Most See Close Johnson-Murphy Primary

Rob Johnson...or Dana Murphy?

Ask Republican insiders and other observers about their Tuesday primary for the Corporation Commission and the opinions fly all over the place as the two battle to win the right to face incumbent Democrat Jim Roth for the remainder of the two-year term to which Roth was appointed when Republican Denise Bode resigned.

"Well," said one of the state's most astute analysts, "I'd say Johnson but we're also waiting to see what Murphy's last minute media blitz does. These candidates have not really had the money to run effective major statewide campaigns, so there's a lot of play -- my 6:5 pick is Johnson."

"Murphy by a nose," said another. "But don't bet any money on it."

Said one of the state's top GOP consultants: "Dana began the race as a front-runner...and supposedly had the support of most in the energy industry. But she and others underestimated Rob's ability to raise funds from the OIPA oil/gas crowd, and she found herself behind in fundraising. She never caught up, despite loaning her own money to her campaign. Then, instead of hiring a campaign-tested advertising firm, she went with a downtown OKC corporate ad agency that doesn't understand political campaigns. The result of her weak-by-comparison fundraising and her poor hiring decision is unconvincing paid media and too little of it. Murphy clearly started out ahead on a statewide ballot, but Johnson has erased that advantage and, by Election Day, will have taken Dana's lead and won the nomination."

Johnson, State House member and the son of Senator Mike Johnson of Kingfisher, challenged Murphy's candidacy during the filing period; his challenge, based on a technicality, was rejected by the Election Board and was viewed by many as a trivial attack that didn't work.

Murphy, perceived by many the initial front-runner, appears to some to have lost her momentum in the paid media battle. Johnson was on the air early, and often, and remains so. Murphy's paid media has become increasingly apparent in the past 48 hours.

Said one GOP official: "This is a good race. Two good people, both qualified. Both have strengths. It looks very close to me as of right now (Saturday)."

Said a southern Oklahoma local GOP official: "Dana has some name ID from the 2002 race, so she's probably ahead based on that alone, and she's also strong with the hardcore party people. Rob's done a pretty good job building name ID. Either one of them will do well against Roth down here, but I do think it will be very close between them on Tuesday."

Said a veteran campaign observer in northwestern Oklahoma: "Both have good ads, with Johnson playing the 'family' card. It will be interesting to see how (Murphy's) long time involvement with the Party will play out. And, who will vote Tuesday? Will the guys get out as well as R women’s groups? I...would not bet" on the outcome.

Johnson began the race with a $164,000 transfer from his House campaign committee. He's raised, his Ethics Commission report shows, $224,000 and spent $241,000, leaving him with about $146,000 cash on hand as of the end of the last reporting period.

Murphy reports she's raised about $257,000, spent $210,000 and had about $35,000 on hand.

In her 2002 race for the commission, Murphy and eventual winner Jeff Cloud battled to a razor-thin margin for Cloud in the primary, 40 percent to 39.5 for Murphy. In the runoff, Cloud easily defeated her, 59 to 41 percent.

Share |