Did Henry 'Comfort Level' Help Down-Ticket Democrats Win This Election Year?
There's evidence today that Governor Brad Henry's huge approval rating, described by some as the "comfort level" voters had with him, helped other statewide Democrats win their campaigns this year.
The evidence comes in an examination of the number of straight party votes that were cast in the November 7th elections, and it indicates to those of us who analyze such things that an argument can be made, in part, that Democrats Lloyd Fields, Jeff McMahan and Kim Holland could owe part of their victory margins over Republican opponents to Henry's overwhelming margin over Congressman Ernest Istook. Moreover, Democrat David Prater well could owe his upset of incumbent Oklahoma County District Attorney Wes Lane to the "stamp the rooster" voters satisfied with Henry at the top of the ticket.
Fields and Prater narrowly defeated their opponents; Fields edged out incumbent Labor Commissioner Brenda Reneau, Prater squeaked by Lane and McMahan withstood the challenge of Gary Jones for auditor & inspector. Insurance Commissioner Holland posted a more substantial win over challenger Bill Case, but much of her margin could have come from Democrat straight party voters who, comfortable with Henry, simply connected the rooster arrow on their ballots.
State Election Board statistics show that there were 339,685 straight party votes on November 7th; 197,185 of them were by Democrats, 142,500 by Republicans. For the Democrats, that's an advantage of 55,685 and, significantly, it is 16,000 more straight party votes than were cast by Democrats in 2002.
That plus-16,000 would more than account for Prater's razor-thin 824 vote margin over Lane in Oklahoma County, Fields' 2,726 vote win over Reneau and provide a substantial part of the margins posted by McMahan over Jones (30,533 votes) and Holland over Case (37,140 votes).
The impact of straight party voting in the Prater-Lane race is clearly shown in the Oklahoma County totals; Democrats connected the straight party arrow 33,897 times, while Republicans connected the straight party arrow 26,587 times, a Democrat advantage of 7,310 in a county that generally supports GOP candidates but has a history of "pick the best candidate" voting.
Oklahoma County this time around went heavily for Henry and gave margins to Attorney General Drew Edmondson, Treasurer Scott Mecham, and School Superintendent Sandy Garrett, all Democrats. The county also went for Republicans Reneau, Todd Hiett (barely), Case (barely), Corporation Commissioner Bob Anthony, and went with Lt. Governor Mary Fallin over Democrat Dr. David Hunter in the 5th District congressional race by a margin of about 37,000 votes. The conclusion could be that while many voters split their tickets, general satisfaction with Henry and other statewide Democrats in the capital county was obvious.
With 926,462 ballots cast in the governor's race, the number of Democrat straight party votes equates to slightly more than 21 percent of the votes cast in that race.
The evidence comes in an examination of the number of straight party votes that were cast in the November 7th elections, and it indicates to those of us who analyze such things that an argument can be made, in part, that Democrats Lloyd Fields, Jeff McMahan and Kim Holland could owe part of their victory margins over Republican opponents to Henry's overwhelming margin over Congressman Ernest Istook. Moreover, Democrat David Prater well could owe his upset of incumbent Oklahoma County District Attorney Wes Lane to the "stamp the rooster" voters satisfied with Henry at the top of the ticket.
Fields and Prater narrowly defeated their opponents; Fields edged out incumbent Labor Commissioner Brenda Reneau, Prater squeaked by Lane and McMahan withstood the challenge of Gary Jones for auditor & inspector. Insurance Commissioner Holland posted a more substantial win over challenger Bill Case, but much of her margin could have come from Democrat straight party voters who, comfortable with Henry, simply connected the rooster arrow on their ballots.
State Election Board statistics show that there were 339,685 straight party votes on November 7th; 197,185 of them were by Democrats, 142,500 by Republicans. For the Democrats, that's an advantage of 55,685 and, significantly, it is 16,000 more straight party votes than were cast by Democrats in 2002.
That plus-16,000 would more than account for Prater's razor-thin 824 vote margin over Lane in Oklahoma County, Fields' 2,726 vote win over Reneau and provide a substantial part of the margins posted by McMahan over Jones (30,533 votes) and Holland over Case (37,140 votes).
The impact of straight party voting in the Prater-Lane race is clearly shown in the Oklahoma County totals; Democrats connected the straight party arrow 33,897 times, while Republicans connected the straight party arrow 26,587 times, a Democrat advantage of 7,310 in a county that generally supports GOP candidates but has a history of "pick the best candidate" voting.
Oklahoma County this time around went heavily for Henry and gave margins to Attorney General Drew Edmondson, Treasurer Scott Mecham, and School Superintendent Sandy Garrett, all Democrats. The county also went for Republicans Reneau, Todd Hiett (barely), Case (barely), Corporation Commissioner Bob Anthony, and went with Lt. Governor Mary Fallin over Democrat Dr. David Hunter in the 5th District congressional race by a margin of about 37,000 votes. The conclusion could be that while many voters split their tickets, general satisfaction with Henry and other statewide Democrats in the capital county was obvious.
With 926,462 ballots cast in the governor's race, the number of Democrat straight party votes equates to slightly more than 21 percent of the votes cast in that race.
Labels: Politics/Elections
posted by Mike McCarville @ 5:52 AM
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