Sanford And Sin...

Hastings Wyman of the Southern Political Report weighs in with a piece on the feet of clay demonstrated by the sexual escapades of Republicans and Democrats.

Read it at http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_629_922.aspx.

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SPR Tracks Oklahoma Governor's Race

By Hastings Wyman/Southern Political Report ~ While at least two earlier surveys have shown US Rep. Mary Fallin (R-OK) ahead of unannounced-but-probable contender J. C. Watts (R), a former congressman, the latest poll for next year’s GOP gubernatorial primary, taken by Wilson Research Strategies, gives Watts 39% to Fallin’s 36%, with 5% for state Sen. Randy Brogdon (R), a social conservative. Watts is expected to announce any day now. In media interviews, analysts of the Wilson poll suggest Watts gained as it began to sink in that he was likely to run. Once the only African-American Republican in Congress, Watts had high approval ratings in all the recent surveys. Meanwhile, The McCarville Report says that the records show Watts did not vote in the 2006 gubernatorial election. Watts says he sent in an absentee ballot with his wife’s ballot and doesn’t know why hers was recorded but his was not.

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SPR: Governor's Race Could Be Crowded

By Hastings Wyman/Southern Political Report ~ Last week second-term US Rep. Mary Fallin (R) announced her candidacy for governor of Oklahoma. Speaking to the Oklahoma County Republican Convention, the former lieutenant governor said she would seek the governorship, prompting cheers from the delegates. Fallin, 54, who has served in the legislature, as the state’s first woman -- and first Republican -- lieutenant governor, and in Congress, enters the race as a very strong contender for the GOP nomination and for the General Election.

In her remarks, Fallin said she wanted to use her experience to help Oklahoma during this recession “and lead us into a prosperous economy.”

Fallin “is in the catbird seat,” says long-time Sooner State political commentator Mike McCarville. “She’s never lost a race. She’s solid in the 5th District (Oklahoma City, etc.) She will be awfully tough.”

Another factor that will help her in the primary is that during her nearly 20 years in elective office, including 12 as lieutenant governor, “she did every rubber chicken dinner for everyone who asked,” says University of Oklahoma political science professor -- and pollster -- Keith Gaddie. “She has collected tons and tons of support for that.”

But even if Fallin is the early favorite, at least on the GOP side, she could well face a contested primary. US Rep. Tom Cole (R) has hinted that he might be interested in the governorship, and has yet to say yea or nay on the 2010 race.

Former Congressman J. C. Watts (R), once the only African-American Republican in Congress, has also expressed interest in running. Observers, however, doubt he would leave his lucrative lobbying work in Washington to re-enter Oklahoma politics.

There are several less well-known political figures who could run. One is state Sen. Randy Brogdon, who has strong ties to the more conservative wing of the Oklahoma GOP. Brogdon might have an opening against either Fallin or Cole over their support for President Bush’s stimulus package. Cole voted for it initially and on final passage. Fallin first voted against it, but supported it on the second vote. “None of this stuff is particularly popular in Oklahoma,” says Gaddie. Both, however, opposed President Obama’s stimulus legislation.

Another possible Republican contender is Oklahoma Senate President Pro Tem Glenn Coffee, a powerful influence on state government. “He’s running the policy agenda right now,” notes Gaddie. And businessman (oil) Bob Sullivan, who got 31% against Ernest Istook, in the 2006 GOP gubernatorial primary, has also been mentioned.

On the Democratic side, interest in the governorship is almost as strong. With incumbent Gov. Brad Henry (D) term-limited, last year, Lt. Gov. Jari Askins announced she would run for governor in 2010.

“She’s pretty dog-gone strong,” says McCarville, noting that she is wealthy and “has shown no hesitation to spend it in the past.” He adds, “We could end up with female nominees in both parties. That would be a first.”

Another Democrat, state Attorney General Drew Edmondson, is also a possible gubernatorial candidate. He would be formidable, but his interest in the race has been known for some time and didn’t prevent Askins from entering the race.

Projecting a General Election winner at this early stage is risky at best. One private poll, however, shows either Fallin or Watts, both Republicans, leading Democrats Askins and Edmondson by more than the margin of error. Neither GOPer, however, exceeded 50 percent.

