
Political insiders and observers are unanimous in their assessment of Tuesday's Republican primary for Oklahoma County commissioner: Incumbent Brent Rinehart is history.
That harsh assessment of the controversial Rinehart's chances of winning renomination comes from all of those
The McCarville Report Online asked about the race and that includes consultants, county officials, county politics-watchers and political insiders.
Has Media Barrage Boosted Johnston?

A recent
TvPoll for
KWTV-Channel 9 found Rinehart running second behind challenger Brian Maughan (left) and slightly ahead of challenger J. D. Johnston. That poll, however, concluded before a Johnston media barrage, funded in large part by Johnston's own money, that almost all agree has boosted him in the race. The poll put Maughan at about 35 percent, Rinehart at about 20 percent and Johnston at about 18 percent.
"This is a classic," one observer said. "You've got an incumbent in trouble. You've got a grass-roots, door-knocking guy in Maughan and you've got a top-down candidate in Johnston, who is dominating in the paid media."
'He's toast.'
Said another: "Whatever Rinehart had in the way of support a month ago, he's got today. It probably hasn't shrunk, but it sure hasn't grown. He's toast."
Rinehart's Problems
Reflective of Rinehart's difficulties this time around is the amount he's been able to raise to fund his reelection bid: Just $28,000, compared to the $216,000 he raised in 2004. Rinehart says the investigation into his 2004 campaign donations scared off donors this time around. Rinehart still faces criminal charges as a result of that investigation, which he has blamed on political enemies in both parties. He faces trial in September on felony campaign corruption charges. He also faces an Internal Revenue Service examination of his personal and business tax returns for 2003, 2004 and 2005.
Ground Game vs. Advertising Barrage
Those in the know say Maughan has worn out his shoes knocking doors in the commission district and supplemented that effort with what most describe as effective direct mail pieces. Thus far, he's had no advertising that's been visible.

Johnston, however, has relied on advertising and done little door-to-door contact. Sources say the former Bethany mayor made a decision to restrict his time away from home since his wife suffers from cancer. One supporter said that while he admires Johnston's support of his wife, his failure to "personalize" his campaign with direct voter contact weakens his candidacy.
Rinehart, most say, has done little campaigning and there's been no advertising thus far. "He doesn't have the money" for advertising, said one observer. Rinehart has placed signs in the district, but he's been matched by Johnston and Maughan, so there seems little advantage for him there.
One of those familiar with the campaigns of all three candidates says he sees Tuesday's result as "Brian and J. D. in the high thirties and Rinehart in the twenties" in the vote totals. That outcome would result in a Johnston-Maughan runoff as Democrat Jim Dickinson, Harrah construction firm owner, waits for the GOP to pick its nominee. Dickinson is expected to best opponents Bob Boyster and Charles Saunders.
Labels: Brent Rinehart, Brian Maughan, J. D. Johnston