Democrats Seek Fallin Link To Askins Attack Commercials; Claim DC Pollster Ed Goeas Involved

A trio of Democrat attorneys is seeking evidence that Washington pollster and consultant Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group has violated the law by orchestrating commercial attacks on his client's opponents, The McCarville Report Online has been told.

Goeas told TMRO he had nothing to do with the commercials.

Alex Weintz, communications director for Republican Mary Fallin's campaign, told KTOK's Reid Mullins this morning, "I know that's not true (that Goeas was involved)...our campaign had nothing to do with these ads...we focus on our positive message.... we would have said, 'here's Mary's positive message.'" (Hear the entire interview: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzkBWg_BoJI)

The trio apparently has been working for about 10 days as they try to connect Goeas to the attacks, which surfaced in Oklahoma with commercial attacks on Jari Askins paid for by a third-party group, the Republican Governors Association.

Goeas, an Oklahoma native, is the primary consultant to Fallin's campaign. Goeas also is the primary consultant to the RGA's chairman, Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour, and counts the RGA itself as a client. Less than a month ago, Barbour was the featured draw at a Fallin fundraiser in Tulsa.

Said Goeas: "The RGA's Independent Expenditure team in Oklahoma -- which placed an ad highlighting Jari Askins on her liberal record on illegal immigration -- has their own set of vendors and consultants. I am not one of them, and I am prohibited by law from coordinating with them, approving their ads, or even offering them my advice. Quite frankly, if I were allowed to do any of that, I would have told them the best way to help Mary Fallin's campaign is to focus on her record of conservative leadership. Mary has stood up against the Obama Administration's failed policies -- on health care, immigration, and taxes, just to name a few areas -- and she'll continue to do so as governor while offering her positive vision for job creation and fiscal discipline. That's what her campaign message has focused on, and that's what I'd tell anyone looking to help Mary to focus their campaign commercials on."

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The attacks on Askins began about two weeks ago with a commercial claiming that her record shows she is a liberal. The controversy has continued, and the RGA last Friday aired a second commercial critical of Askins. On Saturday, the RGA took the attack on Askins to the national level with an ad on the Drudge Report seeking to tie her to President Obama and congressional liberals.

The first Drudge ad showed it was paid for by the "RGA Georgia 2010 PAC." The current ad shows it to be paid for by the Republican Governors Association.

The Fallin campaign, asked about the commercial, quickly disclaimed any involvement, citing the law. Weintz told TMRO, "Mary and her campaign did not have anything to do with the content of the ad nor were we asked to approve it nor can we legally do either."

It apparently will be the contention of the Democrats that Goeas, in his role as Fallin's primary consultant and with the clout he carries as Barbour's consultant and a consultant to the RGA, orchestrated the attacks on Askins as a surrogate for the Fallin campaign.

It apparently will be their contention that other clients of Goeas have benefited from similar attacks on opponents in other states.

And they reportedly plan to make the point that the lack of a connection between a candidate and third party groups allows one side of a campaign to attack the other side while avoiding criticism for going negative; it is their claim that a connection exists in this case and thus, the Fallin campaign is doing indirectly what it can't, under the law, do directly.

It could not immediately be determined what the group plans to do with its allegations other than make them public; candidates and third party groups have wide latitude legally in what can be said about candidates.

A Democrat source with details said just going public with the charge against Goeas may be as far as the Democrats will take it.

Some political insiders have been baffled by the attacks on Askins. They question why a front-runner like Fallin (polls have shown Fallin with a double-digit lead) would have anything to do with attacks on her opponent when the perception is that she's comfortably ahead in the race. They also note that the first attack commercial on Askins came before Fallin's own positive commercials began to air; that's simply bad tactics, one said. Another said the RGA runs the risk of its anti-Askins campaign backfiring on Fallin: "Not many like the idea of outsiders sticking their noses into our business," he said.

See related story below 

A GOP insider said the commercials likely are driving Askins' "negatives" higher than they have been. He notes that Fallin's favorable-unfavorable percentage has been about 4-to-1, while Askins' has hovered in the 2-to-1 or slightly more range and he expects that will drop as a result of the anti-Askins commercials. However, there have been no post-primary polls in the race that have been made public; any data contained in the earlier polls is far out-dated.

