Alarm Bells Ringing For Congressional Democrats
From Politico ~ On the heels of predicting that House Democrats could lose 20 or more seats in next year’s midterm elections, the Cook Political Report is continuing to ring the alarm bells for the majority party.
“No question, August proved cathartic for voters and chaotic for congressional Democrats. But way before the town hall meetings during recess, there were ample signs for Democrats to fear for their careers in 2010,” wrote Cook Political Report House analyst David Wasserman.
“Even if Obama and Democrats are just as popular next November as they were last November, they might stand to lose five to ten seats in the House based on the altered composition of the midterm electorate alone. The latest public opinion diagnostics, however, point to a dangerous slide. As voters' views of Obama and Democrats' handling of health care has dimmed, their inclination to elect Democrats to Congress has waned.”
Wasserman noted that 2010 could shape up to be the election of “angry white seniors” who are the least supportive of President Obama’s domestic agenda and are poised to turn out in large numbers to the polls to express their displeasure next year.
For any Democrat representing a swing district filled with seniors – think Reps. John Adler (D-N.J.), Jason Altmire (D-Pa.) or Kathy Dahlkemper (D-Pa.), to name a few – the downturn could be especially worrisome.
But as Wasserman noted in an interview with POLITICO this week, red-district Democrats who are able to effectively distance themselves from the administration are the ones most likely to survive a down year.
“It goes to show that voting behavior in Congress matters at the end of the day.” Wasserman said. “Right now, we’re looking at a wave cycle, but the question is will it be a small wave or a major wave. And it matters how these freshman and sophomore members vote to determine how big a wave it will be.”
“No question, August proved cathartic for voters and chaotic for congressional Democrats. But way before the town hall meetings during recess, there were ample signs for Democrats to fear for their careers in 2010,” wrote Cook Political Report House analyst David Wasserman.
“Even if Obama and Democrats are just as popular next November as they were last November, they might stand to lose five to ten seats in the House based on the altered composition of the midterm electorate alone. The latest public opinion diagnostics, however, point to a dangerous slide. As voters' views of Obama and Democrats' handling of health care has dimmed, their inclination to elect Democrats to Congress has waned.”
Wasserman noted that 2010 could shape up to be the election of “angry white seniors” who are the least supportive of President Obama’s domestic agenda and are poised to turn out in large numbers to the polls to express their displeasure next year.
For any Democrat representing a swing district filled with seniors – think Reps. John Adler (D-N.J.), Jason Altmire (D-Pa.) or Kathy Dahlkemper (D-Pa.), to name a few – the downturn could be especially worrisome.
But as Wasserman noted in an interview with POLITICO this week, red-district Democrats who are able to effectively distance themselves from the administration are the ones most likely to survive a down year.
“It goes to show that voting behavior in Congress matters at the end of the day.” Wasserman said. “Right now, we’re looking at a wave cycle, but the question is will it be a small wave or a major wave. And it matters how these freshman and sophomore members vote to determine how big a wave it will be.”
Labels: 2010 Election Year
posted by Mike McCarville @ 8:10 AM
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