In Texas, A 'GOP Gubernatorial Smackdown'

Hastings Wyman of the Southern Political Report has an interesting analysis of the Texas Republican primary for governor and its possible national implications. Read it at www.southernpoliticalreport.com.

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Wyman: The Obama-Coburn Connection

By Hastings Wyman/Southern Political Report ~ US Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) has the reputation for being one of the Senate’s most conservative members, with an aversion to federal spending, and especially to earmarks, that is consistently vehement. So although Coburn and President-elect Barack Obama have at times cooperated on mutual goals, it still came as a surprise last week to hear Coburn on CNBC speaking favorably of Obama’s pending economic stimulus package.

Most of Coburn’s praise centered on Obama’s tax cut component, which may account for 40% of the stimulus. And Coburn made clear that he’s on good terms with the president-elect, noting that he had spoken with Obama in the past few days about his economic plans. The Oklahoma GOPer used a warm and favorable tone toward Obama that conservatives rarely use for liberals (and vice versa). Coburn, for example, did not echo the starchy coolness that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) exhibited toward Obama’s package when he questioned the amount of money involved -- some $800 billion, or perhaps as much as $1 trillion.

Indeed, Coburn has sounded much more favorable to Obama’s economic policies that some high-placed Democrats.

“I think the things that Coburn said he found good in Obama’s stimulus package are some of the things you’ve heard some Democrats complain about,” says Chad Alexander, a political consultant.

Such high-placed Democrats as Senate Finance Committee members John Kerry (MA) and Kent Conrad (ND), as well as powerful House Financial Services Committee Chair Barney Frank (MA), have been publicly critical of various aspects of Obama’s stimulus package, among them the tax cuts and a tax credit for employers who hire additional employees.

The Obama-Coburn alliance illustrates the flip-side of a polarizing response to Obama’s policies which appears to be developing in Washington. Liberal Democrats fear the president-elect is giving away the store in a futile attempt to court the GOP, and conservative Republicans fear the charming Obama is seducing them into what will eventually become a major federal spending spree, with disastrous consequences for the economy long-term.

Regardless of the national political dynamics at play, however, Coburn is likely to stay on the good side of Sooner State voters, including his conservative backers.

Coburn’s favorable comments about Obama’s economic policies "won’t upset conservatives here,” says Alexander, a former Oklahoma state Republican chairman.

“Coburn has a reputation for being such a maverick on spending issues that folks give him the benefit of any doubt,” agrees Mike McCarville, a long-time right-leaning Oklahoma radio talk show host and journalist.

Moreover, Oklahomans are used to Coburn’s reaching across the aisle on some issues.

“Coburn has demonstrated in the House and Senate that he’ll work with anybody with whom he agrees on an issue, whether liberal or conservative, Democratic or Republican,” says McCarville.

Kyle Loveless, a Republican consultant whose wife once worked on Coburn's US House staff, says of Coburn, “He’s principled and holds to his principles, but he does not let party get in his way.”

Loveless notes that Coburn and Obama struck up a good relationship on several past issues, most notably the Federal Funding Accountability and Transparency Act, successfully sponsored by Coburn and Obama in 2006, which requires full disclosure to the public of all recipients of federal funds. Obama mentioned this legislation several times in his campaign as evidence he could work across party lines. “Eighty- to ninety percent of stuff they disagree on, but in some areas they agree,” concludes Loveless.

Moreover, folks in Oklahoma are familiar with and trust Coburn’s maverick’s approach to politics. Many of them know that when you call his office in the US Capitol, his receptionist answers the phone, “Dr. Coburn’s office,” not “Senator Coburn’s office,” a symbol of his long-running feud with the Senate over his continuing to deliver babies while he serves in Congress’s stuffy upper chamber.

Coburn comes up for re-election next year and has not decided whether he will run again. Since John McCain carried every single county Oklahoma, Coburn’s warm relationship with Obama does not appear designed to help Coburn win votes in 2010. However, Coburn does have the luxury of operating in a political environment that is favorable to him personally; his approval rating generally hovers around 60%.

So what will this odd-couple cooperation mean in the long term, for the Obama Administration or for Oklahoma? “On several issues … [Coburn] has found common ground with Obama,” concludes McCarville, but “how far this will go, nobody knows.” Stay tuned.