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Fallin's Pollster Claims Clear Leader Mantle

Mary Fallin is the clear leader in the 2010 race for governor of Oklahoma, her pollster and chief strategist claims.

Ed Goeas, president and CEO of The Tarrance Group in Alexandria, VA, told those listening in on a Fallin conference call that his firm's survey was taken in June of 600 likely voters.

He said it showed three out of four were unfamiliar with Fallin’s Republican challenger, Senator Randy Brogdon of Owasso.

Goeas said Fallin leads Democatic Attorney General Drew Edmonson, 53 percent to 37 percent, and Democratic Lt. Governor Jari Askins, 54 percent to 35 percent, in head-to-head matchups.

"At this point in the campaign she has somewhat higher name ID than either of the two of them,” Goeas said.

The survey showed 75 percent had never heard of Brogdon.

Goeas said the survey showed 62 percent had a favorable opinion of Fallin while 20 percent had an unfavorable view. Brogdon had 6 percent favorable, 6 percent unfavorable.

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Lamb To Announce Lt. Governor Bid Today

Edmond Senator Todd Lamb will announce today he seeks the Republican nomination for lieutenant governor next year. He joins GOP Rep. Colby Schwartz of Yukon and Rep. John Wright of Broken Arrow in the race.

The only announced Democrat is Senator Kenneth Corn of Poteau.

Lamb, an attorney, is the Senate Majority Floor leader.

Lt. Governor Jari Askins is seeking the Democratic nomination for governor.

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Wade Aims For Hat Trick, Endorses Askins

Elk City Daily News Publisher Larry Wade is trying for a hat trick: The veteran newspaperman was the first to endorse David Boren and Brad Henry in their campaigns for governor and now, he's out with an endorsement of Jari Askins.

Wade wrote, "Having looked at the field, we believe she is clearly the person in the position to serve the people of Oklahoma as a strong governor for the next term…"

Noting that Askins "has the broadest range of experience of any of the candidates of either party," the newspaper said, "Her mind is keen. Her integrity is spotless. Her heart is good. She is the kind of leader who brings people together to deal with problems and who has proved that she works to build consensus."

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Askins Reports Having Raised $235,000

Democrat Jari Askins reports she's raised $234,444 in her bid for her party's nomination for governor.

The lieutenant governor and former House member raised $144,181 in the 2nd Quarter and spent $88,244, much of it going to consultants. She reported $145,251 in cash on hand.

View her complete Ethics Commission finance report at https://www.ok.gov/ethics/crs/c1r/view_c1r.php?reg_id=110049&action=public&report_num=57581.

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Edmondson Makes Governor's Race Official

Attorney General Drew Edmondson confirmed today that he will seek the Democratic nomination for governor, a seat once held by his uncle, the late J. Howard Edmondson.

Edmondson, the son of the late Congressman Ed Edmondson, joins Lt. Governor Jari Askins in the race, which is expected to see a record sum spent in a Democratic primary for the office.

Edmondson said his advisers believe the race will cost between $5 million and $6 million: "It is going to be a very expensive race," he said.

Republicans Mary Fallin, 5th District congresswoman, and Randy Brogdon, state senator from Owasso, have announced as candidates for their party's nomination.

Edmondson said the biggest issue facing the next governor will be the state's economy and budget, which this year experienced a $900 million shortfall due to declining energy prices and the faltering economy.

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Edmondson To Announce He's Running

Attorney General Drew Edmondson will announce he's a candidate for the Democratic nomination for governor tomorrow, sources say.

Edmondson's entry into the race sets the stage for what most believe will be one of the most interesting, and contested, Democratic primaries for governor, pitting two statewide office holders with access to huge warchests battling over the airwaves and everywhere else.

Edmondson has scheduled press conferences in Oklahoma City, Tulsa and Muskogee. He's already created a campaign fund and initiated an "Edmondson 2010" Internet site.

