Brad Henry: Political Genius...Or Goofball?

With an approval rating that has hovered at about 75 percent for most of his tenure as governor, and the widespread perception he's a smart politician, Brad Henry is not known as a man who makes mistakes.

An Analysis ~ UPDATED AND EXPANDED

But now, two recent actions by the governor have friend and foe alike questioning his political judgment:

~ His veto of an anti-abortion bill he almost certainly knew would be overridden by the Legislature, and

~ His endorsement of Barack Obama, who managed just 31 percent of the Democratic presidential primary vote here.

One Republican political observer believes the two actions show Democratic National Convention superdelegate Henry has concluded his future lies on the national stage rather than the Oklahoma stage because both actions link Henry to the most liberal side of his party while the perception has been that he's a common-sense, moderate-conservative and it's that perception, primarily, that has fueled his popularity.

A Democrat legislator, guaranteed he wouldn't be quoted by name, said the Obama endorsement shows Henry "really is just a goofball politically. If Obama is our nominee, our candidates for the House and Senate start off with one foot in a hole and the other in quicksand...Clinton is bad enough, Obama is worse. Certainly, he must have thought of this and just disregarded it."

Henry's endorsement of Obama stunned many and caught them off guard, particularly Democrats on the inside. A Capitol Democrat in a position to know says the initial reaction was disbelief, then concern. He said some were concerned after OU President David Boren endorsed Obama, but "he's not the sitting governor and the titular head of his party" while Henry is.

This Democrat took note of a segment on KFOR-TV in Oklahoma City about the endorsement and noted the "vast majority" of those who sent in email comments were critical of it. He said some of those commenting "probably were Republicans, but this matches what I'm hearing overall."

He said he believes Henry's endorsement of Obama makes it more difficult for Democrats who are seeking legislative seats. "Most of them can tolerate Clinton...," he said, without ending the sentence. Asked if Obama's race is a factor, he acknowledged it may be in some areas. "But it's the issues mostly. Clinton's liberal, but he's just off the scale and the Republicans will beat us to death. Clinton's bad, Obama is much worse for us politically."

House Democrats plan a fundraiser Tuesday night in Oklahoma City and Henry is scheduled to attend, thus providing the first opportunity many will have to express their sentiments to Henry about his endorsment. Whether they'll do so remains to be seen.

Most Republican operatives are salivating at the thought of Obama at the top of the ticket and they're delighted Henry endorsed him. "It's Henry showing his true colors," said one. Some of them believe the Obama endorsement diminishes Henry as an advocate for legislative candidates; he had been expected to be a potent force for those Democrats he supports. "How would you like to be a Democrat in Little Dixie, or down south or out east somewhere, trying to get help from your governor and he's endorsed this way out liberal guy?" one Republican asked.

"Let's see," said another. "We've got Obama at the top and then (Andrew) Rice (candidate for the U. S. Senate) and boy, I wouldn't want to be a Democrat running for the Legislature in that mix."

Oklahoma City radio station KTOK's Capitol reporter, Peter J. Rudy, reports there's nervousness among Democrat legislators over the endorsement and notes that Republican State Chairman Gary Jones, seeeing an opening to score points, has called on Democrats in the Legislature who are seeking reelection to declare who they support for president.

Posters at http://www.okdemocrat.com/, for the most part, derided Henry for his endorsement, with "Bill" beginning the discussion by writing, "I always thought he (Henry) was a liberal. This proves it." Others defended Henry, but one poster suggested Henry's endorsement of Obama indicates he's lost touch with Democrats across the state.

Another Democrat, a consultant to his party's candidates, argues that Henry's a genius and explains: "...endorsing Barack Obama is dangerous politically in a red or purple state, but it comes with huge cash advantages. The Clintons have never been ones to spread their fundraising success around, but Obama has. Win or lose, supporting him is a wise investment. He will still be a star in the party and of the liberal netroots, and he isn't going anywhere. If he is the president, a senator or runs for governor of Illinois, he'll still be able to raise money for future candidates. In a state like ours the kind of money he could raise is unmatched by any mechanism the GOP currently has. Would a future candidate Henry get attacked for endorsing Obama and even taking liberal money? Sure, but if it raises him millions more than his opponents, who will do the telling? I'm not saying I would have done the same, but there is yet another argument for the 'genius' category."

A veteran Democrat observer at the Capitol offers these thoughts: "Henry is still a force to be reckoned with in any corner of the state. I’d disagree with the legislator – Henry’s much more engaged in legislative races than he was last cycle. One could make the argument that the race is over, we aren’t accomplishing anything with the infighting and Henry is just trying to help turn the page. I’d also argue that his abortion vote is consistent with his record given there was no exception for rape and incest."

Henry's endorsement, to some, seems to echo the dilemma facing other Democratic superdelegates across the country: Express your personal preference, or declare for the candidate who carried your state? In Henry's case, he chose the first course and if all the undeclared superdelegates who remain chose the personal preference course and give the nomination to Clinton despite the national numbers that show Obama the leader, there could be chaos. As it stands now, Henry is in step with Obama's numbers nationally but not in Oklahoma.

Last week's Sooner Survey analysis of Obama's candidacy in Oklahoma has special resonance given Henry's endorsement and the concerns it has generated. Here's the relevant part of the analysis, by pollster Pat McFerron: "Given Obama’s performance, it is difficult to imagine that Oklahoma Democrats who have any tie to him will be successful. The best comparison here is likely with the other Clinton, former President Bill. In our Sooner Survey of April 1994, we released numbers showing President Clinton with a favorable rating of 41% and a negative of 52%. Obama is a net 11 points worse than that today. As historians will recall, Dave McCurdy (who had publicly endorsed Clinton) suffered a defeat in the U.S. Senate contest, while Republicans Frank Lucas, Tom Coburn and J.C. Watts won congressional seats in areas previously held by Democrats. In addition, most statewide offices went Republican, and the GOP picked up legislative seats. Given the Bill Clinton precedent, Democrats in Oklahoma could be headed for a rocky 2008 election cycle, reminiscent of 1994. The only solace for many Democrats may be that this is not an election year in which constitutional offices (except for Corporation Commissioner) are being contested."

Whatever the case, and whatever the implications of the historic comparison of Obama to Bill Clinton in 1994, Henry's veto of the anti-abortion bill and his endorsement of Obama show he clearly is marching to the beat of a drum many of his fellow Oklahoma Democrats don't hear.

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