Gaddie's Post-Election Analysis
By Pollster, Pundit & Political Science Professor Dr. R. Keith Gaddie ~ Here's what's on my mind this morning, the day after the Ghost Primary: Before I headed up to OETA on Tuesday night, I canvassed five Cleveland County precincts.
Dana Murphy ran better than expected, far better in Norman and Moore than in the rest of the state. Her Cleveland County margin accounts for most of her winning margin statewide. Keep that in mind the next time we have a low-turnout statewide primary.
Andrew Rice gets 59% against a perennial ballot filer who doesn’t spend money and doesn’t campaign – and also loses about a dozen counties in Little Dixie. Sounds like there’s a lot of base-building to do, and as Jim Lovell said, “the Earth is getting pretty big in the window.” Rice’s new campaign manager has arrived, now the question is whether she can land this baby or if the campaign just skips off the atmosphere.
South OKC rocked the Cleveland County and state Republican primaries. While I don’t have data on hand yet, turnout was heavier in this part of the state than elsewhere. One of the reasons? An apparent coordinated effort in South OKC between Steve Russell, the runoff frontrunner (41%) for Senate 45 against Kyle Loveless (27%); Rep. Mike Reynolds, who pulled away in a bitter fight with Jon Echols; and Mark Hamm, who ran a surprising 40% for sheriff and is in a runoff with Joe Lester (41%). Three candidates coordinating effort and voters had the effect of driving up turnout with a strong ground game, and this rippled up into the corporation commissioner primary, too.
Talked to a nameless senior operative who said that the turnout models worked everywhere in the state except Cleveland County.
Oklahoma County: Brent Rinehart polled 21%, which is where we had him in a poll two weeks ago. Of the 27% undecided we picked up, it split evenly between J. D. Johnston and Brian Maughan. If the 40+5 rule holds in this runoff (frontrunner got 40%, led by five points) then there’s a nine-in-ten chance that Maughan can start looking for staff – there’s already some pretty new furniture in the office.
Tulsa County: Randi Miller, please call your service, because Tulsans voted to ring your (Sally) Bell. Note to local politicians: don’t mess with local tradition, especially when sentiment is involved.
Incumbent “scandals” fizzled, which is not a huge shock. Randy Terrill got a safe renomination, and this is a safe GOP district. Mike Reynolds is coming back again despite the best effort (again) of Lance Cargill to put him out of the legislature (again). Jabar Shumate (D-73) survived the warning shot from his constituency in a 55-45 win, but the percentage doesn’t tell how close it really was. Don’t know what the problem was for David Derby (R-74), but 52% in a three-way primary is a warning shot to an incumbent for next time out (Derby has no general election opponent).
Over in Norman, Aaron Stiles rocks the field and beats a former mayor (Ron Henderson) to earn the chance to face incumbent Wallace Collins in House 45 – now what happens when Stiles, a Republican, has to reconcile issues brought up in this campaign about his conscientious objector status? We’ll watch this one, because Wallace Collins has seen his share of young, fair-haired Republican opponents in the past (he’s 1-2-0 against young fair-haired Republicans.) But the Republican winds are weak in east Norman this year, so we will watch.
Stillwater: Two guys who have resumes to run for statewide office are running for the state legislature to succeed Mike Morgan. This seat, plus Barrington’s seat, and Nancy Riley’s seat, and you’ve got most of the playing field for control of the tied Senate. (Let’s call it a 1.5-seat map, Mr. Pro Tempore.)
For the Normanians, I did an informal census of my neighborhood. In nine-tenths of a mile running on Astor Street, there are five speed humps, two round-abouts, one “pinched” intersection, in addition to the seven drainage culverts cutting across the street. That’s a total of fifteen obstacles on a mile of road. Did we get these speed humps at a fire sale or what? A candidate running for city office next year or the year after might make hay of the notion that there's safety, and then there's overkill. We have enough speed humps to repave Broadway Extension.
Dana Murphy ran better than expected, far better in Norman and Moore than in the rest of the state. Her Cleveland County margin accounts for most of her winning margin statewide. Keep that in mind the next time we have a low-turnout statewide primary.
Andrew Rice gets 59% against a perennial ballot filer who doesn’t spend money and doesn’t campaign – and also loses about a dozen counties in Little Dixie. Sounds like there’s a lot of base-building to do, and as Jim Lovell said, “the Earth is getting pretty big in the window.” Rice’s new campaign manager has arrived, now the question is whether she can land this baby or if the campaign just skips off the atmosphere.
South OKC rocked the Cleveland County and state Republican primaries. While I don’t have data on hand yet, turnout was heavier in this part of the state than elsewhere. One of the reasons? An apparent coordinated effort in South OKC between Steve Russell, the runoff frontrunner (41%) for Senate 45 against Kyle Loveless (27%); Rep. Mike Reynolds, who pulled away in a bitter fight with Jon Echols; and Mark Hamm, who ran a surprising 40% for sheriff and is in a runoff with Joe Lester (41%). Three candidates coordinating effort and voters had the effect of driving up turnout with a strong ground game, and this rippled up into the corporation commissioner primary, too.
Talked to a nameless senior operative who said that the turnout models worked everywhere in the state except Cleveland County.
Oklahoma County: Brent Rinehart polled 21%, which is where we had him in a poll two weeks ago. Of the 27% undecided we picked up, it split evenly between J. D. Johnston and Brian Maughan. If the 40+5 rule holds in this runoff (frontrunner got 40%, led by five points) then there’s a nine-in-ten chance that Maughan can start looking for staff – there’s already some pretty new furniture in the office.
Tulsa County: Randi Miller, please call your service, because Tulsans voted to ring your (Sally) Bell. Note to local politicians: don’t mess with local tradition, especially when sentiment is involved.
Incumbent “scandals” fizzled, which is not a huge shock. Randy Terrill got a safe renomination, and this is a safe GOP district. Mike Reynolds is coming back again despite the best effort (again) of Lance Cargill to put him out of the legislature (again). Jabar Shumate (D-73) survived the warning shot from his constituency in a 55-45 win, but the percentage doesn’t tell how close it really was. Don’t know what the problem was for David Derby (R-74), but 52% in a three-way primary is a warning shot to an incumbent for next time out (Derby has no general election opponent).
Over in Norman, Aaron Stiles rocks the field and beats a former mayor (Ron Henderson) to earn the chance to face incumbent Wallace Collins in House 45 – now what happens when Stiles, a Republican, has to reconcile issues brought up in this campaign about his conscientious objector status? We’ll watch this one, because Wallace Collins has seen his share of young, fair-haired Republican opponents in the past (he’s 1-2-0 against young fair-haired Republicans.) But the Republican winds are weak in east Norman this year, so we will watch.
Stillwater: Two guys who have resumes to run for statewide office are running for the state legislature to succeed Mike Morgan. This seat, plus Barrington’s seat, and Nancy Riley’s seat, and you’ve got most of the playing field for control of the tied Senate. (Let’s call it a 1.5-seat map, Mr. Pro Tempore.)
For the Normanians, I did an informal census of my neighborhood. In nine-tenths of a mile running on Astor Street, there are five speed humps, two round-abouts, one “pinched” intersection, in addition to the seven drainage culverts cutting across the street. That’s a total of fifteen obstacles on a mile of road. Did we get these speed humps at a fire sale or what? A candidate running for city office next year or the year after might make hay of the notion that there's safety, and then there's overkill. We have enough speed humps to repave Broadway Extension.
Labels: Keith Gaddie
posted by Mike McCarville @ 9:32 AM
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