ Republican Congresswoman Mary Fallin holds a sizable lead over Democratic Lieutenant Governor Jari Askins in Rasmussen Reports' first post-primary look at the race for governor of Oklahoma. The winner will be the state's first woman governor.

Fallin, the winner of a four-way GOP Primary contest on Tuesday, now earns 57% of the vote to Askins 36%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. Askins won a razor-thin victory over state Attorney General Drew Edmondson in Tuesday's Democratic Primary.

Last month, Fallin posted a 55% to 32% lead over Askins. In February in the only other Rasmussen Reports survey of this year's Oklahoma governor's race, the GOP hopeful bested Askins 51% to 37%.

For Askins, the race is clearly an uphill battle in a conservative, Republican-leaning state where opposition to the national health care bill and to the federal challenge of Arizona's immigration law are well above findings nationally. Oklahoma voters also hold a pessimistic view of where the economy is headed. All these issues are creating a difficult environment for Democrats nationally.

Fallin holds a two-to-one lead among male voters and leads by 10 among women.

Eighty-six percent (86%) of Republicans support Fallin, while just 66% of Democrats have rallied to Askins thus far. But the Democrat holds a slight lead among voters not affiliated with either major party.

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Oklahoma was conducted on July 28, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. Rasmussen Reports will release new numbers on Oklahoma's U.S. Senate race on Saturday.

Just six percent (6%) of voters in the state rate the economy as good or excellent, but 56% view it as poor. Fifty-one percent (51%) feel the economy is getting worse, while 23% say it's getting better.

Askins wins strong support from those who say the economy is improving. Fallin earns even stronger support from those who believe it is worsening.

An overwhelming 75% of all Oklahoma voters think the country is in a recession.

Only 21% think the $787-billion stimulus plan proposed by President Obama and passed by Congress has helped the economy. Forty-five percent (45%) think it has hurt. This, too, is a more negative view of the stimulus than voters have nationwide.

Voters are slightly more optimistic about their personal finances, with one-in-three (35%) who rate their personal finances as good or excellent, and just 18% who rate them as poor. But only 20% think their personal finances are getting better, while 44% say they are getting worse.

Two-out-of-three Oklahoma voters (67%) favor repeal of the health care plan, compared to 56% nationally. Twenty-eight percent (28%) oppose repeal. This includes 58% who Strongly Favor repeal and 21% who are Strongly Opposed.

Seventy-three percent (73%) of Oklahoma voters favor passage of an immigration law like Arizona's in their state, and 67% disagree with the U.S. Justice Department’s decision to challenge the law in court. Both findings indicate much higher support for the Arizona law in the state than voters express nationally.

Supporters of the Arizona law strongly back Fallin; opponents strongly favor Askins.

Fallin is viewed Very Favorably by 24% of Oklahoma voters and Very Unfavorably by eight percent (8%).

For Askins, Very Favorables are also 24%, and Very Unfavorables are 12%.

At this stage of the campaign, Rasmussen Reports still considers the very favorable and very unfavorable figures more significant than the overall favorability totals.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters approve of the job Brad Henry is doing as governor, while 38% disapprove. This is largely unchanged from the previous survey. The Democratic governor is term-limited and cannot seek reelection.

Henry Endorses Askins, As Did Edmondson; But Where Is Randy Brogdon's Support For Mary Fallin?

Governor Henry today endorsed Jari Askins for governor, no surprise, and Askins thus begins the general election campaign with the support of the popular governor and of the man she beat, Attorney General Drew Edmondson.

Edmondson's support was immediate and intense on election night. He said he will work for Askins and help ensure that Oklahoma's next governor is a Democrat.

See also
http://oklahoma.watchdog.org/1037/will-brogdon-endorse-fallin/

www.ldjackson.net

Republican primary winner Mary Fallin, on the other hand, is still waiting on an endorsement from the man she defeated, Senator Randy Brogdon. Brogdon told reporters on election night he was going to take some time off before deciding whether to endorse Fallin.

On election night, Fallin said she hoped to win the support of Brogdon and his followers.

"Brogdon has said he first wants to take a few days off before making a decision," The Oklahoman reported.

"Senator Brogdon and I have the same common, core values," Fallin said. "We're both conservatives. I think in the end that his supporters will come with us. We're going to continue to fight for our state's rights, and I do believe in our Constitution."

Pinnell: Liberal Democrats Should Apologize

Republican State Chairman Matt Pinnell says Democrats Tom Adelson and Judy Eason McIntyre should apologize for comments criticizing the Legislature as having passed "meaningless pieces of paper."

