Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Oklahoma's Presidential Vote Draws Attention

Oklahoma's vote in the presidential election continues to draw national interest.
All 77 of the state's counties went for John McCain over Barack Obama, the only state in which Obama lost every county, and the state gave Obama his third-lowest vote percentage.
Those facts, in light of Obama's national victory, have not been lost on others. The New York Times, Southern Political Report and others have reported on it.
Here's an excerpt from The Times' story: “Oklahoma Democrats, with very few exceptions, are the old-line white Southern Democrats,” said David Ray, another political scientist at the university (of Oklahoma). “They don’t like liberals or liberalism.”

Indeed, the state has a political landscape closely resembling that of the old solidly Democratic South, especially in its southeastern corner, known as Little Dixie, where many Southerners settled after the Civil War. When conservatives of the Old South began abandoning the party decades ago, Oklahoma’s Democrats lagged behind the historical trend. Further, the state has relatively small black and Hispanic populations, and so the Democrats did not absorb as many new voters from those groups as in the states of the old Confederacy.

These days Oklahoma Democrats dread running for local office in presidential election years, for fear of being associated with liberal nominees at the top of the ticket.

“Being liberal in Oklahoma, with the exception of a few legislative districts, will not get you elected,” said State Representative Joe Dorman, a conservative Democrat.

Ivan Holmes, chairman of the Oklahoma Democratic Party, said there had been no ballot initiative or outcry on any state or local issue that would explain why conservatives of both parties rejected many Democratic candidates this week.

But, Mr. Holmes said, Mr. Obama was badly hurt in the state by rumors that he was not a Christian, that he sympathized with terrorists and that he would take away people’s firearms, a buzz that could not have helped Democrats down the ticket.

In addition, Senator James M. Inhofe, the Republican incumbent, whipped up anti-liberal sentiment in his successful race against a Democratic challenger, State Senator Andrew Rice, accusing him of being “too liberal for Oklahoma” in opposing a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage and voting against tax cuts.

Another Republican, State Representative Sally Kern, who recently declared that homosexuality was a greater threat to the nation than terrorism, easily won re-election.

But Mr. (Keith) Gaddie said that perhaps the most important factor in Mr. McCain’s strong showing here was religion. An Edison/Mitofsky exit poll found that more than half of Oklahoma voters identified themselves as evangelical Christians and that a heavy majority of them had voted for Mr. McCain.

Mr. Gaddie, himself a pollster as well as a college professor, said: “A question we always ask in our polls is ‘How often do you attend church services?’ If a Democrat is not going to vote for a Democrat, they are a frequent church attender.”

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Monday, July 28, 2008

Primary Turnout Hard To Predict

Voter turnout in Tuesday's primaries is hard to predict, most agree.
Election Board Secretary Mike Clingman says he doesn't know what to expect.
There are no super-hot primaries in either party and while there are several that have been hotly-contested, they haven't risen to the level that's likely to increase turnout.
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

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Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Cole Seeks To 'Nationalize' 2008 Elections

By Aaron Blake/The Hill ~ All politics is officially no longer local at the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).

NRCC Chairman Tom Cole signaled Monday that he is set to nationalize the 2008 battle for the House by tagging the “liberal” label on Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).

Cole’s predecessor, Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-N.Y.), insisted amid a tough national environment for the GOP that House races are all unique to their locales. Just two years later, though, Cole (Okla.) is ready to flip that strategy on its head and emulate what Democrats used to great effect in 2006.

Obama’s and Pelosi’s negatives aren’t as high nationwide as the Democrats’ chief villain figure, President Bush, but Cole said the strategy can work for two reasons: because much of the battleground is GOP-leaning territory, and because Pelosi’s and Obama’s numbers get worse as her name ID climbs and his nomination battle drags on.

“Our candidates are trying to turn those things into, now, referendums on Pelosi and on Obama,” Cole said.

Despite enjoying wide support early and wooing independents, Obama was recently rated the most liberal member of the Senate by the National Journal and has endured some of his toughest weeks on the campaign trail this month.

According to internal NRCC numbers obtained by The Hill, Obama has a 32 percent favorable and 58 percent unfavorable rating in Mississippi’s 1st district, where Republicans nearly lost a special election last week to a Democratic takeover. The race will go to a runoff May 13.

His numbers were better but similar, 37-50, in Louisiana’s 6th district, where a special will be held Saturday.

Pelosi’s numbers in those two districts were 18-39 and 24-47, respectively.

“We like the way that’s unfolding,” Cole said. “We would rather be running national elections.”
Read the entire story at http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/cole-seeks-to-nationalize-election-with-sen.-obama-speaker-pelosi-2008-04-28.html

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Henry Expected To Be Active Campaigner

From The Capitol Bureau/Tulsa World ~ Democrats said Monday that they expect Gov. Brad Henry to play a more active role in this fall's election, with an appearance by the governor set for a House Democratic fundraiser Tuesday. Henry also met Monday with House Democrats, marking the first time he has talked with the caucus this session. But the governor meets weekly with House Democratic leaders, said Rep. Danny Morgan, who leads the minority Democrats. In about a month, a fundraiser will be held in Tulsa for Democratic House candidates. All 101 House seats are up for grabs this fall.

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Monday, November 26, 2007

Fox News: Lott To Resign U. S. Senate Seat

Mississippi Senator Trent Lott, the No. 2 Republican in the Senate, will announce his resignation effective this year, FOX News has learned.

