The Coming Storm: 2010 Governor's Race

Mary Fallin is in.

Randy Brogdon is in.

J. C. Watts may be in (many suspect he will be) and more Republicans may join this trio in the GOP primary for governor next year.

Analysis By Mike McCarville

Jari Askins is in.

Drew Edmondson is in.

Is Scott Meacham in the Democratic primary race? And will other Democrats get into the primary?

It's a scenario for a political storm unlike any in recent memory: A sitting member of Congress (and the former lieutenant governor). The sitting lieutenant governor (and a former State House member). The sitting attorney general. A state senator. Perhaps a former member of Congress (and member of the Corporation Commission) and perhaps the sitting state treasurer.

Of these six announced and possible candidates, five have been on the statewide ballot before: Askins, Edmondson, Fallin, Meacham and Watts.

Meacham won election in 2006 after being brought to the Capitol by Governor Brad Henry as state finance director in his first term and subsequently appointed treasurer by Henry.

Brogdon has limited electoral history other than in his Owasso senatorial district, but he's a familiar face at GOP functions and has built alliances with party officials and workers.

On the Democrat side, Askins was the first officially in, sending a clear signal she's ready to use whatever of her personal exchequer she needs to help finance a move up the political ladder and she proved in her race for lieutenant governor that she's a tireless, effective campaigner and vote-getter.

An Askins-Edmondson primary would generate large expenditures, most believe. Some observers say this could be a race to remember, as Edmondson reaches for the brass ring to cap a long career in public office and top off his family legacy of elective office.

A GOP primary with Brogdon, Fallin and Watts also could be a benchmark. Some party officials and workers believe it could be a race that will split the party; Brogdon is appreciated by arch-conservatives, Fallin by conservatives and moderates and Watts by conservatives who like the idea of helping elect a black Republican.

Fallin clearly is the early favorite. Watts hasn't been on the statewide ballot in years, has not had much of a real presence in the state since he left Congress and angered some Republicans with his near-endorsement of Barack Obama in the presidential race and some of his statements about the GOP since. Brogdon's name identification statewide is nowhere near that of either Fallin or Watts, and whether he could raise enough money to change that given the star power of Fallin and Watts is an open question.

Some of Fallin's supporters argue that "it's her turn." They believe that Fallin was talked out of the 2002 governor's race in favor of Steve Largent and the same forces who influenced her then are now behind Watts. Further, they say, the stumbling Largent campaign gave underdog Democrat Brad Henry the governor's office. Others argue it was the presence of Independent Gary Richardson in the 2002 race that helped elect Henry. There's probably truth in both beliefs.

While the final fields on both sides are far from set, the major players with the possible exception of Watts and Meacham appear to have their sails in the political wind. The question, as always, is which of them will catch the wind and ride it into the governor's office.

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