The two liberal senators made the remark in delivering Obamacare materials to U. S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. They mocked the Legislature, with Republicans in the majority, for spending time on the issue.

“Oklahoma voters overwhelming oppose this federal mandated legislation,” said Pinnell, “and for Oklahoma Democrat legislators to call our efforts here to stop it ‘meaningless’ is disgraceful, and they should apologize for the comment.”

Senate President Pro Tempore Glenn Coffee and House Speaker Chris Benge stated months ago that Obamacare would impose half a trillion dollars in new taxes on American families. It would cost Oklahoma one billion dollars over the next 10 years in new spending. Coffee and Benge simply said, “The people of our state don’t want it. The taxpayers can’t afford it.”

Senator Tom Coburn, M.D. has said in previous statements: “The bottom line is the typical Oklahoman can expect to pay more for lower quality health care with fewer choices.”

“Our GOP candidates have lead the way in opposing Barack Obama's big government agenda and saying no to Obamacare . I'm proud to say Oklahoma voters will have an opportunity to vote for these candidates this November” concluded Pinnell.

Fallin Seeks Help Matching Askins' Checkbook

Mary Fallin today asked potential donors to her campaign for governor to help her match opponent Jari Askins' checkbook.

Fallin, in an email fundraising appeal, wrote, "Oklahoma needs a conservative leader who will bring new jobs and grow our economy, who will cut wasteful spending and protect your tax dollars, who will lower taxes and who will stand up to President Obama’s big-government agenda.

"There's too much at stake for our state leaders to sit on the sidelines while Washington continues to pursue policies that threaten our future.

"I'll stand up for Oklahoma's working men and women and that's why I am the right person for the job of governor. I'll fight to repeal ObamaCare, I'll stand alongside Arizona to protect our borders and I'll push back when Washington reaches too far into our pocket books and our lives.

"But to win in November, I need your financial help today.

"We've had more than 6,600 individual donations from all 77 counties, and your support has meant the world to me! However, we are now facing a candidate who can and will write a personal check to fund a campaign. Our opponent spent nearly $900,000 on her race in 2006 and this year she’s already loaned her gubernatorial campaign $675,000.

"That’s why I need your help today!

"Please give $25, $50, $100, or any amount you can to help us match our opponent, return conservative leadership to the Oklahoma’s governor’s office and win in November.

"And, remember, liberal special-interest groups in Washington don’t want to see me as governor because they know I’ll stand up to their big government, Obama-style philosophy! So please help our campaign and give any amount you can as soon as possible.

"Thank you so much for your help. Your generous donation to my campaign will ensure Oklahoma elects a conservative as its governor and continues to move forward to a better and brighter future."

About To Become A Popular Poster?

This artwork, posted on the Democratic forum www.demookie.com, is likely to become a popular poster as Jari Askins' battle with Mary Fallin develops.

The "artist" is a regular DemoOkie poster named Mitch.

Politico: Lankford's 'Unfathomable primary win'

By Alex Isenstadt/Politico ~ James Lankford's win in the Oklahoma 5th District primary over Kevin Calvey has some in Washington asking, 'Who?'

A slate of prominent conservative groups—including the Club for Growth, Concerned Women for America, the American Conservative Union, and the Gun Owners of America—endorsed and provided financial backing for Calvey in his bid for the Oklahoma City-area open seat, only to wake up Wednesday to find that the former state legislator finished behind Lankford, a little-known political newcomer waging his first campaign for office.

“I think the question is, ‘Who is James Lankford?’” remarked one Washington-based GOP operative who is supporting Calvey. “I didn’t know Lankford’s name until four weeks ago.”

Lankford, who ran the Christian Falls Creek summer camp and carried the backing of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Rep. J.C. Watts (R-Okla.), heads toward an Aug. 24 runoff with Calvey after finishing first with 34 percent in the five-way (sic) primary. Calvey, who served in the state House from 1998 to 2006, followed in second with 33 percent.

GOP strategists reviewing the primary results suggested a host of explanations for Lankford’s success. Though he spent a relatively modest $284,000 – about half of what the better-funded Calvey invested – he ran an aggressive, grassroots-oriented effort that mobilized the local Christian community.

Some argued Lankford benefitted from his lack of political experience, which enabled him to brand himself as an outsider in a year of intense anti-Washington resentment.

In the final days leading up to the race, Lankford ran a TV ad in which he proclaimed, “All of us that are outside of politics understand: We will never change the status quo in Washington if we send the status quo to Washington.”

