Counties To Watch Tonight In A&I Race

Six counties of Oklahoma's 77 likely will determine whether Republican Gary Jones unseats incumbent Auditor & Inspector Jeff McMahan in today's voting.

Our analysis of the 2002 election returns, in which McMahan defeated Jones by 28,779 votes, 516,425 to 487,6464 (a total of 1,004,071 votes cast), shows McMahan lost the six counties we've studied 213,243 to Jones' 247,651, or a 53.7-46.3 percent Jones advantage. If the voter turnoff drops to 900,000 (as predicted by Election Board Secretary Mike Clingman), and if newspaper editorial endorsements mean anything, Jones needs to increase his margin in those six counties just slightly to win. That assumes the vote percentages in other counties remain about the same (which they won't).

CARTER COUNTY - McMahan carried it 7,162 to 5,859 in 2002. The Daily Ardmoreite endorsed Jones this time around, noting McMahan's connections to the southeastern Oklahoma cabal of Steve Phipps and Gene Stipe and their abstract company empire, now subject of a civil lawsuit between the two as a Federal Bureau of Investigation probe continues. The editorial said McMahan's "integrity has been compromised by some unethical dealings...." Can Jones break even with McMahan here?

CLEVELAND COUNTY - Jones carried it 33,299 to 29,893. The Norman Transcript endorsed Jones and the county now has more Republican voters than it did four years ago. Can Jones add a thousand or two thousand more votes to his margin?

MUSKOGEE COUNTY - It was big for McMahan in 2002; he beat Jones 12,854 to 6,897, almost a fourth of McMahan's victory margin. The Muskogee Daily Phoenix endorsed Jones this time, noting McMahan's involvement with Stipe and Phipps, saying McMahan is "entwined in a big state scandal" as a result. Can Jones cut McMahan's win in the county in half?

OKLAHOMA COUNTY - Jones carried it 95,677 to 86,779 votes for McMahan. Most observers believe Jones will increase that margin substantially in today's voting.

STEPHENS COUNTY - McMahan carried it, 7,335 to 6,543. The Duncan Banner endorsed Jones. Can Jones break even with McMahan as a result? An expected huge Democrat turnout for hometown girl Jari Askins in the lieutenant governor's race may help McMahan.

TULSA COUNTY - Jones drubbed McMahan in 2002, 99,376 to 69,220, a margin of more than 30,000 votes. Can he do it again, or even increase his margin? If Jones is to win, he must march out of Tulsa County with a margin of at least 29,000 votes by our calculations, all other things being equal.

Bottom Line: A switch of just 14,000 votes in these six counties makes Jones the winner. Elections always produce surprises, but based on our study, these six counties hold the keys to which candidate has a victory party tonight.

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