The press conferences are scheduled for 10 a.m. at the Capitol, 2 p.m. at the Tulsa Press Club and 4:30 p.m. at the Muskogee County Courthouse.

Democrat Askins, of Duncan, Republican Congresswoman Mary Fallin of Oklahoma City and Senator Randy Brogdon of Owasso have already entered the race.

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Pollster Suggests Watts May Eye Senate Race

A North Carolina-based pollster, Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling, suggested today in a KTOK interview that former Congressman J. C. Watts may be eyeing the U. S. Senate seat now held by Tom Coburn as well as the governor's race.

Jensen's comment came in an interview with the station's Reid Mullins. Jensen was discussing a new poll by his firm that shows Congresswoman Mary Fallin leading the field of candidates for governor next year. Watts, who has indicated he's considering the race, was included in the poll. Also included were Lt. Governor Jari Askins and Attorney General Drew Edmondson. Senator Randy Brogdon, a declared Republican candidate, apparently was not included in the poll.

Coburn has not yet announced if he'll seek reelection; he said on Monday he will announce his decision on June 1st. Former Governor Frank Keating reportedly has his eye on the seat if Coburn opts not to seek reelection.

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Wright Says He'll Seek No. 2 State Office

Rep. John Wright, Broken Arrow Republican, announced today he'll seek the GOP nomination for lieutenant governor next year.

He's the third announced candidate for the office to be vacated by Lt. Governor Jari Askins, announced candidate for the Democratic nomination for governor; Senator Kenneth Corn, Poteau Democrat, announced earlier. Yukon Republican Rep. Colby Schwartz said in March he "may" seek the GOP nomination and he's considered a candidate.

Wright is term-limited in the Legislature and cannot seek reelection.

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McIntosh County: No Record Of Watts' Vote In 2006 Governor's Race But He Says He Voted Absentee

Examination of the voting records of the five announced and potential candidates for governor next year shows that one of them, former Congressman J. C. Watts, apparently did not vote in the 2006 general election for governor.

At least that's what the record shows. However, Watts insists through spokesman Chad Alexander that he did vote, and he and his wife, Frankie, completed their absentee ballots and mailed them together. Her ballot is shown as having been received, while his is not.

Watts, who registered to vote in McIntosh County on June 28, 2004, listing a rural address a few miles outside his hometown of Eufaula, always votes by absentee ballot, county election board records show.

The records show he voted once in 2006, in the July 25th Republican primary. But there's no record that he voted in the general election, in which Congressman Ernest Istook was pitted against incumbent Governor Brad Henry, a race Henry easily won. Two calls were made to the McIntosh County Election Board to confirm that no record exists of a Watts vote in the general election and Alexander said today he also spoke with the election board and confirms there's no record of Watts' absentee ballot having been received.

Watts has not yet announced he's a candidate for the Republican nomination for governor, but he is expected to do so soon. He is now a Washington lobbyist.

Records in Stephens County show that Democrat Jari Askins, lieutenant governor who is an announced candidate for her party's nomination for governor, registered to vote at her current address in Duncan on October 20, 1971. She has voted at least 67 times. In 2006, the record shows, she voted on February 14th, April 4th, July 25th, August 22nd and November 7th.

Records in Tulsa County show that Republican Randy Brogdon, state senator who is an announced candidate for his party's nomination for governor, registered to vote at his current address in Owasso on August 13th, 1980. He has voted at least 38 times. In 2006, the record shows, he voted on July 25th, August 22nd and November 7th.

Records in Oklahoma County show that Democrat Drew Edmondson, attorney general who has not yet announced he is a candidate for his party's nomination for governor but is expected to do so, registered to vote at his current address on December 18th, 2005. He has voted at least 10 times; he was a regular voter at his previous address as well. In 2006, the record shows, he voted on March 7th, May 9th, July 25th, August 22nd and November 7th.

Records in Oklahoma County show that Republican Mary Fallin, congresswoman who is an announced candidate for her party's nomination for governor, registered to vote at her current address on October 24th, 1986. She has voted at least 63 times. In 2006, the record shows, she voted on March 7th, July 25th, August 22nd and November 7th.