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Confirmed: South Is Nation's Bible Belt

From Grits By Hastings Wyman/Southern Political Report ~ The Gallup Poll has confirmed what we already suspected, that the South is the nation’s Bible Belt.

According to results of a survey of 350,000 interviews, published in the Washington Post, when asked if religion is an important part of their daily lives, the top eleven states were all in the South.

The two Dixie stragglers -- both with lots of Yankees -- were Virginia and Florida, which ranked 16th and 23rd, respectively.

What’s more, although the South’s blacks and whites disagree on politics, they have one big thing in common: Both races in Dixie are very religious.

Here are the Southern states in order of religiosity, followed by the percentage who said religion is important in their daily lives: MS (85%); AL (82%); SC (80%); TN (79%); LA (78%); AR (78%); GA (76%); NC (76%); OK (75%); KY (74%); TX (74%); VA (68%); and FL (65%). Florida, the least religious state in Dixie, still equaled the national average of 65%.

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Wyman: The Obama-Coburn Connection

By Hastings Wyman/Southern Political Report ~ US Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) has the reputation for being one of the Senate’s most conservative members, with an aversion to federal spending, and especially to earmarks, that is consistently vehement. So although Coburn and President-elect Barack Obama have at times cooperated on mutual goals, it still came as a surprise last week to hear Coburn on CNBC speaking favorably of Obama’s pending economic stimulus package.

Most of Coburn’s praise centered on Obama’s tax cut component, which may account for 40% of the stimulus. And Coburn made clear that he’s on good terms with the president-elect, noting that he had spoken with Obama in the past few days about his economic plans. The Oklahoma GOPer used a warm and favorable tone toward Obama that conservatives rarely use for liberals (and vice versa). Coburn, for example, did not echo the starchy coolness that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) exhibited toward Obama’s package when he questioned the amount of money involved -- some $800 billion, or perhaps as much as $1 trillion.

Indeed, Coburn has sounded much more favorable to Obama’s economic policies that some high-placed Democrats.

“I think the things that Coburn said he found good in Obama’s stimulus package are some of the things you’ve heard some Democrats complain about,” says Chad Alexander, a political consultant.

Such high-placed Democrats as Senate Finance Committee members John Kerry (MA) and Kent Conrad (ND), as well as powerful House Financial Services Committee Chair Barney Frank (MA), have been publicly critical of various aspects of Obama’s stimulus package, among them the tax cuts and a tax credit for employers who hire additional employees.

The Obama-Coburn alliance illustrates the flip-side of a polarizing response to Obama’s policies which appears to be developing in Washington. Liberal Democrats fear the president-elect is giving away the store in a futile attempt to court the GOP, and conservative Republicans fear the charming Obama is seducing them into what will eventually become a major federal spending spree, with disastrous consequences for the economy long-term.

Regardless of the national political dynamics at play, however, Coburn is likely to stay on the good side of Sooner State voters, including his conservative backers.

Coburn’s favorable comments about Obama’s economic policies "won’t upset conservatives here,” says Alexander, a former Oklahoma state Republican chairman.

“Coburn has a reputation for being such a maverick on spending issues that folks give him the benefit of any doubt,” agrees Mike McCarville, a long-time right-leaning Oklahoma radio talk show host and journalist.

Moreover, Oklahomans are used to Coburn’s reaching across the aisle on some issues.

“Coburn has demonstrated in the House and Senate that he’ll work with anybody with whom he agrees on an issue, whether liberal or conservative, Democratic or Republican,” says McCarville.

Kyle Loveless, a Republican consultant whose wife once worked on Coburn's US House staff, says of Coburn, “He’s principled and holds to his principles, but he does not let party get in his way.”

Loveless notes that Coburn and Obama struck up a good relationship on several past issues, most notably the Federal Funding Accountability and Transparency Act, successfully sponsored by Coburn and Obama in 2006, which requires full disclosure to the public of all recipients of federal funds. Obama mentioned this legislation several times in his campaign as evidence he could work across party lines. “Eighty- to ninety percent of stuff they disagree on, but in some areas they agree,” concludes Loveless.

Moreover, folks in Oklahoma are familiar with and trust Coburn’s maverick’s approach to politics. Many of them know that when you call his office in the US Capitol, his receptionist answers the phone, “Dr. Coburn’s office,” not “Senator Coburn’s office,” a symbol of his long-running feud with the Senate over his continuing to deliver babies while he serves in Congress’s stuffy upper chamber.

