SPR: Governor's Race Could Be Crowded
By Hastings Wyman/Southern Political Report ~ Last week second-term US Rep. Mary Fallin (R) announced her candidacy for governor of Oklahoma. Speaking to the Oklahoma County Republican Convention, the former lieutenant governor said she would seek the governorship, prompting cheers from the delegates. Fallin, 54, who has served in the legislature, as the state’s first woman -- and first Republican -- lieutenant governor, and in Congress, enters the race as a very strong contender for the GOP nomination and for the General Election.
In her remarks, Fallin said she wanted to use her experience to help Oklahoma during this recession “and lead us into a prosperous economy.”
Fallin “is in the catbird seat,” says long-time Sooner State political commentator Mike McCarville. “She’s never lost a race. She’s solid in the 5th District (Oklahoma City, etc.) She will be awfully tough.”
Another factor that will help her in the primary is that during her nearly 20 years in elective office, including 12 as lieutenant governor, “she did every rubber chicken dinner for everyone who asked,” says University of Oklahoma political science professor -- and pollster -- Keith Gaddie. “She has collected tons and tons of support for that.”
But even if Fallin is the early favorite, at least on the GOP side, she could well face a contested primary. US Rep. Tom Cole (R) has hinted that he might be interested in the governorship, and has yet to say yea or nay on the 2010 race.
Former Congressman J. C. Watts (R), once the only African-American Republican in Congress, has also expressed interest in running. Observers, however, doubt he would leave his lucrative lobbying work in Washington to re-enter Oklahoma politics.
There are several less well-known political figures who could run. One is state Sen. Randy Brogdon, who has strong ties to the more conservative wing of the Oklahoma GOP. Brogdon might have an opening against either Fallin or Cole over their support for President Bush’s stimulus package. Cole voted for it initially and on final passage. Fallin first voted against it, but supported it on the second vote. “None of this stuff is particularly popular in Oklahoma,” says Gaddie. Both, however, opposed President Obama’s stimulus legislation.
Another possible Republican contender is Oklahoma Senate President Pro Tem Glenn Coffee, a powerful influence on state government. “He’s running the policy agenda right now,” notes Gaddie. And businessman (oil) Bob Sullivan, who got 31% against Ernest Istook, in the 2006 GOP gubernatorial primary, has also been mentioned.
On the Democratic side, interest in the governorship is almost as strong. With incumbent Gov. Brad Henry (D) term-limited, last year, Lt. Gov. Jari Askins announced she would run for governor in 2010.
“She’s pretty dog-gone strong,” says McCarville, noting that she is wealthy and “has shown no hesitation to spend it in the past.” He adds, “We could end up with female nominees in both parties. That would be a first.”
Another Democrat, state Attorney General Drew Edmondson, is also a possible gubernatorial candidate. He would be formidable, but his interest in the race has been known for some time and didn’t prevent Askins from entering the race.
Projecting a General Election winner at this early stage is risky at best. One private poll, however, shows either Fallin or Watts, both Republicans, leading Democrats Askins and Edmondson by more than the margin of error. Neither GOPer, however, exceeded 50 percent.
In her remarks, Fallin said she wanted to use her experience to help Oklahoma during this recession “and lead us into a prosperous economy.”
Fallin “is in the catbird seat,” says long-time Sooner State political commentator Mike McCarville. “She’s never lost a race. She’s solid in the 5th District (Oklahoma City, etc.) She will be awfully tough.”
Another factor that will help her in the primary is that during her nearly 20 years in elective office, including 12 as lieutenant governor, “she did every rubber chicken dinner for everyone who asked,” says University of Oklahoma political science professor -- and pollster -- Keith Gaddie. “She has collected tons and tons of support for that.”
But even if Fallin is the early favorite, at least on the GOP side, she could well face a contested primary. US Rep. Tom Cole (R) has hinted that he might be interested in the governorship, and has yet to say yea or nay on the 2010 race.
Former Congressman J. C. Watts (R), once the only African-American Republican in Congress, has also expressed interest in running. Observers, however, doubt he would leave his lucrative lobbying work in Washington to re-enter Oklahoma politics.
There are several less well-known political figures who could run. One is state Sen. Randy Brogdon, who has strong ties to the more conservative wing of the Oklahoma GOP. Brogdon might have an opening against either Fallin or Cole over their support for President Bush’s stimulus package. Cole voted for it initially and on final passage. Fallin first voted against it, but supported it on the second vote. “None of this stuff is particularly popular in Oklahoma,” says Gaddie. Both, however, opposed President Obama’s stimulus legislation.
Another possible Republican contender is Oklahoma Senate President Pro Tem Glenn Coffee, a powerful influence on state government. “He’s running the policy agenda right now,” notes Gaddie. And businessman (oil) Bob Sullivan, who got 31% against Ernest Istook, in the 2006 GOP gubernatorial primary, has also been mentioned.
On the Democratic side, interest in the governorship is almost as strong. With incumbent Gov. Brad Henry (D) term-limited, last year, Lt. Gov. Jari Askins announced she would run for governor in 2010.
“She’s pretty dog-gone strong,” says McCarville, noting that she is wealthy and “has shown no hesitation to spend it in the past.” He adds, “We could end up with female nominees in both parties. That would be a first.”
Another Democrat, state Attorney General Drew Edmondson, is also a possible gubernatorial candidate. He would be formidable, but his interest in the race has been known for some time and didn’t prevent Askins from entering the race.
Projecting a General Election winner at this early stage is risky at best. One private poll, however, shows either Fallin or Watts, both Republicans, leading Democrats Askins and Edmondson by more than the margin of error. Neither GOPer, however, exceeded 50 percent.
Labels: Bob Sullivan, Drew Edmondson, Ernest Istook, Glenn Coffee, Hastings Wyman, J. C. Watts, Jari Askins, Keith Gaddie, Mary Fallin, Mike McCarville, Randy Brogdon, Tom Cole
posted by Mike McCarville @ 9:35 AM
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