Can Jim Roth Pull It Off?

Can Corporation Commissioner Jim Roth go into the Oklahoma political history books as the first openly-gay candidate to win statewide office when the votes are counted tomorrow?

An Analysis

Roth's historic campaign has made him the darling of homosexual activist groups across the nation. They have showered him with campaign donations and urged their Oklahoma members to work in his campaign.

Thus far, on the surface, Roth's lifestyle has been a non-issue. Beneath the surface, however, it is very much an issue, particularly in rural Oklahoma. Conversations with Republicans and Democrats alike in rural counties indicate Roth likely won't run well in many of them, although some believe the vote in their counties will be close between Roth and his Republican challenger, Dana Murphy.

Polls indicate Roth is weaker in rural areas than in the state's two large metropolitan areas, Oklahoma City and Tulsa. The 1st Congressional District, which includes Tulsa, appears his strongest area in most polls. They give him a lead there, while Oklahoma County is close. Roth may benefit from a Democrat surge in the Tulsa area; the polls also show that area to be Barack Obama's strongest spot in the state and Democrat U. S. Senate candidate Andrew Rice also appears to be running well there, although incumbent Senator Jim Inhofe has a massive, 36 percent lead in rural Oklahoma based on the latest "Oklahoma Poll" conducted by Sooner Poll.

If Roth manages to win Tulsa County and rural areas go to Murphy by narrow margins, Oklahoma County could well decide the outcome of the race and Murphy needs a huge turnout in her favor, it appears. The latest "Oklahoma Poll" shows Roth with a 12 percent lead statewide. The new TvPoll for KWTV shows Rice at 49.8 percent, Murphy at 35.3 percent. She leads in western Oklahoma City and the Oklahoma City metro area. Roth has leads elsewhere, but the poll numbers are close, several within the poll's margin of error.

The latest SurveyUSA poll, however, makes it just a 3-point race, edge to Roth at 49-46 percent, and the battle in rural areas appears to be a dead heat. If Murphy manages to roll up margins in rural areas, Roth's path to victory gets cloudy.

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