New Oklahoma Poll: Fallin With 'A Clear Lead'

By Randy Krehbiel/Tulsa World ~ Fifth District Congresswoman Mary Fallin has a clear lead in the 2010 Oklahoma governor's race, a new Oklahoma Poll has found.

Fallin, an Oklahoma City Republican, was the overwhelming choice of GOP voters surveyed and was the pick of the majority of respondents in head-to-head matchups against Democrats Drew Edmondson and Jari Askins.

The Jan. 2-5 survey of likely voters by SoonerPoll.com included 325 Democrats, 267 Republicans, 28 independents and one Libertarian. The breakdown reflects the state's actual voter registration and recent voter participation patterns.

More than two-thirds of the Republicans surveyed say they favor Fallin, with 16 percent going for Owasso state Sen. Randy Brogdon and a similar share undecided.

Among Democrats, Edmondson led Askins 46 percent to 36 percent with 18 percent undecided.

Head-to-head, Fallin bested Edmondson 51-39 and Askins 52-36.

Poll respondent Christine Peterson of Tulsa said she likes Fallin's "strong core values. She's very conservative. Christian. She totally goes along with what I believe in."

SoonerPoll President Bill Shapard said that conservative reputation is Fallin's trump card.

The survey showed Fallin leading even Brogdon (who is trying to mount a populist challenge to Fallin from the right) almost 4-to-1 among voters who describe themselves as very conservative. Against Edmondson, Fallin leads 3-to-1 among all conservatives and 5-to-1 among the very conservative.

Self-described conservatives made up 58 percent of the sample. Slightly more than 10 percent considered themselves liberal.

"I really think this election will be a fight for conservative votes, even in the primaries," Shapard said.

For Edmondson, and to a lesser extent Askins, the only good news was that they are also seen as fairly conservative, even by Republicans.

A little more than 40 percent of Republicans, in fact, said they have a favorable impression of Edmondson — about the same percentage as Democrats who said they're favorably impressed by Fallin.

Democrats, though, were far more willing to cross party lines.

"I am a lifelong Democrat," said Jesse Raine of Bixby. "I voted against Eisenhower, that's how far back I go. The last few elections, the Democrat Party has moved so far to the left that I just don't trust almost anybody who claims to be a Democrat."

Raine rated President Barack Obama "on a scale of 1 to 10, a minus-100" and said the president is out to wreck the country.

Shapard said that sentiment is something Edmondson and Askins will have to overcome.

"Republicans will spend the next year trying as much as they can to tie Oklahoma Democrats to national Democrats," he said.

Edmondson, a four-term state attorney general, held a 4 percentage point lead on Fallin in the Tulsa metro area but otherwise trailed her by double digits throughout the state. Edmondson and Askins, the lieutenant governor, both led Fallin among liberals and moderates, but that is not enough with Oklahoma's decidedly conservative electorate.

"I'm looking for someone who has very conservative values," said Peterson. "The state needs to get down to that core base. It's the only way we're going to survive."

At least one Little Dixie Democrat disagreed.

"I don't like Mary Fallin because I'm a Democrat and I go with the Democrat program," said Lilah Rodgers of McAlester.

"I like (Edmondson) because I think he's done a pretty good job as attorney general. I think he has had more experience with the people of Oklahoma. I like the fact he tried to clean up the rivers and lakes from the chicken farms."

The poll found Governor Brad Henry remains the most popular elected official in the state, followed closely by Senator Tom Coburn and Senator Jim Inhofe. President Obama remains distinctly unpopular. See the chart at the top right side of this page and read the details at www.tulsaworld.com.

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