Jim McGoodwin: Six Reasons Why Barack Obama Will Get The Democratic Nomination Over Hillary Clinton
By Jim McGoodwin, Posting At Democrats Of Oklahoma Community Forum ~ 1. He's the most skilled politician in my lifetime; even better than Bill Clinton. He's as adept with the issues and media as BC, but he has a sense of integrity. He also has the greatest ability to raise money of any politician I've ever seen. Finally, he has the best ground game of any Presidential candidate in my memory (since at least 1972). He has been able to organize and effectively direct volunteers around the country better than anyone ever has.
2. Clinton can't beat him on the key issue of change. He clearly represents a clear change TO something positive and uplifting not just from George II. Clinton only offers a change from George II to the politics of the 90s.
3. Clinton can't attack him. Her whole "lack of experience" attack merely reinforces the fact that she represents a return to the past. If she tries any attack that's personal or distorts the facts, as BC tried in South Carolina, it will only redound to her discredit; again reminding of all the negative things the Clinton's represent.
4. She took her best shot and lost. The game plan was for her to put any opponent away on Tsunami Tuesday and she failed. Her campaign sent out the word a day or two before Tsunami Tuesday that they expected to win every state except Illinois. They didn't. She's out of money and her aura of invincibility is gone. That means that a lot of people who feared the Clinton's rath will feel more willing to help Obama.
5. Obama is the strongest candidate to win in the general election and this will generate additional support now that he's demonstrated that he is more than viable. Clinton has a cap on how many votes she can get and it's pretty low. Various polls have shown that she has a negative rating in the upper 40% range; that make it hard for her to win a general election. Conversely, Obama appeals to Independents and moderate Republicans with some conservative Republicans saying they would vote for Obama over McCain.
6. The calendar will allow Obama to develop a sense of inevitability. This weekend he's highly likely to win Louisianna, Nebraska, Washington and possibly Maine.That will give him momentum for Tuesday for the Potomac primary, Maryland, Virginia and D.C., all of which he should win by large margins. Those wins will put him clearly ahead of Clinton in the delegate count and help him raise more money while increasing the drag on Clinton's fundraising efforts.
The calendar gives Obama another huge asset: time, which is a luxury he didn't have on Tuesday. The short history of this campaign shows that the better people get to know him, to see him, to hear him, the more they like him and the more likely they are to vote for him. By the time Texas and Ohio vote Clinton will look like a losing proposition; Obama will have been able to spend time campaigning in those states and should have enough money to campaign effectively.
This process will reach a tipping point where Obama's margins of victory and numbers of delegates will grow. It will reach a point that even if he doesn't have a clear majority of the delegates, the super delegates will see the writing on the wall and begin declaring their support, eliminating any possibility of a brokered convention. Super delegates in red states will prefer to have him on the ballot to avoid a Clinton, down-ticket drag.
I've been involved in Democratic Party and Presidential politics since 1972; been to many conventions, run Presidential campaigns locally, campaigned in Iowa and worked in DC as a part of a candidate's national fundraising effort.
Having said all this I have to say that I don't dislike Hillary and would be glad to support her for President. It's just not going to happen.
Note: Jim McGoodwin, as he notes, has been involved in Democrat politics in Oklahoma and elsewhere for 35 years and is considered by many one of the most astute observers of his party's tendencies. McGoodwin is deputy director of operations for the Office of State Finance and previously served as deputy state auditor and inspector. He has been a delegate to several Democratic National Conventions.
2. Clinton can't beat him on the key issue of change. He clearly represents a clear change TO something positive and uplifting not just from George II. Clinton only offers a change from George II to the politics of the 90s.
3. Clinton can't attack him. Her whole "lack of experience" attack merely reinforces the fact that she represents a return to the past. If she tries any attack that's personal or distorts the facts, as BC tried in South Carolina, it will only redound to her discredit; again reminding of all the negative things the Clinton's represent.
4. She took her best shot and lost. The game plan was for her to put any opponent away on Tsunami Tuesday and she failed. Her campaign sent out the word a day or two before Tsunami Tuesday that they expected to win every state except Illinois. They didn't. She's out of money and her aura of invincibility is gone. That means that a lot of people who feared the Clinton's rath will feel more willing to help Obama.
5. Obama is the strongest candidate to win in the general election and this will generate additional support now that he's demonstrated that he is more than viable. Clinton has a cap on how many votes she can get and it's pretty low. Various polls have shown that she has a negative rating in the upper 40% range; that make it hard for her to win a general election. Conversely, Obama appeals to Independents and moderate Republicans with some conservative Republicans saying they would vote for Obama over McCain.
6. The calendar will allow Obama to develop a sense of inevitability. This weekend he's highly likely to win Louisianna, Nebraska, Washington and possibly Maine.That will give him momentum for Tuesday for the Potomac primary, Maryland, Virginia and D.C., all of which he should win by large margins. Those wins will put him clearly ahead of Clinton in the delegate count and help him raise more money while increasing the drag on Clinton's fundraising efforts.
The calendar gives Obama another huge asset: time, which is a luxury he didn't have on Tuesday. The short history of this campaign shows that the better people get to know him, to see him, to hear him, the more they like him and the more likely they are to vote for him. By the time Texas and Ohio vote Clinton will look like a losing proposition; Obama will have been able to spend time campaigning in those states and should have enough money to campaign effectively.
This process will reach a tipping point where Obama's margins of victory and numbers of delegates will grow. It will reach a point that even if he doesn't have a clear majority of the delegates, the super delegates will see the writing on the wall and begin declaring their support, eliminating any possibility of a brokered convention. Super delegates in red states will prefer to have him on the ballot to avoid a Clinton, down-ticket drag.
I've been involved in Democratic Party and Presidential politics since 1972; been to many conventions, run Presidential campaigns locally, campaigned in Iowa and worked in DC as a part of a candidate's national fundraising effort.
Having said all this I have to say that I don't dislike Hillary and would be glad to support her for President. It's just not going to happen.
Note: Jim McGoodwin, as he notes, has been involved in Democrat politics in Oklahoma and elsewhere for 35 years and is considered by many one of the most astute observers of his party's tendencies. McGoodwin is deputy director of operations for the Office of State Finance and previously served as deputy state auditor and inspector. He has been a delegate to several Democratic National Conventions.
Labels: Jim McGoodwin
posted by Mike McCarville @ 9:16 AM
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