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Is Watts About To Announce In Governor's Race?

There's word today from multiple sources that former 4th District Congressman J. C. Watts, now a Washington lobbyist, is about to enter the 2010 governor's race.

Watts has said for weeks he'll make a decision by Memorial Day. If he gets into the race for the Republican nomination, he'll join Congresswoman Mary Fallin and State Senator Randy Brogdon of Owasso, both of whom already have announced.

In what appears to be a coincidence, word that Watts may be about to enter the race comes at the same time as word there's a new statewide poll that will be released on Tuesday showing that if Watts does enter the race, he will be in a competitive position with Fallin, considered the front-runner for the nomination.

"He's at 95 percent (to run)," said one source in a position to know.

Fallin's pollster, The Tarrance Group in Washington, earlier distributed a memo to supporters showing Fallin in the lead. The late April poll showed Fallin preferred among registered Republicans with 45.3 percent of the vote to 25.9 percent for Watts. Brogdon, of Owasso, got 5 percent.

A SoonerPoll released earlier this month showed Fallin at 48 percent, Watts at 34 percent.

Democrats Jari Askins, lieutenant governor, and Drew Edmondson, attorney general, are the top Democrats. Askins has announced, Edmondson has not.

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Attorneys Fuel Edmondson Campaign With $247,000; Fallin's Daily Average Tops In Field

If the race for the Democratic nomination for governor next year comes down to which candidate gets the most money from attorneys, Drew Edmondson will win hands down.

Analysis By Mike McCarville

The sitting attorney general, who has not yet officially announced he's a candidate, raised $289,385 in the first quarter of the year, $247,020 of it coming from attorneys with $65,000 of it in $5,000 chunks.

Declared candidate Lt. Governor Jari Askins, on the other hand, has just three $5,000 donors in her total of $117,945. Most of her donors gave in small amounts and few are attorneys.

On the Republican side, Congresswoman Mary Fallin's fundraising total is $108,565, with nine donors of $5,000 and she appears to lead the field in dollars-per-day-average.

Senator Randy Brogdon has just one $5,000 donor in his total of $22,700.

The campaign finance reports of the candidates show the following maximum donors:

EDMONDSON: (all attorneys unless otherwise noted) Terry West, Shawnee; Preston Trimble, Norman; Richard A. Bell, Norman; Tricia Everest, Oklahoma City; J. D. Williams, Pearsall, Texas; Cary Petterson, Texarkana, Texas; Dickstein, Shapiro, Washington; Mitchell Garrett, Tulsa; Darren Cleck, Radnor, Pennyslvania; Reggie Whitten, Edmond; Fred Boettcher, Ponca City; David Garrett, Oklahoma City; Dave Roberts, Oklahoma City; and Ada oilman Mike Cantrell. Edmondson appears to have averaged raising about $3,528 per day, weekends included, for the 82-day period from January 8th to March 31st even though many of his donations from numerous attorneys arrived on the same day.

ASKINS: Charles Harrison, Oklahoma City businessman;Tina Bonner, Duncan; Joan Hambrick, Oklahoma City. Askins appears to have averaged raising about $2,457 per day, weekends included, for the 48-day period February 12th to March 30th.

FALLIN: David Rainbolt, Oklahoma City banker; David Freymiller, trucking company owner; Leo Baxter, Lawton; Floyd Gilreath, Edmond businessman; Jim Everest, Oklahoma City investor; Dan Freymiller, Bethany trucking company owner; Gary D. Smith, Edmond businessman; Albert Kelly, Bristow banker; and Rep. David Dank, Oklahoma City. Fallin appears to have averaged raising about $3,619 per day, weekends included, for the 30-day period March 2nd to March 31st.

BROGDON: Lloyd Noble II, Tulsa investor. Brogdon appears to have averaged raising about $1,513 per day, weekends included, for the 15-day period March 17th to March 31st.

