Oklahoma Poll: Inhofe Heads To Blowout Win, Shreds Andrew Rice In Rural Oklahoma

From The Tulsa World ~ Republican U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe headed into the final week before Tuesday's election with a comfortable margin despite declining support in the state's two metropolitan areas, according to the most recent Oklahoma Poll.

Conducted Oct. 24-26 by SoonerPoll.com of Oklahoma City, the survey of 357 likely voters gave Inhofe 52 percent, which was almost identical to his share of the vote in July.

Democratic challenger Andrew Rice was at 37 percent, up from 30 percent in July, and independent Stephen Wallace stood at 4 percent. Seven percent were undecided.

"Inhofe has a 15-point lead, Wallace doesn't seem to have done much damage to anyone, and the 7 percent undecided are not going to make much of a difference as far as I can tell," said poll analyst Al Soltow, vice president of research at the University of Tulsa.

For Inhofe, the road to a third full term appears relatively clear. He's the choice of nearly three-quarters of conservatives and more than three-quarters of Republicans. He even has the support of roughly one-third of Democrats, allowing him to overcome that party's 225,000 advantage in registered voters statewide.

"I think (Inhofe) has lots of morals," said self-described conservative Nancy Hicks of Vinita. Hicks said she didn't know much about Rice, but that "if he's running against Inhofe, there must be something wrong."

In fact, most people interviewed said they knew little about the state senator from Oklahoma City except for his and Inhofe's television advertising.

Nevertheless, Rice has been able to eat into Inhofe's support in the metropolitan areas. The Tulsa MSA actually gave Rice a slight advantage 47 percent to 44 percent while in Oklahoma City, Inhofe's margin was less than seven percentage points. In July, Inhofe led Rice by 31 points in Tulsa and 12 in Oklahoma City. Inhofe continues piling up huge leads in Oklahoma's rural areas, however, where he has a 36-point margin.

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Oklahoma Poll: Obama Gains In Tulsa

From The Tulsa World ~ Republican presidential nominee John McCain continues to enjoy a wide lead in Oklahoma despite substantial gains by Democrat Barack Obama in the Tulsa metropolitan area, the latest Oklahoma Poll has found.

In a survey of 357 likely voters statewide, conducted for the Tulsa World and KOTV, Channel 6, by SoonerPoll.com of Oklahoma City, 57 percent said they intend to vote for McCain, with 33 percent favoring Obama and 10 percent undecided.

Obama has closed to within eight points of McCain in the seven-county Tulsa metropolitan statistical area after trailing there 60-22 in July and is 15 points down in metro Oklahoma City. In the rest of the state, though, McCain leads almost three-to-one.

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SPR Notes McCain Oklahoma Lead Over Obama

By Hastings Wyman/Southern Political Report ~ The McCain-Obama race may be close nationwide, but in the Sooner State it’s about as lop-sided as you can get.

The latest Oklahoma Poll, taken July 19-23 for the Tulsa World, showed John McCain with a 56% to 24% lead over Barack Obama, an extraordinarily high 32-point lead.

Of course, Oklahoma is a Red State.

In 2004, Bush beat Kerry 66% to 34%, also a 32-point gap, which McCain could widen if the 20% undecideds break his way.

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Inhofe 52%, Rice 30% In New Poll

By Randy Krehbiel/Tulsa World ~ Incumbent U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe continues to hold a substantial lead over Democratic challenger Andrew Rice, according to the latest Oklahoma Poll.

Fifty-two percent of the 750 likely voters surveyed said they intend to vote for Inhofe, who is seeking his third full term. Rice polled at 30 percent, with 18 percent undecided. The result was actually an improvement for Rice. In December, the last time the survey included an Inhofe-Rice matchup, the gap was 60-19.

"You are seeing some movement, but it seems unlikely to be enough to change the outcome," said poll consultant Al Soltow.

Oddly, Inhofe's share of the vote went down over the past seven months, while his approval rating went up 7 percentage points, from 54 percent to 61 percent. Almost half of the Democrats surveyed gave Inhofe a positive performance rating.

Rice led 46-35 among Democrats, but Inhofe won Republicans by a margin of more than 8-to-1 and also had a slight edge among independents. Inhofe led 3-to-1 among evangelical Christians but was no better than even with nonevangelicals. Support for Inhofe increased with household income.

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What's Obama's Down-Ticket Impact?

Given Barack Obama's poor showing in the Oklahoma Poll released today by the Tulsa World, the question arises, "If he continues to do as poorly as this poll shows, what are the down-ticket implications for Senate candidate Andrew Rice and Corporation Commissioner Jim Roth and for Democrats seeking legislative seats?"

