Saturday, October 30, 2010

Consultants: Election Fallin's To Lose

By Michael McNutt/The Oklahoman ~ Republican gubernatorial candidate Mary Fallin's lead peaked earlier this year at 26 points, but she still has enough of a lead that it could be difficult for Democrat Jari Askins to overcome by Tuesday's election, a Republican pollster and strategist said Friday.

Recent polling shows Fallin, a congresswoman from Edmond, with a 16- to 18-point lead, said Pat McFerron, director of survey research for Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass and Associates. Fallin's campaign said a poll done earlier this week showed her with a 19-point lead.

Askins, the state's lieutenant governor, said earlier this week her polls show she is within single digits, but her campaign declined to give specifics.

McFerron said voter turnout for Askins and Fallin will be key, "but for Askins to narrow this race, I don't think she'll be able to get there."

A bigger voter turnout should help Askins, but she may fall short of overtaking Fallin, he said.

Turnout is key

Neva Hill, a political consultant who has mostly Republican clients and who predicted Askins' upset victory in the July Democratic primary, said she hasn't seen an intense get-out-the-vote effort by either side.

"Part of that is just the general climate out there and the fact that there's been so much attention on the national picture and people seeing that it's going to be such a Republican tidal wave coming through the Congress that it may have diminished some of the momentum and some of the feeling here at the state level," she said.

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