Adelson, Bartlett Lead Tulsa Mayoral Race

Republican Dewey Bartlett Jr. and Democrat Tom Adelson held wide leads in their respective mayoral primaries heading into the final week of the campaign, according to an Oklahoma Poll conducted August 29 to September 1st for the Tulsa World by SoonerPoll.com.

Three hundred likely voters from each party were surveyed, with 53 percent of Republicans choosing Bartlett from among the 11 GOP candidates and 54 percent of Democrats picking Adelson in a five-candidate field.

Republican Chris Medlock, with 15 percent of the GOP vote, was the only other candidate in either party to reach double digits.

None of Adelson's opponents in the Democratic primary received more than 2 percent.

Twenty-one percent of Republicans and 39 percent of Democrats said they didn't know who they would vote for.

"The numbers are problematic for (Bartlett and Medlock) both," said Bill Shapard of SoonerPoll.com, which conducted the survey. "Obviously, Medlock would like better numbers. But it could also be bad for Dewey Bartlett. His supporters could say, 'Oh, he's got it won,' and stay home." Bartlett leads Medlock in every demographic category, including self-identified conservatives.

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Poll: Henry's Job Approval Hangs High

From www.tulsaworld.com ~ Gov. Brad Henry remains popular with Oklahomans despite his support of President Barack Obama and his positions on issues such as voter identification and official English.

In a survey of 318 likely voters by Oklahoma City-based SoonerPoll.com, two-thirds said they approve of Henry's job performance. That puts the second-term Democrat slightly ahead of the state's two U.S. senators, Republicans Jim Inhofe (62 percent) and Tom Coburn (60 percent).

The poll found that 66.3 percent of respondents say they approve of the job Henry is doing. Another 28.9 percent say they disapprove and 4.7 percent say they were neutral.

In the same poll, 83 percent said they favor requiring photo identification to vote and 86 percent said they favor making English the official language.

Last month Henry vetoed a photo ID bill, and the Republican-led Legislature is trying to circumvent Henry by taking an official English referendum directly to the voters.

The poll was conducted April 23-26 and has a margin of error of 5.5 percentage points.

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Poll: Fallin With Huge Lead Over Brogdon, Watts; Askins Leads Edmondson By Slight Margin

The SoonerPoll reports that Congresswoman Mary Fallin has a huge lead over possible gubernatorial primary opponent J. C. Watts and announced opponent Senator Randy Brogdon.

The late April poll shows Fallin preferred among registered Republicans with 45.3 percent of the vote to 25.9 percent for Watts, who has not announced his candidacy. Brogdon, of Owasso, got 5 percent.

In a two-way race for the Democratic nomination Lt. Governor Jari Askins had 33.9 percent and Attorney General Drew Edmondson had 28.6 percent.

The sampling was of 168 registered Democrats, 139 registered Republicans and 11 independents. It was conducted April 23-26 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.5 percentage points.

Of the Republicans surveyed, 23.7 percent indicated they did not have a preference or declined to answer.

"I think J.C. not having been on the ballot since 2002 is having an impact on his numbers. Memories are short in politics," said Bill Shapard of The SoonerPoll, which he heads with political science professor, author and pollster Keith Gaddie.

"I think if J.C. is going to run and be a viable candidate, he's almost going to have to reintroduce himself to the electorate. We've had a few more football stars since he last ran," Shapard told The Associated Press.

Shapard said the poll shows Askins and Edmondson "are well known among the Democratic electorate, which is evidently divided between the two. I think that is going to be a dogfight primary if Edmondson finally commits to the race."

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Poll: Oklahomans Not Impressed By Obama

The Tulsa World reports that Oklahomans remain unenamored with their new president based on a just-released poll.

Fewer than half those surveyed by SoonerPoll.com on April 23-26 said they approve of the way Obama is doing his job, and most were skeptical about his administration's plans to turn around the economy and reform government.

The survey of 318 likely voters has a 5.5 percentage point margin of error.

Only 47 percent said they approved of Obama's job performance, while 48 percent disapproved.

Thirty-six percent said they strongly disapproved.

The Oklahoma results contrast sharply with national polling, which shows about two-thirds of Americans approve of Obama's job performance.

"Oklahomans are very polarized," said SoonerPoll.com President Bill Shapard. "Two-thirds of Democrats said they approve of Obama. That's in line with national figures. Among Republicans, only 25 percent approve of him."

Read more at http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/article.aspx?subjectid=12&articleid=20090429_16_A1_OLHMIY212294.

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Poll: Fallin Leads Gubernatorial Pack

By Randy Krehbiel/Tulsa World Staff Writer ~ U.S. Rep. Mary Fallin appears to have a head start on four other possible candidates for the 2010 governor's race, a recent poll indicates.

Fallin, a Republican from the Fifth District, was the only one of the five with a favorable rating of more than 50 percent. She also had the highest name recognition.

"Even 20 percent of Democrats said they have a strong favorable impression of Mary Fallin, which is pretty high," said Bill Shapard, president of SoonerPoll.com in Oklahoma City.