The McCarville Report Online posed that question to political historian, pundit, pollster and professor of political science Keith Gaddie, who offers these thoughts:

"The Democratic nominee for president always faces an uphill fight for election, and the hill is especially steep for Barack Obama. His current numbers have him running about six points behind where John Kerry was at this time in 2008. Were these numbers to hold up, it would be the worst perrformance by a Democratic presidential nominee in Oklahoma since George McGovern got 24% of the vote in 1972.

"Any Democratic presidential candidate is a drag on Democratic prospects. In the past, state Democrats have counted on distancing themselves from locally unpopular national candidates. A candidate running toward Barack Obama faces more difficulty in converting the swing voters needed to win a majority.

"While Republicans would like to think that every Democratic candidate will live in mortal fear of the top of the ticket, for incumbents down-ticket and candidates with strong ties to business, Obama is not yet a significant problem. But let's keep watching."

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Oklahoma Poll: McCain Tops Obama By 32%

By Randy Krehbiel/Tulsa World ~ Oklahomans may not be excited about this year's presidential campaign, but most of them know who they're going to vote for.

And it's not Barack Obama.

The latest Oklahoma Poll, a statewide survey of 750 likely voters conducted July 19-23, found little support — and some outright hostility — for the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.

Republican John McCain, meanwhile, attracted broad, if sometimes tepid, support to lead Obama by 32 percentage points, 56 percent to 24 percent. Seventy-one percent said they are firm in their decisions.

"Oklahomans have their minds made up and they aren't going to change come hell or high water, no matter what," said poll consultant Al Soltow, vice president for research at the University of Tulsa.

Read the entire story at http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/article.aspx?articleID=20080803_16_A1_spancl643304.

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Oklahoma Poll: Clinton Rises, McCain Surges

Hillary Rodham Clinton improved her position among Oklahoma's Democratic voters during the past month, while the Republican side of the presidential primary race remained volatile, the latest Oklahoma Poll indicates.

The survey of 757 likely Oklahoma voters, conducted Jan. 27-30 by SoonerPoll.com for the Tulsa World and KOTV, Channel 6, also found that the economy is now the foremost issue among Oklahoma voters as they head to the polls.

While Clinton widened her lead heading into the state's Tuesday primary, U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona jumped ahead in the GOP race after trailing former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee by double digits just four weeks earlier.

McCain was the choice of 40 percent of Republicans surveyed, up from less than 17 percent in December. Huckabee, meanwhile, dropped from 29 percent in December to 19 percent in the most recent poll.

"What's significant to me is the meteoric rise of John McCain and meteoric disaster of Rudy Giuliani," said poll consultant Al Soltow, University of Tulsa vice president for research. "McCain was at 23.2 in April, at 17 percent a month ago, and now he's at 40."

Giuliani, who led all Republicans by a wide margin in April, dropped to 12 percent in December and 5 percent in the most recent poll. The former New York City mayor dropped out on the last day of polling.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was at 17 percent, up from 9 percent in December, while U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, the fourth remaining active candidate, was unchanged at 3 percent.

"I don't think anybody is enamored of the choices we have," said Republican Geraldine Voorhees of Broken Arrow. "The reason Obama and Clinton have done so well is that Republicans have such poor choices."

McCain was significantly weaker in the Tulsa metropolitan area than in Oklahoma City and the rest of the state, drawing just 29 percent here compared to the mid-40s everywhere else. Huckabee was at 26 percent in Tulsa, about his December level, while Romney jumped from 11 to 22 percent. For Huckabee, a Baptist preacher, the bad news was that even evangelical Christians were more likely to support McCain. Only the most ardently religious -- those who attend services several times a week -- favored Huckabee.

Still, Huckabee's background and populist message have some enthusiastic followers. "He seems to make more sense than the rest of them," said Charles Schmitt of Tulsa. "He seems to speak more on my level. I like the fact he's Southern Baptist. I'm a Southern Baptist."

Tamra Johnson of Pryor said she is socially conservative like Huckabee and has received good reports about him from family members in Arkansas. "He doesn't stutter over what he says. He seems to be more honest," Johnson said.

McCain supporters emphasized his experience, both in the military and as a long-term member of Congress. Besides the four active candidates, California U.S. Rep. Duncan Hunter, Colorado U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo, former Tennessee U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson, Jerry Curry, Daniel Gilbert and Alan Keyes will be on Oklahoma's GOP ballot on Tuesday.

Among Democrats, the percentage planning to vote for Clinton increased from 34 to 41 percent. Former North Carolina U.S. Sen. John Edwards, who suspended his campaign on the last day of polling, remained steady in the mid-20s, while U.S. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois improved slightly, to 17 percent from just under 15. Sixteen percent statewide still were undecided.

