Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Rasmussen Reports: Fallin Remains Race Leader

Rasmussen Reports, apparently ignoring the July 27th Republican primary, reports that Congresswoman Mary Fallin remains the most competitive Republican in the general election for governor, with Attorney General Drew Edmondson her strongest Democratic opponent.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Oklahoma finds Fallin earning 48% support to Edmondson’s 39%. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate in the race, and 10% are undecided.

Fallin posted a 51% to 36% lead over Edmondson in the only previous Rasmussen Reports survey of the race in late February.

In a matchup with Edmondson’s Democratic Primary opponent, Lieutenant Governor Jari Askins, Fallin gets 55% support. Askins earns 32% of the vote. Seven percent (7%) like another candidate, and seven percent (7%) more are undecided.

Fallin led Askins by a 51% to 37% margin in February.

Rasmussen Reports doesn't list a Fallin matchup against other GOP candidates.

Edmondson posts double-digit leads over three other Republicans in the race – State Senator Randy Brogdon (46% to 35%), businessman Robert Hubbard (44% to 31%) and retired businessman Roger Jackson (45% to 29%). In these matchups, 19% to 26% of voters either favor another candidate or are undecided.

However, these GOP candidates run stronger when Askins is the Democrat in the race. Brogdon leads 47% to 38%, while Hubbard edges her 43% to 38%. Jackson and Askins are in a virtual tie, 42% to 40% respectively. Fifteen (15%) to 19% like someone else or are undecided.

Both parties will pick their gubernatorial nominees in a July 27 primary.

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Oklahoma was conducted on June 30, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Republican Senator Tom Coburn is far ahead of both his Democratic challengers in his bid for reelection in Oklahoma this year.

Fallin, who voted against the national health care plan in the House, is an early beneficiary of the national political mood in a state with unusually high Tea Party membership.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Oklahoma voters favor repeal of the health care plan, well above the level of opposition nationwide. Twenty-eight percent (28%) oppose repeal. This includes 58% who Strongly Favor repeal and 20% who are Strongly Opposed,

Seventy-three percent (73%) of those who Strongly Favor repeal support Fallin, while 80% of the much smaller group who are Strongly Opposed back Edmonson. The levels of support are similar in a Fallin-Askins contest.

The other Republicans generally don’t earn as much support from those Strongly in Favor of repeal, but their Democratic opponents draw consistently high support from those Strongly Opposed.

Thirty-five percent (35%) of all voters in the state consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement, more than twice the number found nationwide. Forty-five percent (45%) say they are not members, while another 20% are not sure.

Seventy-five percent (75%) of Tea Party members and a plurality (49%) of those who are not sure support Fallin. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of non-members favor Edmonson.

The other Republicans earn high Tea Party support if Askins is in the race but don’t fare as well against Edmonson.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of all voters in Oklahoma say the Tea Party movement is good for the country, also higher than voter sentiment nationally. Just 22% say it’s a bad thing for America.

Sixty-four percent (64%) of Oklahoma voters favor passage of an immigration law like Arizona’s in their own state, higher support than is found nationally.

Seventy-six percent (76%) support one of the key provisions of the Arizona law, that local police are required to check the immigration status of anyone stopped for a traffic or other violation if they suspect that person is an illegal immigrant.

Fallin, the first woman elected lieutenant governor in the state and a member of Congress since 2006, is viewed Very Favorably by 22% of voters in the state and Very Unfavorably by 16%.

Edmondson, attorney general since 1994, is seen Very Favorably by 23%, while 13% regard him Very Unfavorably.

For Askins, a former legislator and judge, Very Favorables are 19% and Very Unfavorables 18%.

Twelve percent (12%) have a Very Favorable opinion of Brogden, while 16% view him Very Unfavorably.

Five percent (5%) share a Very Favorable view of Hubbard, but 14% regard him Very Unfavorably.

Jackson has Very Favorables of three percent (3%) and Very Unfavorables of 14%.

At this early stage of the campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the very favorable and very unfavorable figures more significant than the overall favorability totals.

Sixty percent (60%) of voters approve of the performance of current Democratic Governor Brad Henry, down slightly from February. Thirty-nine percent (39%) disapprove. Henry is term-limited and cannot seek reelection.

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