An Analysis: Burning Through The Bucks

Oklahoma's election for governor is a year in the distance, but the four leading candidates, two Democrats and two Republicans, already have spent more than $1.2 million of the $3 million they've raised.

That's an overall "burn rate" of about 40 percent.

It's not how much you raise; it's how fast you spend it, and when you spend it

Campaign finance analysts often use the burn rate as a measure of how a campaign is protecting, or using up, its cash reserves. The candidate with the lowest burn rate, the theory goes, will have the most cash on hand when it really counts, in the final, crunch days of the campaign. The counter theory is that the candidate that spends the most in the early days of the campaign will be competitive in those final, crunch days. Somewhere between the two theories, there is truth. But every campaign is different and every candidate has to determine how his or her spending of donated dollars contributes to the ultimate goal: Election.

The four candidates for governor of Oklahoma in 2010 face different challenges. One, considered by most a decided underdog, has scant financial resources and thus, is pinching pennies even though his burn rate is the highest of those in the race. Another has raised the most and thus, has the luxury of being able to spend the most but still show a middle-of-the-road burn rate.

Sometimes, what appears to be a high burn rate by a candidate is simply good planning and the purchase of goods, services, or advertising early long before they are needed. Or, a high burn rate can show out-of-control spending that's counter-productive and a waste of assets. In a Tulsa congressional race 23 years ago, one candidate's wife ignored the campaign manager and the finance chairman and ordered thousands of imprinted emery boards for a cash-strapped campaign (burn rate: 101 percent) that badly needed every dollar for radio and television advertising. The candidate (and his wife) lost and faced a considerable campaign debt.

In a Kansas congressional race in the late 1980s, the Republican candidate was frugal; so frugal, in fact, that he ignored all his advisers and refused to spend significant dollars at a critical time on a final-five-days advertising blitz, arguing that he was going to win and wanted to save the money to scare off any future challenger. The result was he ended the campaign with a huge sum of cash on hand. He lost the election, of course. By a whisker. (Burn rate: 31.2%)

Understanding when to spend campaign dollars is almost as important as how it is spent. Winning campaigns manage to walk the tightrope between dollars raised and spent and most of the successful ones end with all dollars spent and just enough cash on hand to clean up the inevitable final bills. When I was a manager and consultant, it was my mantra that I would not allow any candidate to end a campaign with a debt unless the candidate specifically directed the spending that would result in the debt and knew the debt would be his and/or the campaign's to pay. More than one candidate thanked me profusely. And a couple cussed me out as being too conservative; both lost, so their angst was understandable.

In next year's race for governor, the spending certainly will soar as the primaries near. The candidates with the most cash resources when spending decisions for that critical time are at hand likely will succeed. That having been said, here are the candidates, their dollars raised and spent and their burn rates through the September 30th reporting period:

DEMOCRAT JARI ASKINS ~ Raised: $670,334; Spent: $245,150; Burn Rate: 36.6%; Largest expenditures: consultant Don Hoover of Oklahoma City, $42,902; ORO Affiliates of Stillwater, $16,000.

REPUBLICAN RANDY BROGDON ~ Raised: $123,085; Spent: $70,303; Burn Rate: 57.1%; Largest Expenditures: miscellaneous for campaign advertising materials.

DEMOCRAT DREW EDMONDSON ~ Raised: $1,338,564; Spent: $541,183; Burn Rate: 40.4%; Largest expenditures: payroll for seven employees; $40,785 to Fundraising Management of Bethesda, MD; $34,624 to consultants Lake Research Partners, Washington, D. C.

REPUBLICAN MARY FALLIN ~ Raised: $872,387; Spent: $423,642; Burn Rate: 48.5%; Largest expenditures: payroll for six employees; $30,000 to pollster and consultant Ed Goeas of Alexandria, VA; $35,000 to the Tarrance Group, Alexandria, VA; $121,092 to Sagac Public Affairs of Oklahoma City for rent, consulting and fundraising; $46,323 to Hockaday & Associates of Alexandria, VA, for website and email management; $32,171 to Direct Mail Systems of Clearwater, FL.

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