Do Republicans Plan 'October Surprise' In Quest To Take Control Of State Senate?

Oklahoma Republicans may have a series of October surprises in their quest to take control of the State Senate this year with help from a powerful source: The White House. A Washington source tells The McCarville Report Online that while plans are in the discussion stage and nothing apparently is yet firm, these events are possible to help GOP candidates in at least five Senate races where state party officials believe their candidates can win and thus give them control of the Senate:

(1) Recorded calls from President Bush; "robocalls" from the president were used to help Senator Mike Schulz win his contest with Democrat Robbie Kerr earlier this year, a win that took a seat away from Democrats. The seat had been held by Kerr's late husband, Robert Kerr. The calls seem the most likely to occur of what's being discussed.

(2) Possible fundraiser appearances by administration officials; the speculation ranges from presidential adviser Karl Rove to Vice President Cheney to others. The source said he doubts a visit by the vice president is in the works, "but this could be a historic win (Republicans taking control of the State Senate for the first time) and right now, the White House is looking for political wins. That's what gives wings to all this talk in the first place." However, with Rove scheduled into Oklahoma for Istook (see story this page), it seems unlikely he'd be back for any other reason.

(3) Possible visits by top GOP members of Congress. Again, the historic nature was cited as a reason for the interest when members of Congress might otherwise have little interest in campaigning for state legislative candidates.

There are six Senate races now on radar screens, one of them added recently because of the bitter end of the runoff for the Democratic nomination. That is the Senate District 16 race in Cleveland County, where Democratic nominee John Sparks has been accused of waging a nasty smear campaign to defeat runoff opponent Tim Emrich by just 76 votes. Emrich, after his loss, said he wasn't sure his supporters would support Sparks and some of them went public with a blast at Sparks. The Republican nominee is Ron Davis, a Purcell businessman. Party Chairman Tom Daxon said earlier the race was not considered a key one, but now "Ron Davis is putting himself in a position to win and he has the full support of the Oklahoma Republican Party."

The other five Senate races on the top of most lists are these: District 2, where Claremore businesswoman Ami Shaffer faces Democrat Sean Burrage, an attorney in outgoing Senator Stratton Taylor's law firm; District 12, where Rep. Brian Bingman of Sapulpa faces the Democrat he defeated for the House seat two years ago, John Young; District 18, where Republican Mark Wofford is challenging Senator Mary Easley in the Tulsa district; District 24, which stretches from Moore to Duncan, where Republican Anthony Sykes of Moore seeks to oust Democrat Daisy Lawler of Comanche; and District 26 in southwestern Oklahoma, where Republican Todd Russ is battling Democrat Tom Ivester in an open seat race.

A well-placed Oklahoma City source said he believes the Bush robocalls are possible, but doubts that any top administration officials will come into the state to actually campaign for the party's State Senate candidates.

Another Oklahoma City GOP consultant agreed that the Bush calls probably will happen, and possibly there will be recorded calls from others, but also doubted any officials will campaign in the state for the Senate candidates. "I've heard the talk, too, and I know the visits are on wish lists. I just don't think they will happen," the consultant said.

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