Ron Paul Surges In Iowa, Challenges Gingrich

From The Hill ~ Newt Gingrich’s onetime 9-point lead over the GOP field in Iowa is down to 1 point, and it’s Ron Paul who's breathing down his neck.

Gingrich is at 22 percent, according to a Public Policy Poll released on Tuesday. He’s followed by Paul at 21 percent, Mitt Romney at 16 percent, Michele Bachmann at 11 percent, Rick Perry at 9 percent, Rick Santorum at 8 percent, Jon Huntsman at 5 percent, and Gary Johnson at 1 percent.

Gingrich’s favorability with Tea Party supporters plummeted this week from 35 percent to 24 percent, bringing his overall favorability down from 62 percent favorable versus 31 percent unfavorable, to only 52 percent favorable versus 40 percent unfavorable.

Paul’s favorability numbers meanwhile, were almost the inverse of Gingrich’s. The Texas lawmaker is now at 61 percent favorable versus 31 percent unfavorable, compared to last week when he was at 52 percent favorable and 38 percent unfavorable.

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Gingrich Continues Lead, But....

From The Hill ~ Newt Gingrich has sustained his surprising rise in the polls for more than a month, and a slew of new state polling data has cemented the former House Speaker as the GOP’s leading candidate for the nomination.

Of the four early-voting states, polling shows Gingrich leading in three of them — Iowa, South Carolina and Florida — and gaining ground in New Hampshire.

But the polls also show that a majority of voters are undecided, meaning Gingrich could face the reality that has plagued so many other GOP contenders — what goes up could also come down.

In Iowa, which is first to vote, with its Jan. 3 caucuses, Gingrich leads with 22 percent, according to an American Research Group poll of likely caucus-goers released on Monday.

Mitt Romney and Ron Paul both came in at 17 percent, followed by Rick Perry at 13, Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum at 7 percent and Jon Huntsman at 5 percent.

Only two months ago, Gingrich was an afterthought in the Hawkeye State, at 8 percent.

Still, the race for Iowa is tight, and traditional wisdom says a candidate needs a strong ground game in order to turn out voters. Gingrich just opened a small campaign office in Iowa two weeks ago and has considerably softer support in the state than a candidate like Paul.

In addition, some say a surprise candidate like Perry, Bachmann or Santorum could outperform on caucus day if Iowa voters come out in favor of a candidate they view as a strong Christian conservative.

That voting bloc tends to dominate the caucuses, and propelled former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee to victory in the 2008 contest.

Gingrich also leads in South Carolina and Florida, the third and fourth states to vote, according to a NBC News-Marist poll released Monday.

The former Speaker leads Romney 28 percent to 22 among South Carolina’s likely Republican primary voters, with all other candidates in the single digits.

In Florida, Gingrich has the largest lead among candidates in any state, battering Romney 39 percent to 26, according to the poll.

Gingrich is highly popular with the older voters who make up a large part of the Republican electorate in Florida. And perhaps surprisingly for a candidate who is so closely tied to Washington, Gingrich is buoyed by Tea Party support in South Carolina.

New Hampshire is the only one of the first four early-voting states where Gingrich doesn’t lead. Romney is widely viewed to have an advantage in the Granite State because of its proximity to Massachusetts. The former Massachusetts governor also owns a home in New Hampshire.

But here too Gingrich is closing the gap, within 10 points of Romney, according to a CNN-Time-ORC poll released last week. Gingrich campaigned in New Hampshire on Monday and debated rival Jon Huntsman in Hollis, N.H., on Monday evening.

Gingrich has also opened up a lead nationally, beating Romney 33 percent to 23, according to Gallup’s Daily Tracking poll. Gingrich has maintained a double-digit lead in the poll since Dec. 1.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the rest of the Republican field views Gingrich as the front-runner as well. The candidates went after the former Speaker hard at Saturday night’s debate in Des Moines, criticizing him for being a career politician and for his multiple marriages.

However, in a Republican nomination process that has seen Perry, Bachmann, Cain and Donald Trump all spend time at the top of the polls, a lot could change.

According to the CNN-Time-ORC poll, 55 percent of voters in Iowa and South Carolina said they were open to changing their minds, while 53 percent of Florida voters and 48 percent of New Hampshire voters said the same.

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Gallup: Gingrich Widens Lead Over Romney

Newt Gingrich widened his lead over Mitt Romney to 14 points in the first Gallup daily national poll to completely exclude ex-rival Herman Cain.

The poll, which took a five-day rolling average of registered Republicans between December 4th and December 8th, shows Gingrich in the lead at 37 percent, followed by Romney at 23 percent.

In the previous poll, which automatically assigned Cain’s votes to his supporters’ second choice, Gingrich took 34 percent compared to Romney’s 25 percent.

This seems to back up the findings of a number of polls taken while Cain was still in the race, which said Cain supporters preferred Gingrich as their second choice.

Cain suspended his campaign last Saturday, saying that allegations of sexual harassment and infidelity against him were hurting his family.

