Cook: Fred Thompson 'Is Hot'

National Journal's Charlie Cook on MSNBC ~ No question, (Fred) Thompson is hot. Whether he can keep this momentum up and the expectations in check once he actually enters the race is a good question, but his rise is having a devastating impact on (Rudy) Giuliani and (John) McCain.

To be sure, Thompson and his campaign have a lot of organizational spadework ahead of them, building an infrastructure that other campaigns built months go. But, catching up organizationally is a lot easier when your polls are headed up than when they are headed south.

The Thompson folks have a terrific opportunity here; let's see if they can capitalize on it.

While former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's upward movement in the polls isn't nearly as great as Thompson's, it is steady. He raised an extraordinary amount of money in the first quarter and he has, along with McCain, the only full-scale campaign infrastructure on the GOP side.

Arguably only the campaigns of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., McCain and Romney have world-class political teams. While Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., and Giuliani each have some top-notch, "any campaign would love to have them" people in key places, they don't have the number or depth of first-rate talent on board that the first three do.

Romney raised a ton of money in the first quarter, but spent a big chunk of it on television in early states. He has now seen that turn into advantages in Iowa and New Hampshire that are leaving the Giuliani and McCain campaigns with their mouths agape.

Thompson needs to use his momentum to build what Romney already has.

While former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) has gotten favorable notices on the trail, he doesn't have the campaign behind him to capitalize on it and none of the other third-tier candidates appear even close to catching on.

If I were a betting man, my money for the GOP nod would be on either Romney or Thompson.

Read Cook's entire article by clicking on the headline "The Ripple Effect" on our news ticker on the right side of this page.

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