What's Obama's Down-Ticket Impact?
Given Barack Obama's poor showing in the Oklahoma Poll released today by the Tulsa World, the question arises, "If he continues to do as poorly as this poll shows, what are the down-ticket implications for Senate candidate Andrew Rice and Corporation Commissioner Jim Roth and for Democrats seeking legislative seats?"
The McCarville Report Online posed that question to political historian, pundit, pollster and professor of political science Keith Gaddie, who offers these thoughts:
"The Democratic nominee for president always faces an uphill fight for election, and the hill is especially steep for Barack Obama. His current numbers have him running about six points behind where John Kerry was at this time in 2008. Were these numbers to hold up, it would be the worst perrformance by a Democratic presidential nominee in Oklahoma since George McGovern got 24% of the vote in 1972.
"Any Democratic presidential candidate is a drag on Democratic prospects. In the past, state Democrats have counted on distancing themselves from locally unpopular national candidates. A candidate running toward Barack Obama faces more difficulty in converting the swing voters needed to win a majority.
"While Republicans would like to think that every Democratic candidate will live in mortal fear of the top of the ticket, for incumbents down-ticket and candidates with strong ties to business, Obama is not yet a significant problem. But let's keep watching."
The McCarville Report Online posed that question to political historian, pundit, pollster and professor of political science Keith Gaddie, who offers these thoughts:
"The Democratic nominee for president always faces an uphill fight for election, and the hill is especially steep for Barack Obama. His current numbers have him running about six points behind where John Kerry was at this time in 2008. Were these numbers to hold up, it would be the worst perrformance by a Democratic presidential nominee in Oklahoma since George McGovern got 24% of the vote in 1972.
"Any Democratic presidential candidate is a drag on Democratic prospects. In the past, state Democrats have counted on distancing themselves from locally unpopular national candidates. A candidate running toward Barack Obama faces more difficulty in converting the swing voters needed to win a majority.
"While Republicans would like to think that every Democratic candidate will live in mortal fear of the top of the ticket, for incumbents down-ticket and candidates with strong ties to business, Obama is not yet a significant problem. But let's keep watching."
Labels: 2008 Presidential Race, Barack Obama, John McCain, Keith Gaddie, Oklahoma Poll
posted by Mike McCarville @ 11:11 AM
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