Adelson, Bartlett Lead Tulsa Mayoral Race

Republican Dewey Bartlett Jr. and Democrat Tom Adelson held wide leads in their respective mayoral primaries heading into the final week of the campaign, according to an Oklahoma Poll conducted August 29 to September 1st for the Tulsa World by SoonerPoll.com.

Three hundred likely voters from each party were surveyed, with 53 percent of Republicans choosing Bartlett from among the 11 GOP candidates and 54 percent of Democrats picking Adelson in a five-candidate field.

Republican Chris Medlock, with 15 percent of the GOP vote, was the only other candidate in either party to reach double digits.

None of Adelson's opponents in the Democratic primary received more than 2 percent.

Twenty-one percent of Republicans and 39 percent of Democrats said they didn't know who they would vote for.

"The numbers are problematic for (Bartlett and Medlock) both," said Bill Shapard of SoonerPoll.com, which conducted the survey. "Obviously, Medlock would like better numbers. But it could also be bad for Dewey Bartlett. His supporters could say, 'Oh, he's got it won,' and stay home." Bartlett leads Medlock in every demographic category, including self-identified conservatives.

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Poll: Fallin With Huge Lead Over Brogdon, Watts; Askins Leads Edmondson By Slight Margin

The SoonerPoll reports that Congresswoman Mary Fallin has a huge lead over possible gubernatorial primary opponent J. C. Watts and announced opponent Senator Randy Brogdon.

The late April poll shows Fallin preferred among registered Republicans with 45.3 percent of the vote to 25.9 percent for Watts, who has not announced his candidacy. Brogdon, of Owasso, got 5 percent.

In a two-way race for the Democratic nomination Lt. Governor Jari Askins had 33.9 percent and Attorney General Drew Edmondson had 28.6 percent.

The sampling was of 168 registered Democrats, 139 registered Republicans and 11 independents. It was conducted April 23-26 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.5 percentage points.

Of the Republicans surveyed, 23.7 percent indicated they did not have a preference or declined to answer.

"I think J.C. not having been on the ballot since 2002 is having an impact on his numbers. Memories are short in politics," said Bill Shapard of The SoonerPoll, which he heads with political science professor, author and pollster Keith Gaddie.

"I think if J.C. is going to run and be a viable candidate, he's almost going to have to reintroduce himself to the electorate. We've had a few more football stars since he last ran," Shapard told The Associated Press.

Shapard said the poll shows Askins and Edmondson "are well known among the Democratic electorate, which is evidently divided between the two. I think that is going to be a dogfight primary if Edmondson finally commits to the race."

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Fallin, Edmondson At Front Of Governor Pack

Democrat Drew Edmondson and Republican Mary Fallin lead the possible primary elections for governor next year, a new survey out today shows.

The SoonerPoll, conducted by Keith Gaddie and Bill Shapard, shows Edmondson leading Lt. Governor Jari Askins 41.9-28.7 percent, and Fallin leading Congressman Tom Cole 53 to 31.1 percent; Senator Randy Brogdon drew 1.3 percent.

Said Gaddie: "We direct your attention to several interesting elements of the survey, including the strong name familiarity and positives of Rep. Fallin, her strength in the trial heat across geography and especially among core conservatives and high-propensity voters, and her strong support across men, women, married and single voters.

"In the Democratic primary, note the strength of AG Edmondson but also the notable degree to which many high-propensity voters are not familiar with any of the aspirants. My initial reaction is that Randy Brogdon is definitely smoking something if he thinks he has any shot at all to become governor.

"Second, it is evident that Cole's ID is weak even among Republicans, and his favorables (36.3 to 12.7 unfavorable) are weaker among those core GOP voters who are the most likely to vote. If you run this primary, Cole has to pull down Mary's favorables (never been done before) (56.7 to 18.9 percent unfavorable) and also pump up his ID and his own favorables outside the district.

"Askins can overhaul Edmondson, but its the same kind of problem -- displace the longest-serving DEM who has strong favorables in the party (44.6-20.6 versus 32.3-20.7 for Askins).

"The biggest shock for Rep. Brogdon will be that NO ONE KNOWS OF HIM (3.8 percent favorable, 3.6 perent unfavorable).

"The biggest shock for Cole, even with his polling experience, will be his lack of name ID. These numbers are not as good as Istook's in 2005. Fallin-- strong with core conservatives. Can run hard against Cole on his get-along approach, failure in 2008 US House races, ouster as RNCC chair," Gaddie concluded.

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