Coburn comes up for re-election next year and has not decided whether he will run again. Since John McCain carried every single county Oklahoma, Coburn’s warm relationship with Obama does not appear designed to help Coburn win votes in 2010. However, Coburn does have the luxury of operating in a political environment that is favorable to him personally; his approval rating generally hovers around 60%.

So what will this odd-couple cooperation mean in the long term, for the Obama Administration or for Oklahoma? “On several issues … [Coburn] has found common ground with Obama,” concludes McCarville, but “how far this will go, nobody knows.” Stay tuned.

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Black And White: The Vote In Dixie

By Hastings Wyman/Southern Political Report ~ Barack Obama divided Dixie’s electoral votes, splitting the GOP’s Southern base much like Democrats Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton before him, an impressive feat by anyone’s measure, considering that Obama is both black and a Yankee, while Carter and Clinton were both white and Southern.

Aside from carrying Virginia, North Carolina and Florida, Obama garnered a higher share of the vote than John Kerry did in 2004 in nine Southern states -- all but Arkansas, Louisiana and Tennessee, with Obama running even with Kerry in Oklahoma.

Read Wyman's column at http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/.

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Wyman: Rice, Corn (No Puns Intended) Eye Inhofe

By Hastings Wyman In The Southern Political Report ~ Two Democratic state senators are considering running against US Sen. Jim Inhofe (R), 72, in 2008. State Sen. Andrew Rice (left), 34, is traveling the state before making his decision, but has already said that he has encountered “an outpouring of support” for a race against Inhofe. Another potential candidate is state Sen. Ken Corn (right), 30, who is in his second and final term in the senate. Read Wyman's complete article here.

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Hasting Wymans Surveys The GOP 'Southern' Field

By Hasting Wymans, Southern Political Report ~ Southern Republicans continue to jump into -- or dip a toe in -- the 2008 presidential waters. US Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) made his candidacy official on Monday, announcing from Washington, DC, that he is a candidate for the GOP presidential nomination.

Paul, though a long shot at best, is no stranger to presidential politics. In 1988, Paul garnered some 432,000 votes -- or about ½ of 1% -- as the Libertarian Party’s nominee for president. He will not resign his House seat to run, however, suggesting the highly principled ideologue has not entirely lost sight of practical politics. Paul, who is 71, has made news in recent years for his opposition to the war in Iraq, not the typical position for Southern Republicans.

A more likely prospect for the Republican nomination if he runs, though still a dark horse, is former US Sen. Fred Thompson (R-TN). Thompson served eight years in the Senate before retiring in 2002. Although he made his professional reputation early in life as an attorney -- he was the Minority Counsel to the Senate’s Watergate Committee in 1973-74 -- Thompson is better known of late for his role as the District Attorney in the television series Law & Order, one of a number of dramatic roles in film and television that the Nashville politico has played.
While Thompson’s voting record in the Senate was fairly conservative, he has more of the feel of a mainstream Republican in the mold of his fellow Tennessean former Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker. So whether he can fill the gap on the GOP’s right left by the leading ex-moderates -- John McCain, Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani -- in the Republican race remains to be seen.

If both Thompson and Paul run, there are likely to be five Southern Republicans in the 2008 White House sweepstakes.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has been conducting a highly visible campaign, criss-crossing those states -- especially in the South -- with early primaries and hitting the television talk shows.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, while not formally in the race, is a sure-thing for the 2008 contest, says InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery, who served as Gingrich’s campaign chairman from 1992 until he resigned from Congress. In a recent column, Towery wrote that he is “100 percent positive that Gingrich will enter the battle for the GOP nomination… The real issue for Team Gingrich on a presidential announcement is not if, but when."

Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore announced last December and filed with the Federal Election Commission in January, but little has been heard from him since then. He did, however, make the rounds at the recent the American Conservative Union Political Action Committee conference in Washington, and has hired a New York consultant.

Ironically, however, it is the Yankees in the race who continue to be the favorites of Southern Republicans. New Yorker Giuliani is leading in the polls, even in Dixie; McCain, from Arizona, is usually second, with former Massachusetts Romney third or fourth. So far, Gingrich is the only Southerner to show popular strength among Dixie voters, usually running third or fourth.

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