That message distinguished Lankford from Calvey and from third-place finisher state Rep. Mike Thompson, both of whom fashioned themselves as conservatives who would oppose the Democratic agenda in Washington.

“Given the guy’s background, it’s quite possible that he brought in a lot of people who aren’t used to voting in primaries,” speculated the operative.

Still, Calvey’s second-place showing has left some Republicans wondering where his campaign went wrong.

“What the heck happened? He had all the advantages,” asked the first operative. “It’s unfathomable.”

Trebor Worthen, a Calvey campaign consultant, insisted that the campaign had never expected a blowout and that a runoff was fully expected.

“It wasn’t a surprise. We expected a tough race all along,” he said. “In short, we never expected it to be easy at all.”

In an interview Wednesday afternoon, Lankford said he wasn’t surprised that he remained a mystery inside the Beltway.

“Washington doesn’t know me, and I don’t know Washington,” he said. “I come from a non-political background.”

Read more at http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0710/40373.html#ixzz0v3zdBssU.

The Experts Ponder Their Polls: GOTV, Big Mo

In the wake of Tuesday's election in which Jari Askins upset Drew Edmondson in a close finish that all the polls failed to detect, those involved in taking the polls are examining what may have happened. (See story below.)

Analysis

The most likely answer, some agree, is an aggressive "get out the vote" effort that can't be measured in a pre-balloting poll and can skew even the most accurate poll result.

Keith Gaddie of SoonerPoll says of what may have happened, "To that end, let's talk theories: (1) The poll aged. A likely culprit that you bring up, and correctly so. (2) The fact that all the polls tracked together, the wrong way, means that they either all shared an aging flaw, a sampling flaw, or that some other factor rendered them inaccurate. (3) The third question is whether or not the sampling flaw was a function of a bad sample (and therefore afflicting all three polls I know of); a screening flaw (leading to an unrepresentative sample across all polls); or, was it a product of campaign activity that broke the assumptions of the likely voter models used by all the pollsters in play in Oklahoma.

"This last theory is probably the most powerful. As we increase propensity to vote in our screen, Edmondson gets stronger. So, the Askins vote (actual) has to either be a function of conversion by Askins; demobilization of Edmondson voters (given the turnout, possible); and aggressive GOTV by Askins, thereby breaking the sample frame like happened in the NY gubernatorial election in 1994.

"I like this last theory, and am moving to test all three. Part of what I need are the sign-in data, so this will take a several days (maybe a couple of weeks) to get done."

Bill Shapard, also of SoonerPoll, said three factors are important: The voter turnout, the women's vote and the Barry Switzer endorsement of Askins.

Pat McFerron of the Sooner Survey cites several factors that could have resulted in poll results that weren't reflected in the actual voting. He notes, rightly, that voter turnout among Democrats in Tulsa (a perceived Edmondson area of strength) was below that of other regions, especially including Askins' perceived area of strength, southwestern Oklahoma.

McFerron said, "1) It was a snapshot in time. 2) Looks like SW really over-performed (turnout wise) and Tulsa was below. 3) Momentum matters, and Jari had it during the last week."

How Did The Polls Get It So Wrong?

With Jari Askins taking the Democratic nomination for governor from Drew Edmondson in an upset, many are asking today how the polls got that race so wrong.

Just days before the votes were counted, SoonerPoll had Edmondson up by a bunch, 49 to 33 percent. Sixteen points is a substantial lead, even with 18 percent undecided.

The poll came much closer on the GOP side, at least with Mary Fallin's percentage; it was considerably off on Randy Brogdon's percentage, although 22 percent were undecided.

An earlier SoonerPoll was much closer to the actual finish in the Askins-Edmondson race, although it still had Edmondson ahead.

The Sooner Survey's final pre-election measurement had Edmondson's lead over Askins at 38-27 percent, with a huge undecided of 35 percent.

It's a reminder that polls are merely snapshots in time and may or may not reflect actual voter sentiment at the time they are taken, and often are less than accurate after they are taken; that's particularly true in today's volatile political environment.

It's also a reminder that in races with large numbers of "undecided" voters, the results are assumed to be correct at the reader's peril.

Happy Consultants Count Their Winners

Among the happy political consultants today are the partners in AH Strategies in Oklahoma City. They are out with a recap of the victories of their candidates in Tuesday's primaries; all of them won or made it into runoffs.

