Poll Expert Dismisses Automated Poll Results

A nationally-recognized polling expert, Keith Nicholls of USA Polling Group at the University of South Alabama in Mobile, says that automated polls, or those taken via "robo calls" as opposed to live interviewers, "typically aren't worth the paper they're not written on." The accuracy of such polls is under discussion among some Oklahoma pollsters after Rasmussen Reports earlier this week issued a poll taken in the Oklahoma governor's race showing Governor Brad Henry at 54 percent and his challenger, Republican Congressman Ernest Istook, at 33 percent. One Oklahoma pollster told TMRO that such polls are "eschewed by most mainstream survey researchers." Some in Istook's camp were angered by release of the poll, which they said privately "is less than worthless." Other firms, notably SurveyUSA, use the "IVR," or automated, system of conducting polls. SurveyUSA conducts its Oklahoma polls for Oklahoma City television station KFOR-Channel 4. The firm claims it was "the most accurate polling firm during the presidential election...." Its August 28th poll in the governor's race had Henry at 60 percent and Istook at 34 percent. A new Oklahoma polling firm, TvPoll, also uses automated calls and notes that it does so, saying its methods meet those required by the American Association for Public Opinion Research. Nicholls said that USA Polling Group does not use the IVR system and "we do not believe such systems have any legitimate role to play in public opinion polling." He said his entity conducts only "person-to-person public opinion polls by telephone...." Nicholls said he spoke out because USA Polling Group sometimes is confused with SurveyUSA and "we have received numerous complaints demanding that we cease and desist." And he added, "We respond to each of these complaints, assuring the complainant that we are not to blame." The influence of Rasmussen Reports and SurveyUSA is considerable; both maintain heavily-trafficked websites. Rasmussen Reports claims 1.8 million daily page views.

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