Lott, 66, was re-elected in 2006 amid speculation that he would retire. Instead, against his wife Tricia's wishes, he ran again, regaining a Senate leadership position after being forced from the top Republican seat in 2002, following remarks he made that were seen as racially insensitive.

Lott, who is serving his fourth Senate term, was expected to discuss his plans later Monday.

Lott becomes the sixth Senate Republican this year to announce retirement, possibly posing more difficulties for an embattled GOP that will be trying to retain the presidency and fight further losses to Democrats who regained control of both houses of Congress last November.

Lott's decision to remain in the Senate last year was aimed in part at using his clout to push for repairs to his state's coastal region after the wrath left by the 2005 hurricane season, including hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Lott's own coastal home was destroyed by the storms.
Two senior Republican aides tell FOX News that Lott has informed a small inner circle of colleagues about his plans.

The senator, after 34 years of public service in Congress, is not wealthy like many of his colleagues and has talked for some time about leaving so he could earn more money. So, aides said, the senator decided to leave by year's end to circumvent new lobbying rules — instituted by Congress this year and effective in 2008 — that that would bar members from lobbying their colleagues after two years.

The so-called "revolving door" policy in effect now keeps former members from lobbying their colleagues for one year. The changes were made in the wake of the scandal surrounding former lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour, R, would appoint a replacement for Lott, although it was not immediately clear clear whether an election would be held during the regular general elections next November, or whether there would be a special election before. Whoever wins would serve out the remainder of Lott's term, which ends in 2012.

In his Senate position, Lott is the whip, or vote-counter-in-chief, second in GOP seniority only to Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. The position — to which he was elected by his Republican colleagues — was a sign that Lott had been forgiven for the remarks four years earlier during the 100th birthday celebration for then South Carolina Sen. Strom Thurmond, who ran for president in 1948 on a segregationist platform.

At the event, Lott said Mississippi voters were proud to have supported Thurmond's candidacy, and added: "If the rest of the country had followed our lead, we wouldn't have had all these problems over all these years either."

A few days later, Lott issued a statement saying he had made "a poor choice of words" that "conveyed to some the impression that I embraced the discarded policies of the past. Nothing could be further from the truth, and I apologize to anyone who was offended by my statement."
Lott's many apologies were to no avail. He lost the support of President Bush, who said his comments did not "reflect the spirit of our country."

Lott later wrote in a book — "Herding Cats: A Life in Politics" — that President Bush hurt his feelings by disavowing the comments in a tone that was "devastating ... booming and nasty."

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Thursday, November 15, 2007

Report: U. S. Senate Republicans In Trouble

U. S. Senate Republicans are in trouble, and last week’s Democratic victories in Kentucky and Virginia suggest their challenges may be steeper than even they thought, Politico reports today.
The report comes a day after Republican Kentucky Gov. Ernie Fletcher was tossed out of office, and one of his biggest political patrons launched ads to protect himself from the fallout.

Who was the patron? No less than Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). The off-year elections and a steady drumbeat of negative public opinion polls indicate the poisonous mix of issues and voter discontent that wiped out Republican majorities a year ago isn’t abating. Worse still, the new minority is in a much weaker position to defend itself. Read the the entire column at http://www.politico.com/pitboss/.

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Wednesday, November 14, 2007

2008: Oklahoma GOP Has Huge Cash Advantage

The Oklahoma Republican Party appears poised to enter the 2008 election year with a formidable financial advantage over the Oklahoma Democratic Party.
Ethics Commission filings as of September 30th show the GOP has seven times as much state cash on hand as the Democrats, and enjoyed a 3-to-1 fundraising advantage in the 3-month reporting period. Plus, the GOP's federal fund has $75,000 on hand, dramatically increasing the party's overall financial edge. The party now has about $112,000 in cash on hand in both accounts, compared to the Democratic Party's approximately $26,000 in state and federal accounts.
GOP State Chairman Gary Jones said the party's fundraising is "going great." He said it appears the party will enter the election year in a strong position.
Going into past election years, the party has touched on $100,000 in cash on hand; it appears this election year, the number will be substantially higher.
The September 30th reports show that the Oklahoma Democratic Party raised $15,422 in the period and $68,195 this year. it spent $12,007 in the period and $65,000 this year. It had just $5,846 in cash on hand. In a recent email, Chairman Ivan Holmes told supporters the party is making progress retiring old debt, but still cannot afford a paid staff of its own. The Democratic National Committee has paid staff salaries for a few workers. The party's federal fund, the latest Federal Election Commission report shows, owes $67,360 and has $20,215 in cash on hand.
Jones' report shows the GOP raised almost $47,000 in the period and $132,874 for the year. The party spent $47,732 in the period for a total of $123,000 for the year. It had $37,232 in cash on hand. In addition, the party's federal Leadership Council has $75,000 in cash on hand after raising almost $180,000 this year, it's FEC report as of October 20th shows.

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Wednesday, October 17, 2007

SPR: Dixie Democrats Rolling In Dough

By Hastings Wyman in The Southern Political Report ~ The money numbers for the US House for the third quarter portend a good 2008 for the Democrats, another bad year for the GOP. The ten Southern Democratic members of Congress most vulnerable to a GOP challenge had an average of $813,000 cash on hand as of Sept. 30, according to reports from the Federal Election Commission (FEC). The ten potentially most vulnerable Republicans had an average of $422,000. Read it all.

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