Keith Gaddie: State Senate Looks A Little Better Every Day For The D's

In the overall, the battle for control of the Oklahoma State Senate may be the most important event of election year 2006. Republicans are optimistic they can take control, just like they took control of the House in 2004. Their optimism faded somewhat when Senator Nancy Riley, fresh off her loss in the race for the GOP nomination for lieutenant governor, bolted the party and became a Democrat; that made the Senate count 26-22 instead of the 25-23 GOP leaders had been counting on. Nonetheless, even in private, those same leaders say they are confident they will win the Senate for the first time in history. They key on four, possibly five, Senate races they believe could give them control of the Senate.

But there are other factors now at work, chief among them the belief by many Democrats that their governor, Brad Henry, is likely to win reelection over Republican challenger Ernest Istook and provide "coattails" for Democratic legislative candidates. They say that Henry has enthusiastic support across the state and that will help their local candidates. The whole question of coattails is one political scientists, consultants and candidates have debated for years. Some swear it occurs, others say it doesn't. Sometimes it's obvious; the 1972 Dewey Bartlett-Ed Edmondson Senate race, for example, when Democrats ran from George McGovern and stayed home or voted for Richard Nixon and Republican Bartlett on election day. In 2004, year of the GOP takeover of the State House, some believe George W. Bush provided coattails for legislative candidates of his party. Keith Gaddie, University of Oklahoma professor of political science, author, observer and pollster, says, "There likely were some Bush coattails. The way they work is by turning out voters who might otherwise not have voted, and they might have 'pulled the elephant' all the way down." So, we asked Gaddie, could Brad Henry have coattails for Democrats if he wins reelection? "Henry could have some small coats, but more than likely what Republicans suffer from is having to make up ballots among people who decide not to show up. The D's seem pretty fired up. Still, it will be tough for the GOP to lose the House, but the Senate looks a little better every day for the D's."

If Democrats do manage to stave off the surging GOP electoral legislative victories (Mike Schulz winning the late Bob Kerr's seat, for example) that have changed the complexion of the Legislature, they will have effected a sea change. The tide has been carrying GOP candidates in many cases. This year, Republicans pin their hopes on at least four top Senate races to give them control. Those races are Senate District 2, where political newcomer Ami Shaffer, Republican, faces another political newcomer in Democrat Sean Burrage; District 12, where Republican State Rep. Brian Bingman faces Democrat John Mark Young, the same man he defeated for the House seat two years ago; District 18, where incumbent Democrat Mary Easley is challenged by Republican Mark Wofford; and District 24, where incumbent Democrat Daisy Lawler faces Republican Anthony Sykes. Another race, in Senate District 26 pitting Democrat Tom Ivester against Republican Todd Russ, is on everyone's watch list. Stay with TMRO as we profile these top races in the days ahead.

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