National Republicans Target Dan Boren
The National Republican Congressional Committee has targeted Oklahoma Democratic Congressman Dan Boren of the 2nd District for defeat.Boren is one of about six dozen House Democrats the NRCC has listed as a target in 2010.
Commentary: Tilting At Windmills? Republican strategists apparently believe John McCain's strong showing in the 2nd District means Democrat Boren is vulnerable. That belief overlooks the penchant of the district's mostly-Democrat voters to vote for the man in past elections. The 2nd elected liberal Democrat Mike Synar in years past, elected conservative Republican Tom Coburn more recently, and has given overwhelming support to the conservative Boren, who now sits on a campaign warchest of more than $1.2 million. His likely GOP opponents will be lucky to raise a fifth of that sum combined and while the NRCC lists Boren as a target, it may not be inclined to pour money into trying to defeat him if polls show continued strength on his part. Boren's conservative bonafides are substantial; he's a member of the Blue Dogs and is a newly-elected member of the National Rifle Association's Board of Directors who will be endorsed by the NRA and by the Oklahoma Rifle Association, both with some clout among voters in the 2nd District. (Disclaimer: Your commentator is a life member of both organizations and is a consultant to the NRA.) Boren has cast some votes that will cause him discomfort, he'll spend time explaining his 81 percent support of Obama's agenda (including "Cash For Clunkers") and he'll be needled repeatedly by both local and national Republicans. But unless something dramatic occurs or a name Republican with money to burn gets into the race, make Boren a 10-to-1 favorite to be easily reelected. ~ Mike McCarville
The listing appears to be based, in part, on Republican John McCain's showing in the district in the 2008 presidential race; he got about 66 percent of the vote over Democrat Barack Obama. George Bush did about as well in 2004, when Boren defeated three other Democrats outright with 58 percent of the vote. He won the general with 66 percent. In 2006, he hit 73 percent. In 2008, he got 85 percent in the primary against a no-name opponent and got 70.5 percent in the general while McCain was close behind him. The two percentages demonstrate the tendency of 2nd District voters to pick and chose, party notwithstanding.
Boren declined to endorse Obama despite immense pressure that he do so. His father, OU President David Boren, strongly endorsed Obama as did Governor Brad Henry.
"They're looking at the numbers without understanding the situation," said veteran GOP pollster Chris Wilson of the NRCC's action. Wilson heads Wilson Research Strategies in Washington and Oklahoma City.
Another veteran GOP operative and insider said, "In all likelihood he is safe, but a storm could develop. If you look at Charlie Cook’s Partisan Voting Index, he gives Republicans a 14-point advantage and rates it as the 68th most Republican congressional seat in the nation. Boren’s real problem would occur should he break from Obama in a public way and encourage a Democratic primary. Kalyn Free (liberal defeated by Boren in the 2004 primary) running there could move Boren to the left and leave him vulnerable if a state legislator (say Tad Jones who could raise money as House floor leader) decided to take a flyer (and run)."
McCain's showing apparently has prompted some Republicans to consider running against Boren. GOP Chairman Gary Jones told The Oklahoman's Chris Casteel there are six who have said they might run. Three already have declared as candidates but none of them are at this time considered real contenders; the entry of Tad Jones, or someone similiar, could change the dynamic.
Commentary: Tilting At Windmills? Republican strategists apparently believe John McCain's strong showing in the 2nd District means Democrat Boren is vulnerable. That belief overlooks the penchant of the district's mostly-Democrat voters to vote for the man in past elections. The 2nd elected liberal Democrat Mike Synar in years past, elected conservative Republican Tom Coburn more recently, and has given overwhelming support to the conservative Boren, who now sits on a campaign warchest of more than $1.2 million. His likely GOP opponents will be lucky to raise a fifth of that sum combined and while the NRCC lists Boren as a target, it may not be inclined to pour money into trying to defeat him if polls show continued strength on his part. Boren's conservative bonafides are substantial; he's a member of the Blue Dogs and is a newly-elected member of the National Rifle Association's Board of Directors who will be endorsed by the NRA and by the Oklahoma Rifle Association, both with some clout among voters in the 2nd District. (Disclaimer: Your commentator is a life member of both organizations and is a consultant to the NRA.) Boren has cast some votes that will cause him discomfort, he'll spend time explaining his 81 percent support of Obama's agenda (including "Cash For Clunkers") and he'll be needled repeatedly by both local and national Republicans. But unless something dramatic occurs or a name Republican with money to burn gets into the race, make Boren a 10-to-1 favorite to be easily reelected. ~ Mike McCarville
The listing appears to be based, in part, on Republican John McCain's showing in the district in the 2008 presidential race; he got about 66 percent of the vote over Democrat Barack Obama. George Bush did about as well in 2004, when Boren defeated three other Democrats outright with 58 percent of the vote. He won the general with 66 percent. In 2006, he hit 73 percent. In 2008, he got 85 percent in the primary against a no-name opponent and got 70.5 percent in the general while McCain was close behind him. The two percentages demonstrate the tendency of 2nd District voters to pick and chose, party notwithstanding.
Boren declined to endorse Obama despite immense pressure that he do so. His father, OU President David Boren, strongly endorsed Obama as did Governor Brad Henry.
"They're looking at the numbers without understanding the situation," said veteran GOP pollster Chris Wilson of the NRCC's action. Wilson heads Wilson Research Strategies in Washington and Oklahoma City.
Another veteran GOP operative and insider said, "In all likelihood he is safe, but a storm could develop. If you look at Charlie Cook’s Partisan Voting Index, he gives Republicans a 14-point advantage and rates it as the 68th most Republican congressional seat in the nation. Boren’s real problem would occur should he break from Obama in a public way and encourage a Democratic primary. Kalyn Free (liberal defeated by Boren in the 2004 primary) running there could move Boren to the left and leave him vulnerable if a state legislator (say Tad Jones who could raise money as House floor leader) decided to take a flyer (and run)."
McCain's showing apparently has prompted some Republicans to consider running against Boren. GOP Chairman Gary Jones told The Oklahoman's Chris Casteel there are six who have said they might run. Three already have declared as candidates but none of them are at this time considered real contenders; the entry of Tad Jones, or someone similiar, could change the dynamic.
Labels: Dan Boren
posted by Mike McCarville @ 10:14 AM
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