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SPR: Oklahoma's 2010 Governor's Race

From A Southern Political Report Story On 2010 Governor's Races In The South ~ Oklahoma: Gov. Brad Henry (D) is term-limited and a spirited contest for the open seat is likely. The leading Democratic contender for now is Attorney General Drew Edmondson, scion of a family prominent in Oklahoma politics. Edmondson has been touring the state and is expected to announce in late 2009. But he may not have a clear field in his own party. Lt. Gov. Jari Askins and state Treasurer Scott Meacham are also getting mentioned for the job.

On the GOP side, two members of Congress are possible gubernatorial contenders. Congresswoman Mary Fallin, a former lieutenant governor, is getting mentioned; she was recently elected president of the sophomore class of House Republicans. Congressman Tom Cole, who earlier this month lost his position as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, is being talked about for governor. And Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett, who lost a runoff for Congress to Fallin in 2006, is also getting some attention for the job.

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Black And White: The Vote In Dixie

By Hastings Wyman/Southern Political Report ~ Barack Obama divided Dixie’s electoral votes, splitting the GOP’s Southern base much like Democrats Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton before him, an impressive feat by anyone’s measure, considering that Obama is both black and a Yankee, while Carter and Clinton were both white and Southern.

Aside from carrying Virginia, North Carolina and Florida, Obama garnered a higher share of the vote than John Kerry did in 2004 in nine Southern states -- all but Arkansas, Louisiana and Tennessee, with Obama running even with Kerry in Oklahoma.

Read Wyman's column at http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/.

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Towery: Obama Losing Youth Traction

By Matt Towery/Southern Political Report ~ The hidden story of the last week has been the shift in many states and nationwide among the youngest of voters, those ages 18-to-29, from a solid entrenchment in the Obama camp to a significant drift toward a newly revived John McCain effort, all courtesy of Gov. Sarah Palin.

Read all of Towery's column at www.southernpoliticalreport.com.

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SPR: Gaddie Column On Palin Selection

Keith Gaddie, pollster, pundit and political science professor has an opinion piece about Sarah Palin on Southern Political Report. Read it at http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_98_562.aspx.

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SPR's Baxter: Palin Works In The South

Noted Quote, from Tom Baxter/Southern Political Report: "It would be mistaken also to view (Alaska Governor Sarah) Palin as a candidate with regional appeal only in the Western states and does nothing for (McCain) in this part of the country. She’s so North she’s South. Give her one photo-op at a gun range in Southside Virginia or a megachurch in suburban Charlotte and that will become apparent."

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Will Pennsylvania Break Hillary's Political Back?

By Matt Towery, Southern Political Report ~ The elite of her own Democratic Party are turning on her. The media generally are undercutting her campaign. Her campaign coffers are looking barer every day.

Now a new poll suggests that the April 22 Pennsylvania Democratic primary could be the straw that breaks the back of Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign.

It is well known that for Sen. Clinton to have even a sporting chance of a brokered convention that might lead to her nomination, she must carry the remaining big state primaries, such as Pennsylvania. More, she must win them convincingly, if not overwhelmingly.

But an InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion poll conducted April 2 of 659 likely Democratic registered voters in Pennsylvania shows Clinton leading her opponent, Sen. Barack Obama, by only 45 percent to 42 percent, with the remainder of Democratic voters undecided.

For Clinton, there is nothing but bad news in the poll.

Her lead among white voters, who make up about 80 percent of the Democratic primary vote, was only a modest 49 percent to 40 percent.

Worse for her, the poll showed African-American voters supporting Obama by 56 percent to 29 percent for Clinton. If past races in this 2008 contest are any indication, that vote will trend more and more to Obama as Election Day approaches.

Our most recent survey in North Carolina indicates that Obama is leading handily there, where Clinton badly needs an upset victory to survive until the convention.

The fact is that the Democratic establishment, ranging from Howard Dean to the Kennedy-Kerry-Gore axis, has worked overtime to bury any chance for Hillary Clinton to stage a comeback. Based on media coverage, Clinton's gaff concerning the dodging of nonexistent bullets on a visit to Bosnia as First Lady has done more damage with voters than the explosive comments of Obama's former church minister, Reverend Jeremiah Wright.

There are a few things that are becoming apparent here. First, Clinton has virtually no chance of surviving this race.

