Friday, September 10, 2010

Boren's Pollster Claims 34 Percent Advantage

Congressman Dan Boren's pollster says he has a substantial lead in his campaign for reelection.

Andrew Myers, in a memo to Boren's campaign obtained by The McCarville Report Online, claims Boren leads Republican nominee Charles Thompson by 34 percent, 65 to 31 percent.

Wrote Myers, "Despite a very tough national environment for Democrats generally, and one which we see here as well, Congressman Dan Boren breaks the mold and is able to shake off that national environment and dominate this race for reelection. Indeed, today Boren leads this contest by a very wide 34-point margin, 65 to 31 percent.

"Notably, Boren’s vote share is 22-points higher than that of a generic Democratic candidate for Congress. Additionally, despite evidence of an energy gap, Boren leads by a 27-point margin among the most energized voters, despite all other Democrats trailing among that same bloc.

"There is little question that the strong personal connection Boren has forged with voters here blunts the national trends we see at play in this district. Indeed, Boren earns a very warm 62-degree mean personal feeling thermometer2 today, with warm or favorable ratings outnumbering cool or unfavorable ratings by a more than two and a half to one ratio (50 percent warm – 19 percent cool).

"Additionally, while this cycle is yielding strongly net negative professional reviews for most members of Congress - and indeed politicians at every level – Boren’s job approval sits above majority here with 53 percent of voters rating his job as Congressman as excellent or good and just 40 percent rating it as just fair or poor. As a frame of reference for just how remarkably strong Boren’s professional standing is, only 22 percent of voters here rate President Obama’s job as excellent-or-good, while nearly three quarters, 74 percent, rate Obama’s job as fair-to-poor.

"All in all, despite this tough political climate for Democrats, Boren’s strong personal connection with voters here, coupled with positive appraisals of his job performance, put him in a rock solid position and trajectory to win this race."

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