All of the other candidates remained relatively flat.

Ron Paul took 9 percent, Rick Perry 6 percent, Michele Bachmann 6 percent, Rick Santorum 2 percent, and Jon Hunstman 1 percent.
It’s the latest poll to show Gingrich either neck and neck or ahead of Romney for the Republican presidential nomination.

The Gingrich surge has sustained its momentum despite the other GOP candidates, most notably Paul, having turned their sights on the former House Speaker, as well as a number of Gingrich’s former colleagues who have come out to blast him in the press.

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Gingrich Has Lead In Three Early-Vote States

Newt Gingrich holds double-digit leads over the rest of the Republican presidential field in Iowa, South Carolina and Florida – three of the first four states that will vote in primaries or caucuses this January, according to a CNN-Time-ORC poll released on Wednesday.

In Iowa, Gingrich leads Mitt Romney 33 percent to 20 percent, in South Carolina he leads Romney 43 percent to 20 percent, and Gingrich performs best in Florida, where he leads Romney 48 percent to 25 percent.

Romney still leads the field in New Hampshire, where some say his time as governor of neighboring Massachusetts gives him a significant home-field advantage, although Gingrich is closing in there too. Romney leads Gingrich 35 percent to 26 percent in the Granite State.

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Ron Paul Nails Gingrich In New Ad

http://youtu.be/1Jzi3HBCS2M

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Ron Paul Wins Oklahoma GOP Straw Poll

Texas Congressman Ron Paul won the Oklahoma Republican Party's online straw poll in impressive fashion with 46 percent of the votes cast.

The results:
Ron Paul - 46%
Herman Cain - 25%
Newt Gingrich - 17%
Mitt Romney - 6%
Rick Perry - 3%
Michele Bachmann - 2%
Rick Santorum - 1%
Gary Johnson - less than 1%

Voting in the poll was limited to those donating $5 to the state party.

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Ron Paul On The Rise In Iowa; He's No. 2

From The Des Moines Register ~ With the dizzying fall of Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich has stepped into the breach and now stands alone as the most popular GOP presidential candidate in The Des Moines Register’s new Iowa Poll.

Gingrich, with support of 25 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers, is seven points ahead of the rising Ron Paul, who’s at 18 percent. Mitt Romney drops to third, at 16 percent, denting his previously armor-plated Iowa polling average. Romney’s support stood at 22 percent last month.

Cain, who suspended his campaign Saturday, had plunged from 23 percent to 8 percent in just over a month, tied with Michele Bachmann.

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Gingrich's Strange Decision: Questions Abound

From The Southern Political Report ~ The Associated Press reported this afternoon that Newt Gingrich’s press secretary, Rick Tyler, officially announced that Gingrich would not seek the presidency in 2008. Tyler explained that research uncovered by the Gingrich organization in the last few days showed that Gingrich could not form an exploratory campaign without resigning as the head of his 527 organization, “American Solutions.”

Gingrich’s former campaign chairman and InsiderAdvantage/Southern Political Report Chairman Matt Towery, who in column after column raised the 527 issue as a potential problem for Gingrich, sheds light on Gingrich’s situation: “As I stated often to the dismay of the supporters of my friend and former candidate, the 527, American Solutions, posed a huge ethical and legal issue for a Gingrich effort for the presidency. I have already been asked if Gingrich was aware of this all along and simply waited until after the launch of American Solutions to make the public of his inability to move forward. My answer is, based on my best experience of the Gingrich organization, no. To have led media to believe that he would begin on Monday, by proxy, a $30 million quest for a mandate to run, knowing full well that such could not take place, would permanently scar Gingrich with the media and his closest supporters, all of whom were led to believe that the exploration announcement was more than legitimate.

“In my estimation, American Solutions and the sudden resurgence of Newt’s interest in the presidency both were occurring so swiftly that this critical element of the law was ignored. This would not be the first time that the Gingrich organization, led by a man who thinks faster than those who try to keep up with him, made statements or set forth plans that were reversed at the last minute. Today’s announcement reminds me a great deal of Newt’s sudden and abrupt decision to leave the House in 1998. One thing is for sure: Gingrich will have to concur with this analysis or he will be viewed in the future by both the media and many of his supporters as having manipulated and misled them.”

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Gingrich Says He Won't Run

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) decided Saturday morning not to run for president just as his staff was preparing to launch a website to seek $30 million in pledges, his spokesman told Politico. (www.politico.com)

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Gingrich Says Hillary 'Most Effective' Candidate

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.), the leader of the 1994 Republican revolution, says that top Democratic White House candidate Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) is the most “effective” candidate of the 2008 presidential race.

In a discussion with blogger Ed Morrissey on BlogTalk Radio, Gingrich flirted more with his own potential bid by throwing some significant criticisms at his own party’s candidates. He repeatedly offering backhanded but seemingly sincere compliments to Clinton and indirect but brutal shots at his own party's candidates. ~ From reports.