The second thing is that the Democratic Party and media elite have finally found ways to pound the Clintons into the ground and "teach them" that they were never worthy of wearing the crown of "Democratic Royalty" to start with. That unofficial title is reserved for the wealthy and more refined Kennedys, Gores and the like.

If I were Bill and Hillary Clinton, I would be so angry that I would be unable to contain myself. Indeed, as for former President Bill Clinton, it is arguable as to whether he has been able to control himself.

They've dealt with a DNC chairman who darn well knew from the start that his position on the Florida and Michigan primaries and its delegates not counting would damage Hillary Clinton more than any other candidate.

Dean's appointments to the credentials committee for the national convention have been heavily weighted with those loyal to him and to Obama. At every step of the way Dean has set traps for Clinton.

When Bill Clinton chose to challenge Barack Obama's record, each and every comment was interpreted as a racial slur from a man who has been nothing less than one of the greatest friends to the African-American community in modern history.

Former Clinton guru James Carville is right when he says that Obama is treated differently than any other candidate. This is a rough and tumble business, but one in which every Clinton mistake is treated as fair play, while most questions about Obama are either overlooked or dismissed as his having dealt with them brilliantly.

And what does all of this have to say about the attitudes toward female candidates in America? While Hillary Clinton gets the greater percentage of women votes, it is nowhere near as lopsided as the percentage of African Americans who choose Obama. I've said before that I certainly understand this phenomenon. He is the first candidate of color to ever have a legitimate chance to capture the White House.

But what's good for the goose is good for the gander. If pride in achieving "firsts" can drive one demographic, why should the same not apply to another -- women? For whatever reason, younger women, based on polling and exit polls, have simply seen no reason to take ownership in Clinton's campaign.

Barack Obama may become the greatest political leader of our lifetime. Who knows? But the Democrats had better hope they are right in casting all their marbles with him. Because they slanted, shifted and stacked every card in the deck to do in Hillary.

It's looking like it worked.

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Basking In The Glow: Poll Gets Texas Right

Prior to Tuesday's Democratic primary vote in Texas, most polls showed Barack Obama leading. Most, but not all...and the folks at Southern Political Report admitted their necks were stuck out when, on Monday, they reported that their "new InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research poll of Texas runs contrary to most surveys of the state’s Democratic presidential contest. We show Sen. Hillary Clinton with the lead. Only PPP, a Democratic polling firm based in North Carolina, also shows Clinton leading. All other polls over the race’s final days have Obama leading."

Clinton won Texas, 51-49 percent.

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SPR Inside The Numbers: Hillary Clinton Demise A Warning To Barack Obama, John McCain

By Matt Towery, Southern Political Report ~ Newsweek's online edition recently featured a piece by former White House chief of staff Hamilton Jordan. He, along with Jody Powell, Jerry Rafshoon, Pat Caddell and others engineered the come-from-nowhere victory of Jimmy Carter in the 1976 presidential contest against Gerald Ford.

Jordan wrote in Newsweek: "I consider the Obama operation the most brilliant political campaign of my lifetime."

I take issue with Jordan, if for the ironic reason that I consider Carter's victory in 1976 to be the most brilliant campaign in modern history.

Read all of Matt's column at http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/.

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SPR: McCain, Romney Tied In Florida

From The Southern Political Report ~ Our latest InsiderAdvantage survey of Florida, conducted with our partners at Majority Opinion Research, shows John McCain and Mitt Romney in basically a tie going into the weekend before the huge Florida Republican primary.

Read the entire story at www.southernpoliticalreport.com.

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In South Carolina, Thompson A Disappointment

By Lee Bandy, South Carolina Insider ~ GOP presidential hopeful Fred Thompson has been a huge disappointment.

South Carolina conservative Republicans had looked upon the former U.S. senator from Tennessee as the savior who would come and snatch the party’s nomination away from the more progressive wing of the party.

Thompson teased the party faithful all summer long. One day he sounded like a candidate who might run. Then the next day his candidacy was a no-go.

Conservatives were breathlessly waiting for a decision. They were not pleased with any of the three frontrunners and eagerly welcomed an alternative.

Read all of Lee's analysis on the Southern Political Report.

