Survey: Obama A Nightmare For State Democrats
A new Sooner Survey paints a bleak picture for Oklahoma Democrats in the 2010 election year.
President Barrack Obama, pollster Pat McFerron (pictured) writes, "will undoubtedly be a tremendous anchor on Democrat chances in Oklahoma in 2010. Among registered Democrats who say they are a conservative (56% of all Democrats), Obama performs terribly (36% favorable vs. 55% unfavorable; 47% strongly unfavorable).
"Of more interest than the overall numbers, however, may be how this issue plays in Democrat primaries. The Democrat primary electorate is much different than the overall electorate. In fact, among Democrats who have voted in at least half of the six most recent statewide primary elections, they have a favorable impression of the President (54% favorable vs. 38% unfavorable). In addition, they are slightly supportive of the President’s healthcare plan (43% favor vs. 39% oppose). Similarly, those Democrats who adopt the label of either moderate or liberal (44% of the state’s registered Democrats), 49% support the President’s proposal while only 32% oppose it. Clearly, the support for Obama among Democrat primary voters will put those campaigning to win their party’s nomination in a tough position. To win a general election in this environment, they will be encouraged to distance themselves from their President; however, to win the nomination, being close to him could be seen as a positive, and any candidate with a serious primary challenge cannot be seen as being opposed to the President.
"Obama will create a very fine line to walk for the major contenders for the Democrat gubernatorial election. For example, those who have a strongly favorable impression of Drew Edmondson are split in their opinion of the President (45% favorable vs. 44% unfavorable). The same can be said for those with a strongly favorable impression of Jari Askins (Obama: 49% favorable vs. 45% unfavorable). In addition, Obama is so disliked by Republicans (14% favorable vs. 75% unfavorable; 67% strongly unfavorable) that he will serve to unite all Republicans come November 2010.
"Clearly, as much as state Democrats will ultimately try to distance themselves from a very unpopular President, Republicans will do everything they can to make certain he is the issue in 2010," McFerron writes.
Overall, the Sooner Survey found Obama less popular than he was in the 2008 presidential election. Obama's total favorable rating is only 31 percent; that's 18 percent strongly favorable and 13 percent somewhat favorable. His unfavorable rating is 56 percent; that's 48 percent strongly unfavorable and 8 percent somewhat unfavorable. Only 11 percent had no opinion. One percent said they'd never heard of him.
The Sooner Survey is considered to be a Republican research firm; its polls, however, have proven remarkably accurate.
President Barrack Obama, pollster Pat McFerron (pictured) writes, "will undoubtedly be a tremendous anchor on Democrat chances in Oklahoma in 2010. Among registered Democrats who say they are a conservative (56% of all Democrats), Obama performs terribly (36% favorable vs. 55% unfavorable; 47% strongly unfavorable).
"Of more interest than the overall numbers, however, may be how this issue plays in Democrat primaries. The Democrat primary electorate is much different than the overall electorate. In fact, among Democrats who have voted in at least half of the six most recent statewide primary elections, they have a favorable impression of the President (54% favorable vs. 38% unfavorable). In addition, they are slightly supportive of the President’s healthcare plan (43% favor vs. 39% oppose). Similarly, those Democrats who adopt the label of either moderate or liberal (44% of the state’s registered Democrats), 49% support the President’s proposal while only 32% oppose it. Clearly, the support for Obama among Democrat primary voters will put those campaigning to win their party’s nomination in a tough position. To win a general election in this environment, they will be encouraged to distance themselves from their President; however, to win the nomination, being close to him could be seen as a positive, and any candidate with a serious primary challenge cannot be seen as being opposed to the President.
"Obama will create a very fine line to walk for the major contenders for the Democrat gubernatorial election. For example, those who have a strongly favorable impression of Drew Edmondson are split in their opinion of the President (45% favorable vs. 44% unfavorable). The same can be said for those with a strongly favorable impression of Jari Askins (Obama: 49% favorable vs. 45% unfavorable). In addition, Obama is so disliked by Republicans (14% favorable vs. 75% unfavorable; 67% strongly unfavorable) that he will serve to unite all Republicans come November 2010.
"Clearly, as much as state Democrats will ultimately try to distance themselves from a very unpopular President, Republicans will do everything they can to make certain he is the issue in 2010," McFerron writes.
Overall, the Sooner Survey found Obama less popular than he was in the 2008 presidential election. Obama's total favorable rating is only 31 percent; that's 18 percent strongly favorable and 13 percent somewhat favorable. His unfavorable rating is 56 percent; that's 48 percent strongly unfavorable and 8 percent somewhat unfavorable. Only 11 percent had no opinion. One percent said they'd never heard of him.
The Sooner Survey is considered to be a Republican research firm; its polls, however, have proven remarkably accurate.
Labels: 2010 Election Year, Barack Obama, Pat McFerron, Sooner Survey
posted by Mike McCarville @ 4:19 PM
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