House Speaker Candidates Jockey As GOP Seeks Smooth Transition In Top Leadership Post

The race for speaker of the Oklahoma House may boil down to which of the candidates can make the most seamless and smooth transition, create confidence, and help ease concern about the resignation of Lance Cargill, Republican insiders believe.

An Analysis By Mike McCarville

As of this writing, it appears the two leaders for the speaker's post are Speaker Pro Tem Gus Blackwell of Goodwell and Susan Winchester of Chickasha. They are said by some to be the front-runners, ahead of Dale DeWitt of Braman and John Wright of Broken Arrow.

It now appears, one insider said, that there are two solid camps. "One group will push for Susan and one for Gus," the insider said. "Dale DeWitt may be a player as well but will likely support one of the other two. John Wright has made it known he is in the race but, nice guy though he is, he won't have significant support."

The insider added that, "The outsiders will want a substantial change of direction and the insiders will want the status quo, which includes putting Gus in the seat. Gus is a good guy, respected by many, but may be elected principally as the smooth transition figure."

One former House member predicts, "Gus will win." And he added, noting that Winchester was a previous candidate for speaker: "Susan is still extremely sour/bitter about losing last time and I fear if elected she would be very vindictive. Gus would be a much better speaker and will take care of rural western Oklahoma. Besides, I'm pretty confident he has the votes already lined up."

One respected Capitol observer said Winchester may have ground to make up with other GOP members after the result of her previous race for the seat: "Susan has a lot of making up to do due to her having disenfranchised herself from the caucus."

A House staffer privy to discussion among members said he believes the race is "really close" between Blackwell and Winchester, but he doesn't rule out DeWitt's strength. "You get into these things, you just never know," he said. "And we've still got days to go until the vote will be taken, so it can change."

Another insider believes Blackwell will be the eventual choice, but notes that Winchester presents "a more polished appearance" than Blackwell, a factor also mentioned by another, who said Blackwell sometimes looks like "he can't find a suit to fit him."

They also note that Blackwell is from a rural area, the Panhandle, and Winchester is from a more urban area, Chickasha, and the perception might be that she has a better grip on some issues as a result.

A Winchester strength might be the perception that she would be a better Republican fundraiser than Blackwell. "Susan can (raise money)," one insider said. "I am not sure about Gus in that role."

Both, this insider believes, would avoid "serious trouble" and both would bring "respect and integrity" to the post.

Winchester served as speaker pro tem under former House Speaker Todd Hiett, the same position that Blackwell now holds. Winchester said she is seeking fellow Republicans' support "and I would ask the Democratic members as well to expedite the leadership transition so we may begin the session united and ready to do the people's business."

Rep. Danny Morgan, the minority leader of House Democrats, said Winchester is "the only candidate that we are aware of who has extended her hand across the aisle." Morgan, D-Prague, said, however, that DeWitt is "very respected" among Democrats. DeWitt, R-Braman, represents four rural counties.

"Don't be surprised if you see Gus as speaker and Susan, or maybe DeWitt, as pro tem with another election after session or in the fall," he added. "I think it is most likely we will see a compromise rather than a bloodshed event if cooler heads prevail."

A House member who said he is undecided about which candidate he'll support said he respects both Blackwell and Winchester and likes Winchester's "touch" on most issues.

"She's handled herself very well and is doggone smart." He said Blackwell has "some baggage" but has support the member believes is equal to, or better than, Winchester's support.

"Susan is smart, polished, a sharp business individual with investments and looks the part," one of the insiders said. "She would put the better face on the role. It may be having Gus in charge and Susan as the public speaker and business contact would work to both their strengths."

Winchester's receiving support from some outside the Legislature. Blogger Jean Warner writes on her Oklahoma Women's Network Blog, "Call your State Representative and tell him or her that Winchester would be a GREAT Speaker."

Mike McCarville has covered Oklahoma politics and government since he became State Capitol Correspondent for The Tulsa Tribune in 1966. Since, he has been a governor's press secretary, investigative reporter, television station news executive, radio station program director and talk show host, and political consultant. In 1980, he founded The McCarville Report and it is the nation's longest-running state political publication. In its online version, it has been called "The best political blog" by Dr. Keith Gaddie, pollster and pundit and "Oklahoma's venerable McCarville Report" by The Arkansas Times. McCarville is also a real estate investor and commentator for the National Rifle Association on NRANews.com and Sirius Satellite Radio.

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