SoonerPoll Shows Democrats Lead In Five Key Oklahoma State Senate Races; Coffee Protests

A Special Report By Dr. Keith Gaddie (Upated By Mike McCarville) ~ The Tulsa World and KOTV-Channel 6 have released the results of the latest SoonerPoll.com, conducted by Shapard Research of Oklahoma City. The results show Democrats leading in the five Senate races considered key to Republican efforts to take control of the Senate this year. Polling was conducted October 18-21.

SoonerPoll.com contacted leading Democrats and Republicans and political observers to identify the five races deemed most competitive. In all five, Democrats lead by fairly sizeable margins, indicating a big year for Democrats should these numbers hold.

Senate Minority Leader Glenn Coffee said the polls are "old news."

The results, with the margin of error calculated at +/-5.3 percent, with 335 interviews:

Senate District 2, Democrat Sean Burrage versus Republican Amy Shaffer. Democrat 48.7%, Republican 39.2%, Undecided 12.2%. The Oklahoman endorsed Shaffer on Friday morning.

Senate District 12, Democrat John Mark Young versus Republican Brian Bingman. Democrat 46.7%, Republican 38.9%, Undecided 14.7%. The Tulsa World and The Oklahoman have endorsed Bingman.

Senate District 16, Democrat John Sparks versus Republican Ron Davis. Democrat 51.7%, Republican 37.7%, Undecided 13.0%.

Senate District 18, Democrat Senator Mary Easley versus Republican Mark Wofford. Democrat 49.5%, Republican 37.7%, Undecided 12.9%.

Senate District 26, Democrat Tom Ivester versus Republican Todd Russ. Democrat 56.5%, Republican 31.5%, Undecided 12%.

From the World: "The undecided numbers do seem like a lot," said poll consultant Al Soltow, vice president for research at the University of Tulsa. "Two weeks out from the election, they range from 12 percent to 16 percent. The question I have is, how many of those who say they're undecided at this late date will vote at all?"

Coffee said the polls are "old news" and do not reflect GOP momentum in several key state Senate races. "Attack ads launched this week by an East Coast liberal group (The Democrat Legislative Campaign Committee/DLCC) proves that Democrats are worried about losing their majority in the Oklahoma Senate," he said. "These polls are old news - about 10 days old, in fact. They don't reflect the current reality on the ground, which is that Republicans have gained momentum in our key races," Coffee said.

"Our plan is to win three or more seats on election day, not to be ahead in a newspaper poll taken three weeks before the election. I strongly believe that our strategy is working, and that voters in these districts are on track to make history by electing the first-ever Republican majority in the state Senate," he said.

Coffee questioned why the Tulsa World did not release polling data for Senate District 24, where one of the Democrats' most vulnerable incumbents, Daisy Lawler, is in big trouble in her race against Republican challenger Anthony Sykes.

"Daisy Lawler and her liberal East Coast friends from the DLCC are already spending tens of thousands of dollars on attack ads to prop up Daisy's failing campaign. This is evidence that Daisy Lawler is in huge trouble in this conservative district, which doesn't like her liberal voting record - from giving in-state tuition and scholarships to illegal immigrants to voting to block an amendment to immediately eliminate the death tax," Coffee stated.

In Senate District 18, Coffee said an attack ad launched by incumbent Mary Easley and the DLCC is backfiring.

"We're seeing significant Democrat voters moving toward Republican Mark Wofford because of these misleading attacks. The Wofford campaign has already received dozens of calls of support from Democrat voters who can't believe that Mary Easley is attacking Wofford and fibbing about her own liberal record on illegal immigraton," Coffee said.

Coffee said that in Senate District 12, trial lawyer John Mark Young has stooped to attacking Brain Bingman's character, and is hiding from his own record as a trial lawyer of representing some of Creek County's worst criminals. "Democrats were caught off guard by U.S. Senator Tom Coburn's TV ad supporting Republican Brian Bingman, so now the Young campaign has brought in a group of Washington, DC, liberals backed by Hillary Clinton and Howard Dean to falsely attack Brian Bingman's character," Coffee said.

In Senate District 2, trial Lawyer Sean Burrage is trying to hang on to a razor-thin lead that is shrinking daily, Coffee said. "Despite spending half-a-million dollars donated by power-hungry trial lawyers, Sean Burrage's campaign is gasping for air. He has spent a fortune on TV ads, yet our internal polling shows he hasn't moved an inch in weeks and is actually losing ground to Republican Ami Shaffer," Coffee said. "Ami Shaffer has soundly defeated Sean Burrage in every debate, and the average Democrat voter is shifting away from Burrage, who is the powerful politicians' choice, and moving toward the people's choice, Ami Shaffer."

Coffee said there is also an indication that Republicans are picking up momentum in several other Democrat-held districts: Senate District 26, where Republican Todd Russ is facing trial lawyer Tom Ivester; Senate District 16, where Republican Ron Davis is running against liberal John Sparks; and Senate District 32, where Democrat incumbent Randy Bass is being challenged by Lt. Col. (ret.) Ed Petersen.

Owen Shackelford, executive director of Oklahoma State Senate Democrats, responded, "I find it interesting that while Senator Coffee questioned the legitimacy of the polling data released by the Tulsa World, he didn't question the truthfulness of the ads being aired by the DLCC. I guess he's conceded that what they say is correct. Glenn Coffee, Ernest Istook, and Todd Hiett are on the same sinking ship, and they'll do or say anything at this point to try and save themselves."

Pollster and pundit Dr. Keith Gaddie is a partner in TvPoll.com with Bill Shapard. He is the co-host of the "Tailgate Political Hour" on KTLR-890AM in Oklahoma City and is often quoted as an elections expert.

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