"It appears that Clinton will be the winner in the Oklahoma primary," Soltow said. "What happens to Obama is largely dependent on where Edwards' votes go.

"Regardless of where they go, it doesn't change the likely outcome. The only thing it will do is determine who picks up the most delegates."

At least one of those Edwards supporters said he probably will stay home on Tuesday. "I think I may save my vote until the general election," said Sam Henry of Bixby. "The Democrats aren't going to have anyone I want to vote for." Henry said McCain now is his first choice.

The decision between Clinton and Obama seems to be a matter of weighing Clinton's experience against Obama's charisma. "I'm not worried about experience," said Jim Sewell of Tulsa. "Look what experience got us with (Dick) Cheney and (Donald) Rumsfeld. I just think Obama's a sharp guy. If he's elected -- and I don't think he will make it -- his image alone would change the world's opinion of us."

Sandra Berenson sees it differently. "To not look at someone's resume is unthinkable," the Broken Arrow woman said. "Not that Mr. Obama isn't a wonderful person, but he just hasn't been around long enough."

Clinton's support was uniform statewide, but Obama polled 10 percentage points better in Oklahoma City than in Tulsa or the nonmetropolitan areas.

Clinton, Edwards and Obama, along with Connecticut U.S. Sen. Chris Dodd, Ohio U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Jim Rogers will be on the Democratic ballot.

Asked to name the issue that mattered the most in their decision about a presidential candidate, 22 percent said the economy, up from less than 11 percent just one month ago. The war in Iraq, named by one-third of the respondents in an April Oklahoma Poll and by 22 percent in December, came in second at 19 percent.

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Clinton, Huckabee Oklahoma Favorites, Poll Finds

Frontrunners for Oklahoma's February 5 presidential primary may not be the best choices for carrying the state in November's general election, the latest Oklahoma Poll suggests.

U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton of New York was the first choice of Democrats surveyed and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee led Republicans. But Republican U.S. Senator John McCain was the only candidate from either party viewed favorably by a majority of all those surveyed and was the only GOP candidate to decisively defeat the top three Democratic candidates in head-to-head matchups.

Among Democrats polled, former North Carolina U.S. Senator John Edwards came in a distant second to Clinton but he had the highest favorable rating among all voters, 44 percent. Edwards won head-to-head matchups with Republicans Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, and he came within 3 percentage points of Huckabee.

Conducted Dec. 16-19 by Sooner Poll.com for the Tulsa World and KOTV, Channel 6, the poll surveyed 745 likely voters.

Read the World's article at http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/article.aspx?articleID=071226_1_A1_hButC86400.

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New Poll: 60% Own Guns, Most Oppose Control

Oklahomans are about twice as likely to own guns as their fellow Americans, according to the most recent Oklahoma Poll, and they're not too keen on further regulation of them, either.

The poll was taken by, and reported in, the Tulsa World.

"I'm not for much of any restrictions, except on fully automatic weapons, and that's already there," said Sally Kimsey, a rancher near Wardville in southeastern Oklahoma.

Almost 60 percent of the 752 likely voters surveyed by SoonerPoll.com on April 27-30 said they own guns. That compares to the 32 percent nationally, according to an AP/Ipsos National Public Affairs poll conducted one week earlier.

Fifty-four percent of Oklahoma Poll respondents said they do not believe the U.S. needs stricter gun laws in view of the 33 shooting deaths at Virginia Tech University last month.

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Oklahoma Poll Measures War Support

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Oklahoma Poll Abortion Question Results

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Henry Love Fest Continues: 83% Approval!

The Tulsa World reports today that Governor Brad Henry's popularity continues to grow, while the approval ratings of Oklahoma's U.S. senators remain stable and President Bush continues to slide. That's based on the latest Oklahoma Poll.

Henry checked in with his highest approval rating yet, 83 percent, in the survey of 752 likely voters conducted Jan. 19-21 by SoonerPoll.com for the Tulsa World and KOTV-Channel 6.
U.S. Senators Jim Inhofe and Tom Coburn were both at 56 percent, a slight increase for each from the last Oklahoma Poll in October.

President Bush's popularity continues to slide. The poll found that 47 percent said they approve of the job Bush has done as president, with an identical share saying they disapproved. Six percent were undecided.

Bush's approval rating was 52 percent in October and 59 percent in January 2006.

"The bottom line is, he continues to slide," said poll consultant Al Soltow, University of Tulsa vice president for research. "He peaked at 89 percent at the end of 2001, was at 77 percent in (early) 2003, and it's been a steady decline since then."

Despite the drop, Bush remains more popular in Oklahoma than just about anywhere else in the country. A Gallup Poll conducted the week before the Oklahoma Poll put Bush's approval rating at 35 percent nationwide.

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