Karl Ahlgren, Fount Holland, Trebor Worthen and Chad Alexander point to the wins of Ken Miller, who won the Republican primary for state treasurer with over 60% of the vote; Todd Lamb, who became the Republican nominee for lieutenant governor; Kevin Calvey, running in a seven-way primary race in the 5th Congressional District, who made the runoff; and Senate candidates Eddie Fields, Frank Simpson, Rick Brinkley, David Holt, Cliff Aldridge, and Mark Allen. They all won their races with more than 60% of the vote. Rob Johnson won his three-way primary outright.

In the Oklahoma House, they said, clients Glen Mulready, Ryan Smith, Dennis Casey, Jadine Nollan, and Tom Newell also won their primaries in landslide victories, exceeding 60% of the vote in each of their races.

Two Out Of Three Ain't Bad...

Those who voted in The McCarville Report Online's poll just before Tuesday's election were pretty much on target in determining the day's biggest surprises.

Topping the poll: ~ Lankford leads GOP field 47% (which he did)
~ Leonard tops Pruitt 15% (Leonard lost to Pruitt)
~ Askins upsets Edmondson 12% (which she did)

Edmondson: The Last Hurrah

Attorney General Drew Edmondson said that with his loss in the governor's race to Jari Askins, he is retiring from politics.

Photo courtesy The Oklahoman

GOP Sets Record Gubernatorial Primary Turnout

Election Board Secretary Paul Ziriax shares this information this morning:

Here are some quick facts about the voter turnout for the 2010 Gubernatorial Primary Election, based on the preliminary, unofficial returns:

Total turnout for the gubernatorial primaries (Democrats + Republicans) was 512,680. That compares to 446,603 in 2006; 556,265 in 2002; and 648,170 in 1994.

Republicans set a record for turnout in a gubernatorial primary: 249,031. That compares to 182,136 who voted in 2006; 205,876 in 2002; and 205,947 in 1994. (There was not a Republican gubernatorial primary in 1998.) 249,031 is about 30.3% of the 822,290 registered Republicans.

Turnout in the Democratic gubernatorial primary was 263,649. That compares to 264,467 who voted in 2006; 350,389 in 2002; 284,062 in 1998; and 442,223 in 1994. 263,649 is about 26.4% of the 998,964 registered Democrats.

The State Election Board meets at 5:00 PM on Tuesday, August 3, 2010 to certify the Primary Election returns.

The deadline to file a petition requesting a recount or contest is Friday, July 30, 2010 at 5:00 PM.

Chris Wilson: Boren Beat Liberal Democrats

Pollster and consultant Chris Wilson said today that Democratic Congressman Dan Boren, essentially, is bullet-proof.

Wilson, speaking with Reid Mullins on KTOK's morning show, said liberal Democrats "threw everything they had" at Boren in an attempt to defeat him with liberal State Senator Jim Wilson and Boren defeated Wilson in impressive fashion.

Boren took 75.56 percent of the 2nd District vote to just 24.44 percent for Wilson, of Tahlequah. Boren will face the winner of a Republican runoff, but neither candidate is considered a serious contender at this time.

Boren has been the target of months-long ridicule on the primary forum used by activist Democrats in the state, www.demookie.com.

Historic Race For Governor Is Underway In State's First 'Womano-a-womano' Battle For No. 1

With victories in Tuesday's balloting, Democratic Lt. Governor Jari Askins and Republican Congresswoman Mary Fallin begin their historic battle to become the first woman to claim the governor's office.

Also see Political Realities

Their race already is a first; they are the first women to face each other in a race for the state's top office.

Askins earned her spot with an upset of favored Attorney General Drew Edmondson. Askins won by less than one vote per precinct statewide in a result that reminded some of her underdog victory over Republican Todd Hiett four years ago to win the lieutenant governor's chair.

Askins' win continues Barry Switzer's role as king-maker; he endorsed underdog Brad Henry in 2002 and Henry pulled the upset over Republican Steve Largent.

Switzer taped a late statewide radio ad for Askins, saying she was “a great friend, a great sports fan and she’ll be a great governor,” and also held a rally last week for her in Oklahoma City.

Askins, who was a district judge and the state House Majority Leader before being elected to succeed Fallin as lieutenant governor in 2006, also worked to corral women’s support, running ads promising to equalize gender pay disparity; her equal pay ad was cited by The McCarville Report Online earlier as an important boost for her campaign.

Fallin earned her spot with a tough win over tenacious Senator Randy Brogdon and two other candidates. Fallin has now won eight out of eight elections in which her name has been on the ballot.