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Poll: Fallin With Huge Lead Over Brogdon, Watts; Askins Leads Edmondson By Slight Margin

The SoonerPoll reports that Congresswoman Mary Fallin has a huge lead over possible gubernatorial primary opponent J. C. Watts and announced opponent Senator Randy Brogdon.

The late April poll shows Fallin preferred among registered Republicans with 45.3 percent of the vote to 25.9 percent for Watts, who has not announced his candidacy. Brogdon, of Owasso, got 5 percent.

In a two-way race for the Democratic nomination Lt. Governor Jari Askins had 33.9 percent and Attorney General Drew Edmondson had 28.6 percent.

The sampling was of 168 registered Democrats, 139 registered Republicans and 11 independents. It was conducted April 23-26 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.5 percentage points.

Of the Republicans surveyed, 23.7 percent indicated they did not have a preference or declined to answer.

"I think J.C. not having been on the ballot since 2002 is having an impact on his numbers. Memories are short in politics," said Bill Shapard of The SoonerPoll, which he heads with political science professor, author and pollster Keith Gaddie.

"I think if J.C. is going to run and be a viable candidate, he's almost going to have to reintroduce himself to the electorate. We've had a few more football stars since he last ran," Shapard told The Associated Press.

Shapard said the poll shows Askins and Edmondson "are well known among the Democratic electorate, which is evidently divided between the two. I think that is going to be a dogfight primary if Edmondson finally commits to the race."

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Edmondson Has Money Lead In Governor's Race

The Associated Press reports that Democratic Attorney General Drew Edmondson has taken the early lead in fundraising in the 2010 governor's race.

A report prepared for filing with the Oklahoma Ethics Commission on Thursday shows Edmondson, who has not yet officially announced as a candidate, had raised more than $289,000 and had almost $473,000 in the bank.

Edmondson's quarterly total was more than twice as much as other major figures in the race, Democratic Lt. Governor Jari Askins and Republican Congresswoman Mary Fallin.

Fallin's report showed she has raised $108,565. Askins has not yet filed her report, but spokesman Don Hoover said she's raised more than $116,000.

Republican Senator Randy Brogdon, an announced candidate, has raised about $27,000.

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Poll: Fallin Leads Gubernatorial Pack

By Randy Krehbiel/Tulsa World Staff Writer ~ U.S. Rep. Mary Fallin appears to have a head start on four other possible candidates for the 2010 governor's race, a recent poll indicates.

Fallin, a Republican from the Fifth District, was the only one of the five with a favorable rating of more than 50 percent. She also had the highest name recognition.

"Even 20 percent of Democrats said they have a strong favorable impression of Mary Fallin, which is pretty high," said Bill Shapard, president of SoonerPoll.com in Oklahoma City.

The survey of 339 likely voters across the state was conducted Feb. 27-March 4. It has a 5.32 percentage point margin of error. The poll was not commissioned by the Tulsa World, although SoonerPoll has conducted other polls for the World.

The sample was 49 percent registered Democrats, 45 percent registered Republicans and 6 percent registered independents, reflecting the state's overall voter registration. All of those surveyed have voted regularly.

Respondents were asked their impressions of five potential gubernatorial candidates: Fallin; U.S. Rep. Tom Cole, a Republican from the Fourth District; state Sen. Randy Brogdon, R-Owasso; and Oklahoma Attorney General Drew Edmondson and Lt. Gov. Jari Askins, both Democrats.

The poll was released at about the same time Brogdon said he's officially a candidate. He had indicated earlier he would join Fallin in seeking the GOP nomination.

Fallin was viewed strongly or somewhat favorably by 57 percent, including 75 percent of Republicans. More than 40 percent of Democrats were strongly or somewhat favorable toward Fallin, a two-term member of Congress who previously spent 12 years as the lieutenant governor.

Among Democrats, Edmondson had a combined favorable rating of 45 percent and Askins 32 percent.

Although the 2010 primaries are more than a year away, there is some indication that voter opinions are already taking shape, Shapard said. He noted that only 15 percent of the Republicans surveyed and 29 percent of Democrats said they are undecided about the race.