The survey of 339 likely voters across the state was conducted Feb. 27-March 4. It has a 5.32 percentage point margin of error. The poll was not commissioned by the Tulsa World, although SoonerPoll has conducted other polls for the World.

The sample was 49 percent registered Democrats, 45 percent registered Republicans and 6 percent registered independents, reflecting the state's overall voter registration. All of those surveyed have voted regularly.

Respondents were asked their impressions of five potential gubernatorial candidates: Fallin; U.S. Rep. Tom Cole, a Republican from the Fourth District; state Sen. Randy Brogdon, R-Owasso; and Oklahoma Attorney General Drew Edmondson and Lt. Gov. Jari Askins, both Democrats.

The poll was released at about the same time Brogdon said he's officially a candidate. He had indicated earlier he would join Fallin in seeking the GOP nomination.

Fallin was viewed strongly or somewhat favorably by 57 percent, including 75 percent of Republicans. More than 40 percent of Democrats were strongly or somewhat favorable toward Fallin, a two-term member of Congress who previously spent 12 years as the lieutenant governor.

Among Democrats, Edmondson had a combined favorable rating of 45 percent and Askins 32 percent.

Although the 2010 primaries are more than a year away, there is some indication that voter opinions are already taking shape, Shapard said. He noted that only 15 percent of the Republicans surveyed and 29 percent of Democrats said they are undecided about the race.

"A lot of people are already looking toward it," he said. There was some indication that voters don't know much about individual candidates. Even Edmondson, the state's attorney general since 1995, was unknown to more than a third of the respondents. Askins, the lieutenant governor since 2007, was unknown to nearly half. Cole was unknown to just more than half the respondents, with a favorable rating of 36 percent. Only one-fourth of those surveyed said they had no opinion of Fallin.

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Fallin, Edmondson At Front Of Governor Pack

Democrat Drew Edmondson and Republican Mary Fallin lead the possible primary elections for governor next year, a new survey out today shows.

The SoonerPoll, conducted by Keith Gaddie and Bill Shapard, shows Edmondson leading Lt. Governor Jari Askins 41.9-28.7 percent, and Fallin leading Congressman Tom Cole 53 to 31.1 percent; Senator Randy Brogdon drew 1.3 percent.

Said Gaddie: "We direct your attention to several interesting elements of the survey, including the strong name familiarity and positives of Rep. Fallin, her strength in the trial heat across geography and especially among core conservatives and high-propensity voters, and her strong support across men, women, married and single voters.

"In the Democratic primary, note the strength of AG Edmondson but also the notable degree to which many high-propensity voters are not familiar with any of the aspirants. My initial reaction is that Randy Brogdon is definitely smoking something if he thinks he has any shot at all to become governor.

"Second, it is evident that Cole's ID is weak even among Republicans, and his favorables (36.3 to 12.7 unfavorable) are weaker among those core GOP voters who are the most likely to vote. If you run this primary, Cole has to pull down Mary's favorables (never been done before) (56.7 to 18.9 percent unfavorable) and also pump up his ID and his own favorables outside the district.

"Askins can overhaul Edmondson, but its the same kind of problem -- displace the longest-serving DEM who has strong favorables in the party (44.6-20.6 versus 32.3-20.7 for Askins).

"The biggest shock for Rep. Brogdon will be that NO ONE KNOWS OF HIM (3.8 percent favorable, 3.6 perent unfavorable).

"The biggest shock for Cole, even with his polling experience, will be his lack of name ID. These numbers are not as good as Istook's in 2005. Fallin-- strong with core conservatives. Can run hard against Cole on his get-along approach, failure in 2008 US House races, ouster as RNCC chair," Gaddie concluded.

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State Media Polling Firms Tops In Nation

An analysis of political polling firms whose primary clients are the public or the news media shows that two of them who poll for Oklahoma media outlets are among the highest ranked in the nation.

The analysis, actually a listing of all polling firms based on a sliding scale of the accuracy of their polling data percentages (not whether they predicted winners), is compiled by SurveyUSA, a national firm that polls for KFOR-TV, Channel 4, in Oklahoma City.

In the listing, SurveyUSA itself is listed 5th. The firm has been remarkably accurate in previous surveys for KFOR. It was the first polling firm to report the likelihood that Democrat Brad Henry would upset Republican Steve Largent in the 2002 governor's race.

The only Oklahoma firm listed is SoonerPoll, which conducts polls for the Tulsa World and KOTV, Channel 6. It is listed 33rd, right behind the Gallup Poll, with which it is numerically tied in the ranking. Pollster Bill Shapard also partners with Keith Gaddie in the firm TvPoll, with KWTV, Channel 9, as a client.

Gallup is listed 32nd in the analysis, which includes about 50 firms. Fox News is listed 8th, Zogby 10th, Rasmussen 20th, Mason-Dixon 24th.

The listings do not include survey research firms that routinely poll for clients and whose poll results are not disclosed. That would include the firms of Cole Hargrave Snodgrass And Associates (which does publish some results in its Sooner Survey) and Wilson Research Strategies, Washington-based firm with an Oklahoma City office and with political and corporate clients here and across the country.

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