Is Henry's Approval Rating Starting To Slip?

By Pat McFerron, Sooner Survey ~There is no argument that Brad Henry remains very popular in the Sooner State (73% favorable vs. 17% unfavorable), but the legislative session may be taking a toll. His favorable is actually down four points and his negative up by four points since our January study (77% favorable vs. 13% unfavorable).

There is also movement at the extremes, as his strongly favorable is down nine points (45% in January, 36% today).

The overall net eight-point movement is driven along demographic and partisan splits. The greatest movement has occurred among self-described “very conservatives” and registered Republicans.

While the movement is not yet near the tipping point, it must be welcomed by Republicans who are coming off an election year in which, for the first time ever, a Republican nominee for Governor failed to get a greater percentage of the vote than the percentage of voters who are registered as Republicans.

For Republican candidates in 2008, motivating and reconstituting the base are two of the most important developments. It appears that this is beginning to take shape in the Sooner State.

Of perhaps greatest concern to Henry and his supporters should be the change in attitude about the direction of the state. In just three months, the percentage of Oklahomans believing the state is headed in the right direction has declined by 13 points, while those thinking it is going on the wrong track have increased by an identical number. While more than half of Oklahomans (52%) are still optimistic, it is significantly lower than the 65% we saw in January. In addition, those upset about the direction of the state give Henry much lower numbers (57% favorable vs. 29% unfavorable) than do those who are pleased with the direction of the state (82% favorable vs. 11% unfavorable). Women are more concerned about the direction of the state (47% right track vs. 37% wrong track) than are men (58% right track vs. 26% wrong track).

Brad Henry vetoed a budget agreement that was supported by both Republicans and Democrats, including both the Republican and Democrat leaders of the State Senate.
Greatly improves opinion 8%, Somewhat improves opinion 17%, Somewhat worsens opinion 21%, Greatly worsens opinion 13%, Do not know(vol.) 41%.

The last budget Brad Henry sent to the legislature does not balance because official tax revenue estimates have been revised. Since that time Henry has publicly refused to send a revised budget to the legislature and instead has vetoed the agreements that have been sent to him.
Greatly improves opinion 9%, Somewhat improves opinion 13%, Somewhat worsens opinion 33%, Greatly worsens opinion 16%, Do not know (vol.) 29%.

Pat McFerron (pictured above right) is director of the respected Sooner Survey conducted by Cole Hargrave Snodgrass And Associates.

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