Alarm Bells Ringing For Congressional Democrats

From Politico ~ On the heels of predicting that House Democrats could lose 20 or more seats in next year’s midterm elections, the Cook Political Report is continuing to ring the alarm bells for the majority party.

“No question, August proved cathartic for voters and chaotic for congressional Democrats. But way before the town hall meetings during recess, there were ample signs for Democrats to fear for their careers in 2010,” wrote Cook Political Report House analyst David Wasserman.

“Even if Obama and Democrats are just as popular next November as they were last November, they might stand to lose five to ten seats in the House based on the altered composition of the midterm electorate alone. The latest public opinion diagnostics, however, point to a dangerous slide. As voters' views of Obama and Democrats' handling of health care has dimmed, their inclination to elect Democrats to Congress has waned.”

Wasserman noted that 2010 could shape up to be the election of “angry white seniors” who are the least supportive of President Obama’s domestic agenda and are poised to turn out in large numbers to the polls to express their displeasure next year.

For any Democrat representing a swing district filled with seniors – think Reps. John Adler (D-N.J.), Jason Altmire (D-Pa.) or Kathy Dahlkemper (D-Pa.), to name a few – the downturn could be especially worrisome.

But as Wasserman noted in an interview with POLITICO this week, red-district Democrats who are able to effectively distance themselves from the administration are the ones most likely to survive a down year.

“It goes to show that voting behavior in Congress matters at the end of the day.” Wasserman said. “Right now, we’re looking at a wave cycle, but the question is will it be a small wave or a major wave. And it matters how these freshman and sophomore members vote to determine how big a wave it will be.”

Share |

Survey: Obama A Nightmare For State Democrats

A new Sooner Survey paints a bleak picture for Oklahoma Democrats in the 2010 election year.

President Barrack Obama, pollster Pat McFerron (pictured) writes, "will undoubtedly be a tremendous anchor on Democrat chances in Oklahoma in 2010. Among registered Democrats who say they are a conservative (56% of all Democrats), Obama performs terribly (36% favorable vs. 55% unfavorable; 47% strongly unfavorable).

"Of more interest than the overall numbers, however, may be how this issue plays in Democrat primaries. The Democrat primary electorate is much different than the overall electorate. In fact, among Democrats who have voted in at least half of the six most recent statewide primary elections, they have a favorable impression of the President (54% favorable vs. 38% unfavorable). In addition, they are slightly supportive of the President’s healthcare plan (43% favor vs. 39% oppose). Similarly, those Democrats who adopt the label of either moderate or liberal (44% of the state’s registered Democrats), 49% support the President’s proposal while only 32% oppose it. Clearly, the support for Obama among Democrat primary voters will put those campaigning to win their party’s nomination in a tough position. To win a general election in this environment, they will be encouraged to distance themselves from their President; however, to win the nomination, being close to him could be seen as a positive, and any candidate with a serious primary challenge cannot be seen as being opposed to the President.

"Obama will create a very fine line to walk for the major contenders for the Democrat gubernatorial election. For example, those who have a strongly favorable impression of Drew Edmondson are split in their opinion of the President (45% favorable vs. 44% unfavorable). The same can be said for those with a strongly favorable impression of Jari Askins (Obama: 49% favorable vs. 45% unfavorable). In addition, Obama is so disliked by Republicans (14% favorable vs. 75% unfavorable; 67% strongly unfavorable) that he will serve to unite all Republicans come November 2010.

"Clearly, as much as state Democrats will ultimately try to distance themselves from a very unpopular President, Republicans will do everything they can to make certain he is the issue in 2010," McFerron writes.

Overall, the Sooner Survey found Obama less popular than he was in the 2008 presidential election. Obama's total favorable rating is only 31 percent; that's 18 percent strongly favorable and 13 percent somewhat favorable. His unfavorable rating is 56 percent; that's 48 percent strongly unfavorable and 8 percent somewhat unfavorable. Only 11 percent had no opinion. One percent said they'd never heard of him.

The Sooner Survey is considered to be a Republican research firm; its polls, however, have proven remarkably accurate.

Share |