"A lot of people are already looking toward it," he said. There was some indication that voters don't know much about individual candidates. Even Edmondson, the state's attorney general since 1995, was unknown to more than a third of the respondents. Askins, the lieutenant governor since 2007, was unknown to nearly half. Cole was unknown to just more than half the respondents, with a favorable rating of 36 percent. Only one-fourth of those surveyed said they had no opinion of Fallin.

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Cole Says No To Race For Governor

By Jim Myers/Tulsa World Washington Bureau ~ U.S. Rep. Tom Cole announced Monday he will not run for governor next year.

"It was a close call. I thought about it long and hard,'' the Oklahoma Republican said. "Strangely enough at the end, I thought Oklahoma was doing awfully well.''

Cole then cited challenges on the federal level, adding that he thought he could offer more for Oklahoma by remaining in Congress. Taxes and budget issues topped his list of concerns. Cole said his philosophy has been ''you always ride to the sound of the guns.''

A new member of the House Appropriations Committee, one of the more coveted panels in Congress, Cole also reflected on the importance of that appointment as well as the seniority he has built up in his current post.

"I am pretty pleased with the candidates that are out there,'' he said.

Rep. Mary Fallin already has jumped into the race on the Republican side, and former Rep. J.C. Watts and state Sen. Randy Brogdon are considering a bid.

Cole's announcement will fuel speculation that Watts will make the race. The two men have been close friends for years.

"I certainly would never run against J.C. Watts,'' Cole said, adding, however, his decision against running was not connected to Watts' future. "I don't know what he is going to do.''

Asked if he would be make an endorsement, Cole said it would be premature for him to say.

On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Jari Askins has said she is running and Attorney General Drew Edmondson is scheduled to make an announcement later this year. State Treasurer Scott Meacham is considered a potential candidate

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Services Thursday For Jarita Askins

Funeral services for Jarita Askins, mother of Lt. Governor Jari Askins, will be held at 1 p.m. Thursday at First Christian Church in Duncan. Mrs. Askins, 85, died Sunday. She was a longtime Duncan civic activist and homemaker.

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Jari Askins' Mother Dies At Age 85

Jarita Askins, mother of Lt. Governor Jari Askins, died today at age 85. Mrs. Askins is shown with family in this 2008 Christmas photo.

Lt. Governor Askins said, “My brother Marty and sister Carrie join me in sharing the difficult news that Jarita Askins, our beloved mother has passed away at 85 years of age. Our mother’s life was filled with love of God, her family, and the community she dearly loved to call home.”

Mrs. Askins, one of Duncan’s most respected community leaders, died earlier today at her Duncan home following an extended illness.

Funeral arrangements will be announced on Monday.

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Carey Says Lt. Governor Race Likely

Rep. John Carey of Durant says there is a "99.9 percent chance" he'll run for lieutenant governor in 2010.

The 38-year-old Democrat told The Durant Daily Democrat Tuesday he expects to make a formal announcement in June.

One other Democrat already has announced plans to seek the post — Senator Kenneth Corn of Poteau officially launched his campaign in January.

Current Oklahoma Lt. Governor Jari Askins, also a Democrat, has said she will run for governor in 2010.

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AP's Jenkins: Richardson Eyes 2010 Race

By Ron Jenkins/The Associated Press ~ When she announced she would be running for governor in 2010, U.S. Rep. Mary Fallin didn’t seem to have a lot of Republican primary opposition on the horizon.

Only fellow Rep. Tom Cole was said to be considering the race, and Cole has not made a public comment about his political future since Fallin announced.

Now at least three other possible GOP primary candidates are testing the waters — former U.S. Rep. J.C. Watts, state Sen. Randy Brogdon of Owasso and a new entry — Tulsa attorney Gary Richardson.

"I’ve been toying with the idea for a few weeks,” Richardson told The Associated Press of the possibility he will run "most probably as a Republican.”

Read the entire story at http://www.newsok.com/tulsa-lawyer-gary-richardson-may-join-race-for-oklahoma-governor/article/3353700?custom_click=pod_headline_politics.

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