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Gingrich Says Thompson Could Keep Him Out

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said that a White House bid by fellow Southerner Fred Thompson would make him less likely to join the race. "If Fred Thompson runs and he does well, then I think that makes it easier for me to not run," Gingrich said in a telephone interview with The Associated Press. "On the other hand, just given what you've seen with (John) McCain the last few months, how can you predict?"

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Fred Thompson Surges In California

Fred Thompson leaps into 2nd Place Tie with John McCain, 7 Points Behind Rudy Giuliani, in a new California poll: Eight months to the newly-accelerated and suddenly critical California Republican Primary, the contest destabilizes and further tightens, according to a SurveyUSA poll of likely GOP Primary voters, conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, and KGTV-TV San Diego.

Rudolph Giuliani leads today, but by 7 points, down from a 13-point lead 4 weeks ago, on 5/7/07, and down from a 19-point lead 8 weeks ago, on 4/2/07. Fred Thompson has doubled his support in the past month, from 11% on 5/7/07 to 21% today. That puts Thompson into a 2nd-place tie with McCain, whose support is flat month on month, 21% then, 21% now. Mitt Romney runs 4th today, at 11%, largely unchanged from 12% last month. Undeclared candidate Newt Gingrich is 5th, at 8%.

Among conservatives, Thompson is up 12 points month-on month, and has gone from 4th place to 1st. There is volatility among Hispanics, who make up 17% of likely Republican Primary voters in SurveyUSA's turnout model: Giuliani has lost 23 points month-on-month, down from 46% to today 23%. Thompson's support among Hispanics is up 5 fold, from 5% to 24%.

Hat tip to John R. Angier II

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Gingrich: Why Announce Now?

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said Monday in Oklahoma City he is still eyeing a run for president and can't explain polls that show him ranked near the top-tier candidates for the Republican nomination although he has not formally announced.

"It's sort of frightening sometimes," Gingrich said. "Sometimes the guys who aren't running are doing better than the guys who are running. Why would you want to start running if you're doing better by not running than you would if you were running? I can't explain it."

Polls in some states show Gingrich, speaker from 1995 to 1999, running behind former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, but ahead of U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas and Fred Thompson, an actor and former U.S. senator from Tennessee.

Gingrich said the 2006 elections in which the GOP lost both houses of Congress are a sign of disappointment among Republicans, and that his relatively high poll numbers may indicate that many people remember the 1994 Contract for America that he co-authored and his highly publicized spats with former President Bill Clinton over cutting taxes and balancing the federal budget.

Gingrich, 63, said he will not decide whether to enter the race until October following a nationwide Solutions Day workshop on Sept. 27 - the anniversary of the Contract for America.

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Gingrich To Visit Oklahoma City

Former U. S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich will visit Oklahoma City next week to speak at a dinner forum on improving health care. Gingrich's speech will help kick off the Oklahoma Executive Roundtable on Monday night at the Skirvin Hotel. The event is a gathering of corporate, government, academic and nonprofit leaders. Gingrich has founded a center in Washington to seek intelligent ways to improve America's health system. It's called the Center for Health Transformation. He's considered a possible Republican candidate for president next year.

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Thompson Easily Wins GOP Convention Poll

Fred Thompson isn't even a candidate for the Republican nomination for president, but he easily won the weekend's straw poll at the Republican State Convention.

Thompson got 37.5 percent compared to 15.2 for another not-yet-announced possible, Newt Gingrich. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who has announced, got only 9.4 percent. Other candidates had lesser percentages.

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Gingrich Wins Presidential Straw Poll

Republican Newt Gingrich beat Democrat Bill Richardson, 54-39 percent, in The McCarville Report Online's 2008 presidential straw poll. Gingrich won TMRO's Republican straw poll and Richardson won the Democratic straw poll. Gingrich, former speaker of the U. S. House, is not a declared candidate. Richardson, governor of New Mexico, has launched an exploratory campaign and is expected in Oklahoma later this month as he tests the waters.

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Former Gingrich Assistant Wants Draft

A former press assistant to Newt Gingrich, David Kralik, has started a "Draft Newt For President" movement.

Gingrich says he won't decide whether to run for president until September. A former campaign manager for Gingrich says he fully expects Gingrich to enter the race next year.

"America is ready for his leadership again," said Kralik. "He's the only conservative."

Kralik has created a Web site, www.draftnewt.org, that will serve as the headquarters of what he calls a grass-roots effort to increase the Georgia Republican's profile with primary voters. He says funds raised on the site will be used to buy TV and radio ads promoting Gingrich.

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Gingrich Will Run, Former Chairman Says

Former U. S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich will get into the 2008 presidential race, but not until late next year, his former campaign chairman believes.

Matt Towery's comments are included in a piece on Hasting Wyman's Southern Political Report by Online Editor Tim Darnell.

Towery, now CEO of InsiderAdvantage (parent of SPR) and former campaign chair for the ex-congressman from Georgia, says to expect a Newt For President campaign just before the Republican National Convention in September '08.

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