Tuesday, November 2, 2010

McCarville The Gadfly: Election Day Predictions

Election Day: Will it be a GOP sweep in Oklahoma and across the nation? All the signs indicate that will be the case. Here in Oklahoma, the newest Oklahoma Poll has all Republicans, with the exception of insurance commissioner candidate John Doak, leading their Democratic opponents. Herewith, the Gadfly's experienced (almost 50 years in Oklahoma politics) estimation (guesstimation is more accurate) of what's about to happen:

GOVERNOR - We elect a woman whose winning percentage is in the mid 50s. Her name is Mary Fallin. Her election caps a 20-year political career that began with a House race in 1990.

LT. GOVERNOR - Welcome Todd Lamb to higher office. Kenneth Corn's attack commercials backfired.

ATTORNEY GENERAL - Scott Pruitt's name will be on the door; Democratic law firms will be shut out of involvement in profitable state lawsuits. He'll have to be careful in dealing with the poultry industry, having taken their donations for his campaign.

INSURANCE COMMISSIONER - Democrat Kim Holland escapes the Republican sweep with a razor-close win over Doak.

SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION - Janet Barresi sends Susan Paddack packing and will put her stamp on Oklahoma's public education program despite constant criticism from the education lobby.

AUDITOR & INSPECTOR - After two losses, Gary Jones gets his chance to perform after a narrow win despite being outspent 6-to-1; he will seek to change the entire culture of the office after years of Democrat control, and that means many personnel changes.

LABOR COMMISSIONER - Mark Costello's tenure will be marked by controversy as he tries to shake the office of the union influence of the past four years; his selection of top aides may be questioned. Costello's likely to defeat incumbent Democrat Lloyd Fields by the largest margin any Republican will see on Tuesday.

TREASURER - Republican Ken Miller ascends, defeating no-name Stephen Covert, with a solid win. Miller's likely to join Costello with the largest victory margin.

STATE SENATE - Change from domination by rural Democrats to Republicans continues with the election of one or two Republicans from rural areas. The GOP adds two to four seats, solidifying control and continuing the remarkable transformation of the upper house that began 10 years ago.

Changing Face Of The Senate
2008 Election *
D = 22  R = 26
* First GOP Majority
2006 Election *
D = 24  R = 24
* Historic Tied Senate
2004 Election
D = 26  R = 22
2002 Election
D = 28  R = 20
2000 Election
D = 30  R = 18
1998 Election
D = 33 R = 15

STATE HOUSE - GOP pickups (+4) ensure Kris Steele is the next speaker in fact.

CONGRESS 2nd DISTRICT - Swimming upstream in this GOP year, Democratic Congressman Dan Boren coasts to victory, impervious to Republican attempts to paint him as a liberal linked to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

CONGRESS 5th DISTRICT - Republican James Lankford caps his remarkable underdog campaign with a solid win. Mr. Lankford Goes To Washington. ~ Mike McCarville, aka The Gadfly



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