Tulsa Poll: Bartlett Leads Adelson 40-32%
By Randy Krehbiel/Tulsa World Staff Writer ~ Two months of highly charged campaigning have hardly budged public opinion about Tuesday's Tulsa mayoral election, the Oklahoma Poll has found.
The survey of 687 likely voters, taken Oct. 31 to Nov. 5, shows Republican Dewey Bartlett Jr. leading Democrat Tom Adelson 40 percent to 32 percent — an 8-point spread — with independent Mark Perkins at 14 percent.
A similar survey taken just before the city primary in September gave Bartlett a 10-point lead in a head-to-head matchup. That survey did not include Perkins or fellow independent Larry Kirkpatrick.
In the only other citywide race, incumbent City Auditor Phil Wood, a Democrat, and Republican challenger Preston Doerflinger were virtually even, with nearly one-fourth of those surveyed indicating no preference.
If the sometimes-bombastic mayoral campaign changed many minds, voters were reluctant to admit it. "I don't like the mudslinging," said poll respondent Alfreda Shaw. "It gets away from the issues that people really want to talk about it. I'm looking for someone to keep bringing the city of Tulsa forward."
For Shaw, a Democrat, that likely means a vote for Adelson. But Republicans outnumber Democrats in Tulsa, and this campaign appears to be sharply divided along party lines. Nearly two-thirds of Republicans said they will vote for Bartlett, while almost 60 percent of Democrats favored Adelson. Perkins, a registered Republican, drew equally from Republicans and Democrats — 14.5 percent each.
"Perkins is really not a factor," said Bill Shapard, president of SoonerPoll.com, which conducted the survey. "He's finding out what most independents find out in Oklahoma. They can either be a spoiler or have no impact."
Many thought Perkins might hurt Bartlett's chances, but the biggest share of his support came from self-described moderates.
Self-described conservatives, who made up more than half the sample, went for Bartlett 4-to-1. Fewer than 1-in-10 of those who consider themselves very conservative said they would vote for Adelson.
"I believe (Bartlett) has better experience for this job," said Janet Beers, a conservative voter whose first choice for mayor was Republican former city councilor Chris Medlock. Beers said integrity was the most important quality for a mayoral candidate. "That is a leadership value," she said. "I want somebody who is a team player, who doesn't try to run the whole thing himself. Also somebody who is accountable. Somebody who doesn't try to hide. And somebody who looks to the welfare of others, not just one group.
"I also want somebody who's not into big government. I want people who take care of people, not government."
Adelson held a big margin among liberals and led Bartlett 42 percent to 25 percent among moderates. He did slightly better than Bartlett with women, particularly single women, and by a narrow margin was seen as best-suited to deal with education issues. Bartlett, however, was seen as best suited to handle the city budget, crime, economic development, streets and roads and downtown development. The two were even on neighborhood issues.
"I favor Bartlett because he has a history as a businessman, and I tend to vote Republican," said Amelia Jones. "I personally do not care too much for how Adelson presents himself."
"I don't like either one of them, but because of the fact (Adelson) is a Democrat I'll probably vote for him," said Margaret Goodell. "I don't like the advertisements," Goodell said. "I don't know if I believe all of that . . . I just don't feel like they're bringing much energy to it. I don't know anything they've said that's really progressive or going to help much."
Conventional wisdom is that national politics favor Republicans in Oklahoma, but Vicki Dalton, who described herself as a former Republican, said the opposite is true for her. "I have a huge problem with the Republican Party right now," Dalton said. "I have real anger with that party for first time in my life. Republicans are standing in the way of progress. Bartlett is a Republican, and he's going to be supporting those Republicans."
The survey of 687 likely voters, taken Oct. 31 to Nov. 5, shows Republican Dewey Bartlett Jr. leading Democrat Tom Adelson 40 percent to 32 percent — an 8-point spread — with independent Mark Perkins at 14 percent.
A similar survey taken just before the city primary in September gave Bartlett a 10-point lead in a head-to-head matchup. That survey did not include Perkins or fellow independent Larry Kirkpatrick.
In the only other citywide race, incumbent City Auditor Phil Wood, a Democrat, and Republican challenger Preston Doerflinger were virtually even, with nearly one-fourth of those surveyed indicating no preference.
If the sometimes-bombastic mayoral campaign changed many minds, voters were reluctant to admit it. "I don't like the mudslinging," said poll respondent Alfreda Shaw. "It gets away from the issues that people really want to talk about it. I'm looking for someone to keep bringing the city of Tulsa forward."
For Shaw, a Democrat, that likely means a vote for Adelson. But Republicans outnumber Democrats in Tulsa, and this campaign appears to be sharply divided along party lines. Nearly two-thirds of Republicans said they will vote for Bartlett, while almost 60 percent of Democrats favored Adelson. Perkins, a registered Republican, drew equally from Republicans and Democrats — 14.5 percent each.
"Perkins is really not a factor," said Bill Shapard, president of SoonerPoll.com, which conducted the survey. "He's finding out what most independents find out in Oklahoma. They can either be a spoiler or have no impact."
Many thought Perkins might hurt Bartlett's chances, but the biggest share of his support came from self-described moderates.
Self-described conservatives, who made up more than half the sample, went for Bartlett 4-to-1. Fewer than 1-in-10 of those who consider themselves very conservative said they would vote for Adelson.
"I believe (Bartlett) has better experience for this job," said Janet Beers, a conservative voter whose first choice for mayor was Republican former city councilor Chris Medlock. Beers said integrity was the most important quality for a mayoral candidate. "That is a leadership value," she said. "I want somebody who is a team player, who doesn't try to run the whole thing himself. Also somebody who is accountable. Somebody who doesn't try to hide. And somebody who looks to the welfare of others, not just one group.
"I also want somebody who's not into big government. I want people who take care of people, not government."
Adelson held a big margin among liberals and led Bartlett 42 percent to 25 percent among moderates. He did slightly better than Bartlett with women, particularly single women, and by a narrow margin was seen as best-suited to deal with education issues. Bartlett, however, was seen as best suited to handle the city budget, crime, economic development, streets and roads and downtown development. The two were even on neighborhood issues.
"I favor Bartlett because he has a history as a businessman, and I tend to vote Republican," said Amelia Jones. "I personally do not care too much for how Adelson presents himself."
"I don't like either one of them, but because of the fact (Adelson) is a Democrat I'll probably vote for him," said Margaret Goodell. "I don't like the advertisements," Goodell said. "I don't know if I believe all of that . . . I just don't feel like they're bringing much energy to it. I don't know anything they've said that's really progressive or going to help much."
Conventional wisdom is that national politics favor Republicans in Oklahoma, but Vicki Dalton, who described herself as a former Republican, said the opposite is true for her. "I have a huge problem with the Republican Party right now," Dalton said. "I have real anger with that party for first time in my life. Republicans are standing in the way of progress. Bartlett is a Republican, and he's going to be supporting those Republicans."
posted by Mike McCarville @ 9:11 AM
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