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SPR: Huckabee In 2nd Place In Florida

From The Southern Political Report ~ Mike Huckabee has moved into second place among Republican presidential hopefuls in Florida, according to a new InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research poll of likely voters in the January 29 GOP Florida primary. Read the entire poll report at http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_1127_50.aspx

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Iowa: Pollster's Worst Nightmare

By Matt Towery, Southern Political Report ~ It's a pollster's worst nightmare. This year's Republican and Democratic Iowa caucuses have been forced to take place so early that not only will the Jan. 3 caucuses conclude the Christmas/New Year's holiday season, but they will also happen on the same day that one of the top Bowl Championship Series college football games airs on national TV. Read Matt's column at http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_1115_37.aspx.

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Religion Looms Large In '08 Presidential Race

By Lee Bandy On The Southern Political Report: "Religion looms large in the 2008 presidential election. It hasn’t played such a prominent role in a U.S. national election since 1960, when Democrat John F. Kennedy became the first Catholic to be elected president. Hardly a day passes when a candidate today isn’t asked a question about his faith. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, a Mormon, who is seeking the Republican nomination, is called upon repeatedly to defend his church and its teachings, some of which are viewed as heresy by Christians." Read the entire article by clicking http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/free/2007/October/10-26-07/Mixing_Religion_And_Politics_In_08102619631.php

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SC Poll: Romney's Religion A Problem

From The Southern Political Report ~ Forty-five percent of likely South Carolina Republican primary voters say they are less likely to vote for Mitt Romney next January because he is a Mormon, according to the latest InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion poll. Read the story here.

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SPR: Dixie Democrats Rolling In Dough

By Hastings Wyman in The Southern Political Report ~ The money numbers for the US House for the third quarter portend a good 2008 for the Democrats, another bad year for the GOP. The ten Southern Democratic members of Congress most vulnerable to a GOP challenge had an average of $813,000 cash on hand as of Sept. 30, according to reports from the Federal Election Commission (FEC). The ten potentially most vulnerable Republicans had an average of $422,000. Read it all.

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Gingrich's Strange Decision: Questions Abound

From The Southern Political Report ~ The Associated Press reported this afternoon that Newt Gingrich’s press secretary, Rick Tyler, officially announced that Gingrich would not seek the presidency in 2008. Tyler explained that research uncovered by the Gingrich organization in the last few days showed that Gingrich could not form an exploratory campaign without resigning as the head of his 527 organization, “American Solutions.”

Gingrich’s former campaign chairman and InsiderAdvantage/Southern Political Report Chairman Matt Towery, who in column after column raised the 527 issue as a potential problem for Gingrich, sheds light on Gingrich’s situation: “As I stated often to the dismay of the supporters of my friend and former candidate, the 527, American Solutions, posed a huge ethical and legal issue for a Gingrich effort for the presidency. I have already been asked if Gingrich was aware of this all along and simply waited until after the launch of American Solutions to make the public of his inability to move forward. My answer is, based on my best experience of the Gingrich organization, no. To have led media to believe that he would begin on Monday, by proxy, a $30 million quest for a mandate to run, knowing full well that such could not take place, would permanently scar Gingrich with the media and his closest supporters, all of whom were led to believe that the exploration announcement was more than legitimate.

“In my estimation, American Solutions and the sudden resurgence of Newt’s interest in the presidency both were occurring so swiftly that this critical element of the law was ignored. This would not be the first time that the Gingrich organization, led by a man who thinks faster than those who try to keep up with him, made statements or set forth plans that were reversed at the last minute. Today’s announcement reminds me a great deal of Newt’s sudden and abrupt decision to leave the House in 1998. One thing is for sure: Gingrich will have to concur with this analysis or he will be viewed in the future by both the media and many of his supporters as having manipulated and misled them.”

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Wyman: Rice, Corn (No Puns Intended) Eye Inhofe

By Hastings Wyman In The Southern Political Report ~ Two Democratic state senators are considering running against US Sen. Jim Inhofe (R), 72, in 2008. State Sen. Andrew Rice (left), 34, is traveling the state before making his decision, but has already said that he has encountered “an outpouring of support” for a race against Inhofe. Another potential candidate is state Sen. Ken Corn (right), 30, who is in his second and final term in the senate. Read Wyman's complete article here.

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SPR Poll Shows Thompson Vaulting Into No. 2 Spot

From Hasting Wyman's Southern Political Report ~ A national telephone survey conducted by InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research for the Southern Political Report shows that the buzz over former Senator Fred Thompson’s entry into the presidential race has vaulted the former senator into second place among likely Republican voters for the Republican nomination.

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